NBA Player Prop Bets: Zion Williamson Will Bolster His MVP Case Against Utah

The NBA has finally evened out its scheduling, as we find ourselves amidst a week where there will be no fewer than four NBA games any given day of the week. An NBA fan and bettor’s dream. A bankroll’s dream? Well, that’s to be determined, but I’ve outlined my three favorite player props for Tuesday’s slate to hopefully get a head start on building your bankroll for the rest of the week.

When it comes to the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes as well as the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 truly makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not specifically paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (December 13, 2022)

[subscribe_betting]

Zion Williamson Over 26.5 Points (-125 at BetMGM)

After averaging 33.0 points per game en route to a Western Conference Player of the Week Award and vaulting the Pelicans to the No. 1 seed, Williamson has cemented himself in contention for the NBA MVP award. I fully expect him to continue his recent dominance against the Jazz on Tuesday, too.

The Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram yet again on Tuesday, marking the 10th game this season Williamson will play without him. In the nine previous games, Williamson averaged 28.7 points with a 29.3% usage rate in 35.8 minutes per game. All three of those metrics are boosts over his season-long rates, but the minutes stand out the most, as he’s averaged over five minutes per game less (30.7) in games with Ingram versus without.

He’s shooting 63.6% from the field in these games and continues to get to the rim at will, which serves as nightmare fuel for a Jazz team currently allowing the highest frequency of shots within six feet of the rim (40.8%) and the most attempts within six feet (36.7) in the entire NBA. With little to no interior resistance, Williamson should have a crystal-clear path to another monstrous game from a scoring standpoint.

Risk: 1.25 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.

BONUS BET: Pelicans Moneyline

Given how vital production around the rim is to Williamson’s success, I expect the Pelicans to go to him early and often at the rim. With virtually no way to stop him from getting to the rim or finding his teammates for drive-and-kicks, I don’t expect this to be a back-and-forth game throughout, as the sportsbooks are clearly expecting. I’m adding the Pelicans Moneyline as a bonus bet for this slate.

Risk: 1.24 units on BetRivers to win 1 unit.

Khris Middleton Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 at DraftKings)

The pain that was inflicted by this prop in the last article is hard to forget, but one must have the memory of a goldfish when approaching the next slate.

Khris Middleton is currently listed as probable after tweaking his ankle and exiting last game, but given the nature of this game, at home against the defending champions with Jrue Holiday already questionable, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he isn’t ready to roll.

He has a rock-solid history against the Warriors, averaging 25.0 points, 6.3 assists, and 3.8 rebounds against them across four games since the Bucks acquired Holiday. In the case Holiday misses, that would drastically raise Middleton’s ceiling. Last season, Middleton played 11 games without Holiday, averaging 21.4 points (+1.8), 6.1 assists (+0.7), and 5.5 rebounds (+0.1) per game with a 29.8% usage rate (+4.4%). Parlay that with the fact Andrew Wiggins, who was likely going to be Middleton’s primary defender, has already been ruled out and there’s far too much working in Middleton’s favor to avoid going back to the well.

Pulling the trigger is difficult, but I’m doubling down on Middleton tonight.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Chris Paul To Record A Double-Double (+120 at DraftKings)

Chris Paul has had a rollercoaster of a season, recently returning from an extended absence only to shoot 3-10 from the field in the first game without Devin Booker this season, only piling onto what’s been a brutal season from an efficiency standpoint (37.7% from the field this year).

Thankfully, a matchup with the Houston Rockets has served as a remedy for any and all ailments and struggles for guards this season, as they currently have the third-worst defensive rating (115.4) in the NBA and can run at a blistering pace if they get going. In this matchup, I’m happy to bank on expected regression to the mean from an efficiency standpoint, especially given Paul’s history without Booker active.

Last season in 11 games without Booker, Paul averaged 15 points (21.4% usage rate) and 10.5 assists in 33.8 minutes per game. He recorded 11 assists last game without Booker on 18 potential assists, numbers that should be in line with expectations for this game given his assist prop sitting at 10.5 across the industry. Assuming we muster up some efficiency from Paul as well, 10 points shouldn’t be difficult to reach.

Getting plus-money on a Paul double-double is rarely an opportunity we’re afforded as bettors, so I want to take advantage whenever possible.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.