NBA Player Prop Bets: Beal Remains the Real Deal

We finally made it! The first regular offseason in a long time and it felt like an eternity. There is a busy 12-game slate today and plenty has changed around the league. Preseason stats can be fool’s gold but comparing it with how teams and players were spoken about can give some nuggets that lead to value. All season Joe Metz and I will be mining for value here and in Discord.

Along with our plays, there are plenty of tools to help in prep as well. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Welcome back and let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today's NBA Player Prop Bets (October 19, 2022)

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Bradley Beal Over 22.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

There is some trepidation on my part for attempting to give a reason to make people watch the Washington Wizards but this line required a double-take.

Last season was clearly a disaster for Bradley Beal and the Wizards, and there is likely some negative feeling towards Beal because of the outlook of Washington in general, plus the fact Beal signed a supermax contract. With that said, in 40 games played last season, Beal still averaged 23.1 points. Beal last year averaged 5.5 seconds of touch time per possession, which was still in the top 30 in the league. So, Beal will have the ball.

Since the last time Beal played, Monte Morris and Kristaps Porzingis have been added to the roster. Morris should provide the adult PG Beal has thrived with so he does not have to do everything offensively but can focus on getting buckets. Porzingis is another offensive player who requires attention, unlike many bigs Beal played with, and he changes the shape of the defense, possibly giving Beal less resistance in getting to the basket.

Even looking at the matchup for tonight, it is against the lowly Indiana Pacers. Neither of these teams is expected to be great but defense outside of Myles Turner near the basket is not going to be the calling card for the Pacers. They are likely going to try and get out and run when possible, which should be the move when your team is built around Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield, and Bennedict Mathurin offensively. Take advantage while the number is this low because if Bradley Beal is close to himself, it will not be there for long.

Risk: 2.2 units on BetMGM to win 2 units. (Playable to -120)

Jonas Valanciunas Under 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105 at DraftKings)

Some teams are going to look very different or just have their offensive hierarchy change and one of the most obvious changes coming in New Orleans is with Zion Williamson returning this season.

Valanciunas has yet to play a regular season game with Williamson and you can imagine with how Williamson relentlessly drives and angle cuts into the paint, Jonas Valanciunas will be spending more time standing at the three-point line or flaring out on the baseline to give Williamson his space. That does not bode well for putting up points or rebounds for the big man.

Last season, while getting to spend a lot of time in or near the paint, Valanciunas averaged 31.4 PRA in 30.3 minutes per game. The big difference with projecting Valanciunas this year is the minutes floor is not as high with so many other bigs that could be better fitted next to Williamson. Larry Nance, Jaxson Hayes, and Willy Hernangomez can all contribute in the right roles, which does not even take into account possible minutes with Williamson as the only big on the floor.

Tonight’s matchup against the Nets is one that brings a level of concern for the number of minutes for Valanciunas. Brooklyn plays small in terms of style, if not height. Nic Claxton starts in the middle but the preseason showed they are not scared to have Ben Simmons be the primary backup and play four out with Simmons driving the offense in drive-and-kick fashion. What we do not know is coach Willie Green’s philosophy on adjusting to the opponent or making the opponent adjust to him, but with all that uncertainty, there is value on this under.

Risk: 1.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -116)

Nikola Vucevic Over 2.5 Assists (+120 at PointsBet)

By the end of last season, it is safe to say Nikola Vucevic was not the most popular player on the Bulls, but that was not due to his role as a passer in the offense.

The Bulls were one of the more stable teams over the offseason in terms of personnel changes, so more credence should be given to stretches of last season. After Lonzo Ball went out last season and Vucevic was required to do more playmaking, he averaged 3.1 assists on 5.8 potential assists. Most of those came in kicking back out from the post or in a short roll, off-setting a screen and getting the ball near the free-throw line, and making a decision. Those touches will still be there this season. Even in the preseason, in only 24.3 minutes, Vucevic averaged 3.3 assists.

With Ball out, Ayo Dosunmu starts at PG for the Bulls, but he has not been a high-usage offensive player that would deter from Vucevic getting his touches. In the preseason, head coach Billy Donovan seemed to make a point of increasing the post touches for Vucevic to get him comfortable and feeling involved early. That gives the Bulls a different point of attack and more ways to get the ball to Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in less stressful ways for the stars.

The matchup against what has been a very good Miami Heat defense is not easy, but there are reasons for optimism. Vucevic will see a lot of Bam Adebayo, and for the sake of this prop, that matchup could have Vucevic looking to pass more and lead to more potential assists than the 5.8 mentioned earlier. Also, Tyler Herro is starting for the Heat now and his defense is less than stellar, giving the Bulls guards someone to attack or that could lose them off ball and allow Vucevic to hit heading to the basket or for an open three.

Risk: 1 unit on PointsBet to win 1.2 units (Playable to +100)

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