NBA Best Bets: Let's be a Part of it, New York, New York
Happy Matsuyama Masters Monday! Now that all that golf is out of the way, we can focus on another full slate of NBA action. There are a few games that will be fun to watch, but all the rest/injury losses, in addition to the brutal schedule, leaves us a lot of uncertainty. Let’s wade through the morass and see if we can find a winner for the second day in a row.
Projections for April 12, 2021
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| Projection Based on Last 10 Games | Baseline Projection | Odds | ROI Season to Date | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road Streak | Back to Back? | 3rd Game in 4 Days? | Offensive Rating | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | OFF Rtg | Pace | Team | Spread & Total | EFG% | TO% | OREB% | FT Rate | Oliver % | Spread | Total | Team Total | Opener Spread Units | Closer Spread Units | Opener Over Units | Closer Over Units | ||
| LAL | 5 | No | No | 101.1 | 101.4 | 102.5 | 5.5 | 51.7% | 15.3% | 40.6% | 20.0% | 35.6% | LAL | 102.4 | 101.1 | 103.6 | 5.1 | 52.4% | 14.6% | 35.7% | 20.1% | 34.8% | 2 | 205.5 | 101.75 | (4.36) | (2.45) | (17.73) | (14.82) |
| NYK | 0 | Yes | Yes | 106.5 | 101.4 | 108.0 | 210.6 | 51.7% | 13.3% | 37.7% | 20.9% | 34.7% | NYK | 107.5 | 101.1 | 108.7 | 212.3 | 52.6% | 13.0% | 33.6% | 21.2% | 34.2% | 103.75 | 7.18 | 8.09 | (15.82) | (14.82) | ||
| PHI | 3 | No | Yes | 105.0 | 101.1 | 106.2 | 2.1 | 51.9% | 12.8% | 37.5% | 27.1% | 35.5% | PHI | 109.1 | 101.3 | 110.5 | 0.5 | 53.4% | 12.4% | 34.3% | 26.0% | 35.2% | -3 | 223.5 | 113.25 | (1.45) | 5.27 | (12.91) | (6.27) |
| DAL | 0 | Yes | No | 107.1 | 101.1 | 108.3 | 214.5 | 53.9% | 12.2% | 41.5% | 18.9% | 35.7% | DAL | 109.6 | 101.3 | 111.1 | 221.6 | 54.6% | 12.1% | 35.0% | 19.1% | 34.7% | 110.25 | (3.36) | (3.36) | (11.00) | (11.00) | ||
| SAS | 3 | Yes | Yes | 110.0 | 101.8 | 112.0 | (5.8) | 53.1% | 11.0% | 39.3% | 20.1% | 34.9% | SAS | 110.7 | 102.5 | 113.4 | (7.4) | 53.6% | 11.0% | 33.8% | 20.2% | 34.0% | -6 | 220.5 | 113.25 | 0.55 | 1.55 | (1.36) | (1.36) |
| ORL | 0 | Yes | Yes | 104.3 | 101.8 | 106.2 | 218.1 | 49.4% | 10.7% | 39.9% | 19.7% | 33.4% | ORL | 103.5 | 102.5 | 106.1 | 219.5 | 49.5% | 11.2% | 34.4% | 19.1% | 32.3% | 107.25 | (5.27) | (0.45) | (11.00) | (4.27) | ||
| BKN | 0 | No | No | 111.8 | 102.8 | 115.0 | (2.5) | 54.7% | 12.0% | 42.4% | 19.9% | 36.3% | BKN | 116.3 | 100.5 | 116.8 | (6.3) | 55.5% | 9.6% | 37.7% | 17.4% | 34.8% | -6 | 236.5 | 121.25 | (5.27) | (5.27) | (0.45) | 8.09 |
| MIN | 0 | Yes | Yes | 109.4 | 102.8 | 112.5 | 227.5 | 52.0% | 11.2% | 40.4% | 25.2% | 35.4% | MIN | 110.0 | 100.5 | 110.5 | 227.2 | 53.2% | 11.2% | 35.1% | 18.5% | 33.9% | 115.25 | (7.18) | (9.09) | 1.36 | (0.55) | ||
| WAS | 4 | No | Yes | 103.0 | 105.4 | 108.5 | 13.8 | 51.2% | 13.4% | 37.8% | 20.8% | 34.5% | WAS | 104.0 | 105.6 | 109.8 | 13.0 | 51.2% | 12.7% | 32.8% | 21.8% | 33.5% | 12.5 | 234.5 | 111 | (2.36) | (2.36) | (4.27) | (4.27) |
