Connor Allen: 4 Week 3 Player Props I'm Betting

As the legalization of sports betting continues to explode, more and more people are diving into a new way of speculating on sports. For those just starting off, I broke down some of the basics in my gambling 101 piece. Among every category of bets, player props remain the most beatable in the long run. Last year I hit 59% of my bets for +35 units on the season. The two years prior were much of the same, hitting 57% and 58% of my player props for profitable seasons. I have improved every year and think that trend will continue with new tools. I’ve already fired off a handful of bets for Week 3 and will be adding more here. If you are a betting subscriber, it is vital to be in Discord. We have it set up so that you can get push notifications for just the plays our staff posts. Just go to role assign, then scroll up and click the little emoji under “Weekly Prop Plays.”

More Week 3 Player Props: Sam Hoppen | Ryan Noonan

Week 2 Review: Last week had so much potential. We ran pretty pure early on. Jaylen Waddle crushed his props quickly, Jarvis Landry played and then was ruled out which cashed our unders and Ja'Marr Chase reeled in a long bomb as we predicted. It got bad thereafter. David Montgomery under 2.5 receptions missed by one catch. Jonathan Taylor saw just one target as the Colts peppered their wide receivers with targets. Russell Gage was borderline pathetic but somehow caught five passes for 28 receiving yards, cashing our under 50 receiving yards bet but busting the under 4.5 receptions. David Johnson went from being the clear third back in the rotation in Week 2 to the clear No. 2, receiving six carries and easily destroying our under. A.J. Dillon didn’t get any goal-line work and ceded touches to Kylin Hill in the waning moments of Green Bay’s win. It was far from my best showing but we now have another week of usage in the books and a better understanding of how to beat the prop markets. Onto Week 3…

Week 3 Player Prop Bets

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Alvin Kamara Under 15.5 Carries (-130 at DraftKings)

Alvin Kamara racked up 20 carries in Week 1 in the Saints' domination over the Packers, but they are now 3-point underdogs to the New England Patriots on the road. This is also essentially the Saints' third-straight road game after a Week 1 relocation to Jacksonville. I have extremely low expectations for the offense as a whole after putting up just 128 total yards against the Panthers last week. They have played at the seventh-slowest pace so far and are averaging just 51.5 plays through two weeks (H/T Pat Thorman). This should be a slow game in general that limits volume on both sides.

We have Kamara projected for just 11.2 carries. Dating back to last season, he has gone under this number in 14-of-17 games (82%).

Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Ty'Son Williams Under 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-125 at DraftKings)

Ty'Son Williams's first two games: 13 and nine carries. The Ravens rarely ride a single running back and Devonta Freeman looked like he had a bit of juice last week. We have Williams projected for nine carries—well under his 14-carry total.

Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Chris Godwin Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Antonio Brown testing positive for COVID-19 means he needs two negative tests in 24 hours to be good to go for the game. I like this bet even if he does play without a week of practice. If he's out, it's an even better play. Through two weeks, Antonio Brown saw 28% of the team’s air yards and averaged five targets per game. This screams blow-up game for Chris Godwin with lessened target competition in a 55-point game total, with both teams expected to pass a ton. With 50 and 36 pass attempts by Tom Brady through two games, it’s easy to imagine another 40+ attempt performance from him as both teams go back and forth. We have Godwin projected for 76 yards but in this spot, he has a high target floor and massive upside.

Risk: 1.1 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Joe Mixon Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-110 at DraftKings)

I already fired this in the Discord but wanted to re-hash it a bit here. Joe Mixon has 29 and 20 rushing attempts, respectively, in his first two games of the season. He has gone over this number in 15 of his last 17 games.

The Bengals also rank second-to-last in pass rate over expectation, meaning even in situations they should be passing, they are still running the ball.

Our projections have him at 19 attempts. Since the Bengals are just slight 3-point dogs against the Steelers with a banged-up Ben Roethlisberger, I'm not worried about game script getting out of hand. I would play this up to 17.5.

Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

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