Fantasy Football Weather Report: Week 14

The playoffs are finally upon us. Well, at least most of us. I hope your squads have made it into the dance with a fair shot at taking down your league. After last week, especially Monday, we’d like it if our players didn’t have to deal with any bad weather during their games. Luckily, the forecast looks clear as we head into the weekend. I’ve got a couple of games to keep an eye on, but let’s look into that wild and windy game in Buffalo a bit more first.

Week 13 Recap

What a game on Monday night. There was snow whipping sideways in one pre-game video. Another displayed the goalposts dancing in the wind. The weather laced into almost every comment, so let’s see what the data says about the conditions.

Weather obs from Monday night align with the day’s forecast from my report. As I expected, the max speed was higher, but it reduced as the game progressed. Team intent from Buffalo largely met expectations.

Even with the Patriots passing just three times, I’m surprised the Bills were only seven plays off their season average. Plus, they had a sharper drop in their neutral passing rate, which I’ll need to account for in future games. Overall, their intent on a macro scale compared to their previous matches against New England isn’t a surprise. I even zoomed in on their early-down passing rate to confirm.

As the wind trailed off, their passing game picked up. Two other reasons do exist, though. They needed to score to win, and their running game barely topped 50 yards. Both are valid, but Allen (arguably their best runner) didn’t have more designed runs and the game was within one score. Buffalo’s game plan and not taking the layups (e.g., short passes, designed runs) was confusing. Regardless, this game serves as an excellent reference point for poor conditions in the future.

Games to Monitor

BLUF: No concern from me. I’m noting these games to be thorough, but we can make roster decisions without the weather as a factor.

12/12 Update: Max wind speeds are up to 18 mph in Cleveland and 16 mph in Kansas City. While both cross the threshold for concern, neither should downgrade our expectations for the games. The direction of the wind in Cleveland is with the stadium, so both quarterbacks can quickly adjust and the stadium's height will provide a natural barrier. For Kansas City, the flow goes directly into the side of the stadium where the seating goes up to 260 feet. I wouldn't expect any impacts here either.

Games Impacted by Wind

Las Vegas Raiders (19.25-point implied total) at Kansas City Chiefs (28.75)

As I stated upfront, there’s no concern for this game. However, should the wind speed drastically increase, its direction may look like it’ll impact the game. It won’t.

Sure, winds from the SSW could create an onfield cross breeze if the velocity surpassed 20 mph. However, the stadium’s design is helpful in this regard.

You can see how the stadium’s elevated on either side of the field to seat more people. At its peak, Arrowhead Stadium is estimated to be 260 feet tall (one of the tallest in the league). Again, we’d need to see a significant shift in the forecast just to downgrade the kickers. So, until things change, our only worry is the Chiefs’ passing game.

Baltimore Ravens (20.25) at Cleveland Browns (22.75)

Like the Kansas City game, I’m just being thorough in the event the winds tick up over 15 mph. But, even in that scenario, I still wouldn’t change my stance on the game.

The wind direction aligns with the stadium’s azimuth (55.7 degrees). Less chance of a crosswind. Less concern. Plus, the stadium itself stands at 171 feet. Cleveland’s intent hasn’t historically shifted until the wind exceeds 20 mph. In Week 3 against Chicago (22 mph winds), Mayfield’s PROE dropped to -9%, while the previous weeks were up at -4%. So, even if the winds get up to 16-17 mph, I wouldn’t change any thoughts about the passing game.

Games Impacted by Cold

Chicago Bears (15.25-point implied total) at Green Bay Packers (27.75)

I’m trying to get out ahead of the narratives you’ll hear all weekend.

“Imagine getting hit by A.J. Dillon when it’s freezing outside. He’s a smash play.”

“It’s Lambeau Field in December, so start the running backs.”

Yes, he is. And, yes, you should. But not just because it’ll be cold outside.

The above is from a 2019 study I ran with data back to 2003. Quarterbacks don’t significantly pass fewer times in cold weather. However, the chance for high-volume games (40-plus attempts) goes away. So, if you were expecting an above-average passing day for Rodgers, you might wind up disappointed.

Chicago is 24th in rushing EPA since Week 7 with injuries to their interior defense. Their secondary hasn’t been any better (30th in dropback EPA). So, as a result, teams have used balanced attacks to move the ball. Four out of the last six teams have had a lesser PROE against Chicago compared to their previous games. Also, since Rodgers' toe injury, Green Bay has had a 48.8% red-zone passing rate. The game environment already lends itself to more work for the Packers’ running backs without the cold being a reason to do it.