NFL Divisional Round: Spread Bets

Wildcard Weekend Recap: My picks have been comically bad since the second half of the regular season and last week things reached a new low. My plays went 0-3 ATS and two of the teams I selected—Patriots and Eagles—weren’t competitive. I try to be more about the process than the results, but the results have been so bad that we’re well overdue to question the process. I made several tweaks to my capping I hope will yield better results—much better results—for the Divisional round.

I won’t fault you if you continue to use my picks as fade material. I’ve earned it.

Divisional Round NFL Spread Bets

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Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The Titans set a record this season for most players used in an NFL season. The fact they were so banged-up and still earned the No. 1 seed is a testament to what Mike Vrabel has built. If he doesn’t win Coach of the Year it would be a crime.

That said, even if Derrick Henry is activated for Saturday’s Divisional round meeting with the Bengals, are we sure he’ll be effective? Far be it for me to question anything Henry does on a football field but this will be his first game back after having surgery on his foot. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility the Titans ease him back in hopes Saturday won’t be their final game of the season.

Having Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown on the same field should be a boost to the Titans' offense, at least on paper. The fact remains we haven’t seen this version of Tennessee’s offense since the start of the season. Would anyone be shocked if things looked disjointed offensively for the Titans to start the game? I certainly wouldn’t be surprised.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are flying high after winning their first playoff game in over 31 years. They weren’t overly impressive from start to finish and they certainly benefited from some shoddy officiating. The Raiders also had an opportunity to tie the game in the end, but Cincinnati’s defense stood strong.

Joe Burrow has thrown 13 consecutive passing touchdowns since his last interception in Week 13. He’s also gone three straight games, including the playoffs, with a 70% completion rate, which is the longest streak by a Bengals QB since Carson Palmer accomplished the feat in four straight games in 2004. Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase also have seven completions on passes 30+yards downfield, which is tied for most by a QB-WR duo this season, including playoffs.

While I see the Titans starting slow offensively, I envision the Bengals coming out fast. Give me Cincinnati.

Pick: 1.10 units on Bengals +2.5 (1st Half) at FanDuel to win 1.0.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

A lot of people will focus on the QB matchup for Saturday’s tilt between the Niners and Packers, and rightfully so. Do you want to side with Aaron Rodgers, who easily could win the MVP this season after he terrorized the league during the regular season? Or do you want to align yourself with Jimmy Garoppolo, who mixes in great play with truly mind-numbing throws and miscues that benefit opponents like the Cowboys a week ago?

Of course, if betting football was only about backing the better quarterback, sportsbooks wouldn’t exist. If you want to back Rodgers and call it a day, I don’t blame you. The path to the NFC now leads through Lambeau Field and Rodgers is playing better than any QB in the league, including Tom Brady.

The key question for Saturday night’s matchup in Green Bay is whether or not the Packers can stop the 49ers’ run game. Kyle Shanahan’s Wide Zone System gave Green Bay fits in the 2019 NFC Championship Game when Raheem Mostert rushed for over 200 yards and San Francisco averaged over five yards before contact per rush. Of course, Mike Pettine was Green Bay’s defensive coordinator that season and not Joe Barry, whose defense held the 49ers to only 67 rushing yards when these two teams met in Week 3.

Still, all is not right with the Packers’ run defense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Green Bay allowed the third-most yards per rush this season and the second-most yards before contact per rush. NFL Next Gen Stats also notes the Packers only put an average of just 6.3 defenders in the box against the run, which is the lightest in the NFL. With the way the Pack defended the run against the Niners in Week 3, there’s no reason for Barry to adjust his strategy, but will Green Bay’s defenders execute as well as they did that night in San Francisco?

The other aspect to consider is that Nick Bosa (concussion protocol) and Fred Warner (ankle) are both expected to play. There’s only so much a team can do to slow down Rodgers, but not having Bosa or Warner would have been a death knell to San Francisco’s chances to pull off the upset. With both defenders set to play, coupled with Shanahan’s Wide Zone System having more success against the Packers this time around, I like the Niners to hang.

Pick: 1.10 units on 49ers +5.5 at DraftKings to win 1.0.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I know how tempting it’ll be for a lot of bettors to only lay three points with Tom Brady and the Bucs, but there’s a reason why this number is so low.

Over the last two seasons, Brady and Co. are 29-7 versus opponents other than the Rams. In their two meetings with the Rams the last two years, Tampa is averaging 38.5 rushing yards per game and just 2.5 yards per rush, compared to 103.1 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per rush against other teams.

Sean McVay is also one of the few play callers who has had success against Todd Bowles’s defense. In their two wins against the Bucs the last two seasons, the Rams averaged 33.7 points per game. Bowles’s defense is fast and aggressive, which works when a team has defenders like the Bucs employ at all three levels. Their linebackers are some of the most versatile in the league, capable of defending the run as well as dropping into coverage to take on running backs, tight ends and receivers. They’re also effective blitzers, which Patrick Mahomes felt in the Super Bowl last season.

That said, McVay’s system is designed to take advantage of overzealous defenses that fly to the football. The Rams love to use play-action on early downs, which helps neutralize a defense like the Bucs that love to disguise their blitzes.

In their matchup with the Bucs earlier this season, the Rams thrived on third down because they won on early downs. The Bucs blitzed Matthew Stafford plenty in that game, yet he was only sacked once. Tampa won’t survive if it can’t get after Stafford.

On the other side, Aaron Donald was his typical self, harassing Brady and not allowing him to simply avoid the rush by moving around in the pocket. He had no room to move, which is what the Saints have done to Brady in the regular season the last two years. Raheem Morris didn’t have the defenders in Atlanta last year to beat Brady, but he’s had to design five game plans against the future Hall of Famer the last two years as a defensive assistant for the Falcons and now as the Rams’ DC. Either way, he’ll be ready.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams beat the Bucs outright, but I’ll take the field goal in what should be a tight game throughout.

Pick: 1.10 units on Rams +3 at FanDuel to win 1.0.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

These were arguably the most impressive teams that played Wild Card Weekend, as the Bills humiliated the Patriots and the Chiefs went through the Steelers like a hot knife through butter.

Even though they were taking on a Pittsburgh team that needed all 18 weeks just to make the AFC playoffs as the bottom seed, there was a moment in their victory last week when I thought, “Holy sh*t, the Chiefs are back.” I hadn’t felt that way for most of the season and that perhaps is reason enough to back a Buffalo team that went into Arrowhead earlier this season and upset the Chiefs on their home turf.

For me, however, it’s an opportunity to back the Chiefs—the real version of the Chiefs. The one that carved up the league two years ago en route to a championship. The one that generated so many conversations about whether or not Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid were building a dynasty. That Chiefs team.

As late as November, Kansas City was still struggling with defenses that utilized two-high coverages. Opponents decided to take away the big play the Chiefs offense has thrived on over the years and Mahomes and/or Reid never adjusted. Last week, however, Mahomes showed more of a willingness to take the underneath throw and carve a defense up five yards at a time.

If that Mahomes shows up on Sunday night, then Buffalo will have a more difficult time escaping Arrowhead with a victory. Perhaps I’m slighting Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense, which was incredibly impressive carving up Bill Belichick’s defense last week. However, Allen and the Bills haven't won a road playoff game and with the number being this low, I’m rolling with the Chiefs.

Pick: 1.10 units on Chiefs -1.5 at DraftKings to win 1.0.

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