3 Overvalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks for 2022
Identifying overvalued quarterbacks is a tough but necessary exercise every season. Preseason and training camp clips dominate our timeline, pushing every player up. But only direct news (injuries, changes in practice reps) moves them down. It’s even harder for quarterbacks as we don’t get much information about them over the offseason.
More Overvalued Players: WR | RB | TE
But let’s be clear. Overvalued doesn’t mean bust. The actionable advice isn’t to fade. If anything, it’s to consider adjusting expectations. Think about Stefon Diggs last year. He finished as the WR7 after being the WR3 in 2020, and we still wanted more. We draft players with their ceiling in mind, but their floor is still a reasonable outcome. Let’s walk through three candidates for 2022 to marinate on as we head into our drafts.
Overvalued Quarterbacks for 2022
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
You can point to the first six weeks of the season as why Kyler Murray may take a step back in the ranks. He’ll be missing his primary receiver, and we saw the fallout last year. DeAndre Hopkins’s injury didn’t affect Arizona’s offensive tendencies, but it bought Murray down a tick as a passer.
| Metric | With Hopkins | Without Hopkins |
|---|---|---|
| aDOT | 8.5 | 7.7 |
| CPOE* | 7.5% | -1.40% |
| EPA per Play | 0.22 | -0.03 |
| Neutral Pass Rate | 57.0% | 57.4% |
| Offensive Plays per Game | 64.6 | 69.8 |
* - Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
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