Dalton Kates: NFL Draft Props Betting Tracker

Apr 25, 2022

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With NFL Draft season in full swing, here are all of the draft props I've personally placed this season. I'll update this tracker as more plays are made official. As always, the first place to get them is on Discord. This is the best way to take advantage of the best lines as they tend to move rather quickly after being posted.

2022 Draft NFL Draft Date & Time

Date: Thursday, April 28 (Round 1), Friday, April 29th ( Rounds 2 & 3) & Saturday, April 30th (Rounds 4-7)

Time: 8:00 PM EST (Round 1), 7:00 PM EST (Rounds and 3), &12:00 PM EST (Rounds 4-7)

Channels: NFL Network, ESPN & ABC, also FuboTV Livestream

More 2022 NFL Draft Resources: Mock Draft | Big Board | Move the Line Props Tracker | Draft Podcast Notes

2022 NFL Draft Prop Bets

[subscribe_betting]

1. Matt Corral to Be the First QB Drafted

Line: +1100
Date: February 21st
Book: PointsBet
Notes: This bet was placed before the combine as there was a lot of uncertainty about who the top quarterback was going to be. Matt Corral was the only major signal-caller to not be in front of teams due to injury.

Update: Since then, the picture has crystallized a bit more and Corral has fallen to +1800 on sites. It looks extremely unlikely Corral will be the first quarterback selected (let alone be a top-10 pick) as he has some “off-the-field” issues.

2. Kyle Hamilton Over 5.5 Draft Positon

Line: -135
Date: March 6th
Book: BetMGM
Notes: After doing some historical research, it’s clear safeties aren’t drafted high—only two safeties since 2000 have been drafted in the top five. Hamilton also only ran a 4.7 forty-yard dash at his Pro Day. He reminds me of Derwin James, who slid to 17 overall despite being a good prospect.

Update: His line is currently juiced on the over at 8.5. More and more credible media members are projecting him to fall outside of the top 10.

3. Malik Willis First Overall Pick

Line: +5000
Date: March 8th
Book: BetMGM
Notes: Despite it not being perceived as a strong quarterback class, a signal-caller has been taken first overall in 15 of the past 20 drafts. Jacksonville has been rumored to be interested in moving out of the first pick and the Lions at second overall have shown interest in Malik Willis. If a team falls in love with Willis, they’d likely have to jump the Lions to get there.

Update: As each day goes by, it looks less and less likely a team trades up to first overall for Willis. Regardless, a simple one-pick trade-up by the Lions can’t be ruled out.

4. Drake London First Wide Receiver Drafted

Line: +210
Date: March 10th
Book: FanDuel
Notes: This was a great price as it looks likely it’s a 50/50 coin flip with Garrett Wilson for the first overall wide receiver taken. Historically, wide receivers who weigh 210+ pounds get drafted in the top 10 almost four times more often than sub-190 pound wide receivers.

Update: This line has since moved to +125 as he’s the favorite alongside Wilson now. The Falcons and Jets look like potential landing spots.

5. Over 1.5 Safeties Drafted in the First Round

Line: -140
Date: March 11th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Kyle Hamilton was a sure lock with Daxton Hill likely also becoming a first-rounder. Add in potential first-rounders like Lewis Cine and Jaquan Brisker, and there are legitimately four safeties who could sneak into the first round.

Update: This line has moved to -160 and is still playable. We have three outs with Hill, Cine, and Brisker. Recent reports state Daxton Hill is moving up boards.

6. Malik Willis to Be the Second Overall Pick

Line: +750
Date: March 15th
Book: FanDuel
Notes: There’s only been one quarterback class in the last 20 years in which a quarterback didn’t go top-three in the NFL Draft. The positional value moves them up a ton and reports are the Lions do indeed like Willis.

Update: This line has moved to roughly +400 elsewhere and is still playable at +350 or lower odds at the moment. Sharp mock drafters like Benjamin Allbright and Josh Norris have recently placed him to the Lions.

7. Jaquan Brisker to Be the Second Safety Drafted

Line: +800
Date: March 17th
Book: BetRivers
Notes: Jaquan Brisker is one of three safeties behind Kyle Hamilton who is in consideration for first-round capital. While someone like Daxton Hill or Lewis Cine may have a better shot to be the second safety drafted, there’s lots of variance with safety preferences at the end of the first round. It’s likely a three-horse race.

Update: This line has since moved to +200. Brisker is more commonly being mocked right at the end of the first and early second in most mock drafts.

8. Over 0.5 Running Backs Drafted in Round 1

Line: +150
Date: March 21st
Book: DraftKings
Notes: There have only been two running back classes since 2002 in which a ball-carrier did not go in round one. With backs like Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III shredding the combine, along with their intriguing running back profiles, it seems like a 50/50 bet one of them gets drafted in the first round.

Update: This line is currently at +140. Anything lower than +120 is a good play for this. While the Bills seem like the only logical destination for a back in round one, the Jaguars' selection of Travis Etienne should have us become more open-minded about which teams could potentially shock us.

9. Garrett Wilson Over 10.5 Draft Position

Line: -105
Date: March 21st
Book: BetRivers
Notes: Dating back to 2000, only four sub-190-pound receivers have been drafted in the top 10. There are only two teams likely to take a wideout in the top 10 (Falcons or Jets).

Update: With the Jets being aggressive for Tyreek Hill, it’s looking more and more likely they select a wide receiver at 10th overall. Whether that's Wilson or another receiver remains to be seen. This is probably my least confident play right now.

