Ryan Noonan: 4 Week 9 NFL Player Props I'm Betting

Sportsbooks are throwing us for a loop to start the season, dropping player props earlier and earlier each week. We're staying on top of things in our Discord chat, and you're missing out if you're not signed up to get our team's notifications. The subscriber conversations are terrific as well, and we notify the chat as we're placing the bet, to ensure that everyone has a shot at the same number and price we're getting if they want it. If you need help, please reach out. Help us help you!

You're probably tired of hearing me talk about it. Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. Player props, though? Player props are an entirely different story.

Without polling all of our betting subscribers here at 4for4, I'm fairly confident the majority of you play some form of fantasy football as well. If you're here, it's unlikely you're a casual player. You put in the necessary time and effort it takes to win money or humiliate your friends, ideally both. I'm the same way. I don't play many traditional redraft leagues these days, but I'm constantly thinking about game environments and player usage, and these thoughts correlate so well with the prop market.

There are similarities prop betting has with traditional markets like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, and this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need to have better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.

Don't forget to tune into our Prop Drop Show on Friday nights. Connor and I are joined by PropStarz, and we go around the horn, sharing our favorite props for the week. The best part is the back half of the show, where we take all the listener/viewer questions that we have time for. If you miss it live, catch the replay on YouTube.

More Week 9 Props: Connor Allen | Sam Hoppen

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Week 9 Player Prop Bets

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Diontae Johnson Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

For the second straight week in this space, it's wheels up for Diontae Johnson. Johnson is far and away Ben Roethlisberger's favorite target these days. In Week 6, Johnson ran a route on 93% of Roethlisberger's dropbacks and saw a target on 34% of those routes for a 54% share of the team's air yards. Insane numbers. Not so insane that he couldn't repeat them. Last week in Cleveland, Johnson had eerily similar utilization with 13 targets for the second consecutive week on his way to 98 receiving yards. His targets per route run numbers are more than double that of Chase Claypool since JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost for the season. Also noteworthy, Chicago is dead-last in defensive DVOA against their opponent's top receiver.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 on DraftKings.

Ja'Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Week 8 was a relatively quiet one for the league's top rookie wide receiver, and I'm buying the dip in this spot against the Browns. The Bengals are home for the first time since Week 5 and will be looking to bounce back in a big way after a disappointing fourth-quarter collapse against the Jets. Ja'Marr Chase had an unusually low average depth of target last week, seemingly flip-flopping roles with Tee Higgins. I like both Higgins and Chase in this spot against a Cleveland defense stout against the run but susceptible to elite passing games, and this number on Chase is too good to ignore. He had topped this in each of the four games prior to last week's 32-yard dud. Our projections have him at a blistering 109.7 yards. Cleveland has given up huge days to Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks and Diontae Johnson this season, and we'll add Chase to the list after this week.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Jarvis Landry Over 4.5 receptions (-135, Caesars)

This one is pretty straightforward. Jarvis Landry has topped this mark in all of the games he's played from start to finish this season, and his target competition just got a bit thinner this week, if you hadn't heard. The Bengals are fourth in rushing success rate allowed, and their defensive line has played terrific all season. The path to least resistance for the Browns is through the air. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone and Donovan Peoples-Jones knicked up, Landry is in line for 8-10 targets this week.

Risk: 1.35 units to win 1 unit on Ceasars.

Tyler Conklin Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Caesars)

I anticipate the Vikings being forced to go a bit more pass-heavy than they'd like in order to keep up with the Ravens this week, and Tyler Conklin has emerged as the clear third option in this passing game behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. He's compiled 71 and 57 receiving yards in the past two outings, and Baltimore is a sneaky-good spot for pass-catching tight ends. The Ravens have given up a league-high 79.7 receiving yards per game to the tight end position this season, and that's backed up by their 31st ranking in TE aFPA. Our projections have Conklin set for 45.9 receiving yards.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Caesars.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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