| UTA | 0 | No | No | 116.1 | 105.4 | 122.4 | 230.9 | 59.2% | 13.5% | 41.7% | 15.8% | 37.8% | UTA | 116.3 | 105.6 | 122.8 | 232.6 | 58.4% | 13.0% | 36.1% | 20.2% | 36.9% | 123.5 | 12.82 | 11.91 | (4.36) | (5.27) | ||
| CHI | 4 | Yes | Yes | 110.4 | 102.1 | 112.7 | 3.7 | 54.9% | 12.2% | 40.1% | 16.3% | 35.5% | CHI | 108.2 | 102.2 | 110.6 | 2.3 | 54.8% | 13.5% | 34.7% | 15.6% | 34.6% | 2.5 | 229.0 | 113.25 | 3.36 | 2.45 | (2.36) | (2.36) |
| MEM | 0 | Yes | Yes | 114.0 | 102.1 | 116.4 | 229.1 | 55.4% | 10.6% | 45.0% | 18.6% | 36.6% | MEM | 110.4 | 102.2 | 112.9 | 223.5 | 54.0% | 11.2% | 37.2% | 18.5% | 34.6% | 115.75 | 7.18 | 6.27 | (4.27) | (3.27) | ||
| SAC | 1 | No | No | 110.0 | 101.0 | 111.1 | 1.6 | 54.5% | 11.5% | 38.3% | 17.7% | 35.0% | SAC | 110.3 | 102.1 | 112.7 | 2.4 | 54.6% | 11.3% | 32.3% | 18.8% | 34.0% | 3.5 | 231.5 | 114 | (7.18) | (9.09) | 4.27 | 5.27 |
| NOP | 1 | Yes | Yes | 111.5 | 101.0 | 112.7 | 223.7 | 55.0% | 12.0% | 40.0% | 22.0% | 36.3% | NOP | 112.7 | 102.1 | 115.1 | 227.8 | 54.9% | 11.7% | 36.7% | 21.8% | 35.5% | 117.5 | (4.27) | (7.18) | 13.82 | 12.91 | ||
| DEN | 0 | Yes | Yes | 111.3 | 101.6 | 113.1 | (1.3) | 54.7% | 13.3% | 45.0% | 19.9% | 37.2% | DEN | 114.9 | 102.0 | 117.2 | (5.9) | 54.1% | 13.0% | 33.0% | 19.9% | 34.5% | -3.5 | 229.0 | 116.25 | (2.45) | (4.36) | 1.36 | 4.27 |
| GSW | 0 | No | Yes | 110.0 | 101.6 | 111.8 | 225.0 | 54.5% | 12.6% | 41.2% | 17.9% | 35.9% | GSW | 109.1 | 102.0 | 111.3 | 228.5 | 54.3% | 12.5% | 26.9% | 18.9% | 33.1% | 112.75 | (4.36) | (6.27) | (2.45) | (7.18) | ||
| HOU | 2 | No | Yes | 103.9 | 101.9 | 105.8 | 8.5 | 53.0% | 13.9% | 40.4% | 14.7% | 35.0% | HOU | 104.5 | 102.3 | 107.5 | 8.4 | 52.7% | 13.9% | 34.6% | 16.0% | 33.9% | 13 | 228.5 | 107.75 | (19.64) | (18.64) | (10.09) | (11.00) |
| PHX | 0 | No | No | 112.2 | 101.9 | 114.3 | 220.1 | 53.7% | 10.2% | 39.8% | 19.5% | 34.9% | PHX | 112.4 | 102.3 | 115.9 | 223.4 | 55.0% | 11.1% | 33.8% | 18.4% | 34.3% | 120.75 | 9.09 | 12.00 | (2.36) | (0.45) | ||
LEGEND
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EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
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TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
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OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
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FT Rate = FT/FGA
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Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)
Best NBA Bet of the Day (April 12, 2021)
New York Knicks -2 vs. Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue their injury break and Kyle Kuzma is questionable. New York is only without Mitchell Robinson tonight. The Knicks are playing their third game in four nights and are on a back-to-back after a win over the Toronto Raptors yesterday, while the Lakers should be rested after their surprising 25-point win over the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday.