10. Kenny Pickett to Be Drafted in the Top 10

Line: +150
Date: March 27th
Book: FanDuel
Notes: There’s a multitude of teams drafting in the top 10 with interest in quarterbacks (Lions, Panthers, Falcons, and Seahawks). The Panthers have been strongly linked to Kenny Pickett in this process with Matt Rhule recruiting Pickett in college.

Update: This is currently +100 on Fanduel. It currently looks like a toss-up at this moment as it seems Pickett could completely fall out of the top 10 if he is not drafted by the Panthers at six overall.

11. Ikem Ekwonu First Offensive Lineman Drafted

Line: -120
Date: March 29th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: It’s looking more and more likely Ikem Ekwonu is the preference to teams in the top four. The market is currently juiced a bit on the Under 3.5 Draft Position for Ekwonu, while the over 3.5 is heavily juiced for Evan Neal.

Update: This line moved to -140 and the Texans are the real wild card here. If no offensive tackle is taken top-three, the Jets may take Ekwonu at four overall as apparently, they do like him. Don't completely rule out Ekwonu at first overall just yet.

12. Jermaine Johnson to Be a Top-10 Pick

Line: -135
Date: March 29th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: The market has Jermaine Johnson juiced heavily on the Under 9.5 Draft Position, and this was a market mispricing we took advantage of. We know the Jets are very likely to walk out of the top 10 with one edge rusher, and Johnson has been linked to them.

Update: The lines moved him to a minimum of -165 for him to be a top-10 pick, which is closer to what his line should be.

13. Devin Lloyd to Be a Top-10 Pick

Line: +3500
Date: March 29th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Daniel Jeremiah previously had Devin Lloyd mocked in the top 10. Historically, one linebacker on average gets drafted top-10 each year. Lloyd is the likely candidate to be the first linebacker selected this year.

Update: This line has since moved to +1200. It’s still unlikely this happens, but there are outs for this to potentially cash.

14. Travon Walker Under 3.5 Draft Position

Line: -148
Date: March 30th
Book: FanDuel
Notes: All three teams in the top three need him and he’s constantly being mocked in the top three by sharp media analysts right now.

Update: This line moved to -235. Barring something unforeseen, it’s continuing to trend towards Walker as a top-three selection.

15. Quay Walker to Be the First Linebacker Drafted

Line: +2700
Date: April 3rd
Book: FanDuel
Notes: Tom Pelissero mentioned he was a hot name with 13 team visits in three weeks. He also mentioned he was in the conversation to be the first linebacker selected in the draft. With him running a 4.52 at the combine and having pedigree from that vaunted Georgia defense, it seems the NFL likes him a lot more than the media gave him credit for.

Update: This line has since moved to +1100 and it’s currently trending towards Walker potentially behind the favorite ahead of Nakobe Dean to be the second linebacker taken in this draft.

16. Ahmad "Sauce" Garnder to Be the Fifth-Overall Pick

Line: +550
Date: April 3rd
Book: BetRivers
Notes: Cornerback is a need for the Giants and we know they like Ahmad Gardner as they had a visit and private dinner with him. With two picks at five and seven, it seems unlikely Gardner falls past them. At these odds, it’s a fun stab with a need/player fit we know is likely to happen if he falls to them.

Update: This has since moved to +350 and will be fun to watch what the Jets do at fourth overall. Connor Hughes recently went on a limb to state the Jets were not drafting a cornerback at fourth overall, which would allow Gardner to likely slip into the Giants' lap. If this were the scenario, it remains to be seen whether the Giants would elect to take Gardner at five or seven.

17. Kyle Hamilton to Be the Second Safety Drafted

Line: +7000
Date: April 6th
Book: BetRivers
Notes: Our own Amr Gabr has been taking notes on the top draft experts' podcasts for nuggets and noted Daniel Jeremiah stated on his Move the Sticks podcast he wouldn’t be surprised if Daxton Hill went ahead of Kyle Hamilton in this draft. He referenced Derwin James (a highly touted prospect) fell to 17th overall and Hamilton’s 4.7 forty didn't help him. It’s looking more and more likely Hamilton slides down the draft.

18. Kayvon Thibodeaux to be the Second Overall Pick

Line: +800
Date: April 7th
Book: WynnBet
Notes: The Lions sent their whole contingent to Oregon's pro day. They also drafted Sewell last year in the first round and he also went to Oregon so they're already familiar with him from past exposure.

Update: This line moved to roughly +350 elsewhere and is likely unplayable until more information comes out. It's promising that locked-in guys like Peter Schrager are mocking Thibodeaux to the Lions.

19. Daxton Hill to be a First-Round Pick

Line: -120
Date: April 12th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: Hill has been getting a lot of steam as a potential first-rounder lately. Daniel Jeremiah went as far as to say he wouldn't be surprised if he was the first safety taken. Daxton Hill has an athletic profile and versatile skillset teams will covet.

20. Jameson Williams Under 16.5 Draft Position

Line: -115
Date: April 12th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: There's more drumbeat for Williams as the WR1 in this class and being selected top 10 overall by a multitude of locked-in sources. There are 7 teams picking 7 through 16 that all need WR help. There are also a few teams behind them with a need at WR that also have the ammo to move up and select him.

21. Quay Walker to be a First Round Pick

Line: +250
Date: April 12th
Book: DraftKings
Notes: There's more and more buzz for Quay as a first-rounder. After testing as an elite athlete and with a pedigree from playing at Georgia, he's valued higher in NFL circles than the media has caught on so far. He's had 13 top 30 visits in a 19-day span. Peter Schrager recently had him mocked to the Bills at 25th overall.

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