The Lakers are in rough shape, especially if Kyle Kuzma does miss this game. That would leave them with only one offensive threat in Dennis Schröder. They’ve been just above break even on the road this year, but a loser over their last 10 games against the spread. The Knicks have been molded by Tom Thibodeau into a tough defensive team that loves playing at home. They’ve been profitable overall this year, but 2/3 of what you see above came at Madison Square Garden. The schedule spot does concern me a little, but I think that’s why we’re getting some value on this number. This opened at 3.5 and the Lakers took money offering us a more valuable number on New York. I’m happy to back the Knicks at home against a Lakers squad missing its top stars.
Risk: 1.1 units on New York Knicks -2 on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
Quick Slate Rundown (April 12, 2021)
Philadelphia 76ers -3 at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks struggled from deep in their two-point loss to San Antonio. Philadelphia is on the last game of a four-game road trip and play Brooklyn on Wednesday in their return home. I show a little value on the Mavericks, but it's a very bad matchup for them. Ben Simmons can do as good of a job as anyone against Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid has performed well against Kristaps Porzingis. I would still pick Dallas if I had to choose a side, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
San Antonio Spurs -6 at Orlando Magic
Both teams are on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. The market and my projections align with what should be a very messy game. As I’ve mentioned before, Orlando is piecing together a roster every night and the Spurs continue to confuse with their lineup choices. I think the Spurs could easily run away with this game, but with all the scheduling concerns and Gregg Popovich's consistently curious coaching choices, I’m happy to pass on this one.
Brooklyn Nets -6 at Minnesota Timberwolves
No James Harden or Kyrie Irving for the Nets, but they do have Kevin Durant. The Timberwolves are only missing Malik Beasley. I was tempted to bet Minnesota earlier at a better number, but they took money this morning and are now within range of my number. You’ll see my projections like the under, but my Nets totals have been off all season. Also, never bet an under when Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell are playing—they put up a lot of points and give up even more. Minnesota might be able to put up a big enough number to keep this close, but I’m not betting on it.
Washington Wizards +12.5 at Utah Jazz
This game landed right on my number. Bradley Beal is probable, but Utah has been stellar at home covering a lot of big numbers. The altitude has a big impact on opponents and Washington will be playing their fifth game on the road. Mike Conley Jr. is out (rest) tonight, which could mean Beal will have a big night in his return. That would likely mean we see a backdoor cover for the Wizards as they’ve done so many times before, but I’m happy to pass.
Chicago Bulls +2.5 at Memphis Grizzlies
My projections like the under in this spot, but both teams ought to be fatigued as both are playing their second game in two nights and their third game in four nights. In these situations, we tend to see teams’ deficiencies get even worse. This means defense for both teams, especially Chicago. Both teams’ offensive performances have picked up recently, as you can see in my projection based on their last 10 games. I’m going to forego my numbers and pass on the total.
Sacramento Kings +3.5 at New Orleans Pelicans
Sacramento has the rest advantage, but my numbers are still close to what the market is offering. My projections show the slightest bit of value on the under, but I’m not wagering on that, given how profitable both teams have been when betting over this year. It should be a fun game to watch. The Kings have the backcourt advantage while the Pelicans should win the frontcourt. Their first two meetings were fast-paced affairs and I expect nothing different tonight, but nothing stands out as value in the betting markets.
Denver Nuggets -3.5 at Golden State Warriors
Another game, another double bad scheduling spot. There's a little value on Denver, but I’m passing on the Nuggets because they’re missing Jamal Murray. The Warriors also match up nicely against Denver. Draymond Green can cover Nikola Jokic as well as anyone and the Nuggets don’t have a good option to defend Steph Curry. This should be a great game and a possible playoff preview if the Warriors can hang onto their spot. Enjoy the game, but I wouldn’t suggest you wager on anything in it.
Houston Rockets +13 at Phoenix Suns
The Houston tankathon continues and what better place to pick up an easy loss, but Phoenix? Most of the success for the Suns against the spread you see in the table above was in games at home. My projections show some value on Houston and the under, but it’s harder to forecast outcomes in situations like that. Given Houston’s roster and seeming lack of effort, I can’t reliably tell you what to do with such a big spread. It’s hard to trust the under because we’re looking at a likely blowout, and the fourth quarters in blowouts are often very high scoring. I have to pass on this game.
*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter or subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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