Grambling State vs. Jackson State Betting Preview & Best Bet

Jan 29, 2022

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Last year, Jackson State was able to rely on their defense to guide them to a perfect 11-0 Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) record. Wins have been a bit tougher to come by this season despite again boasting some of the better defensive stats in the conference. The issue has been a very ineffective offense, one that, in fact, has been unable to crack the 60-point mark in four out of seven SWAC games so far (2-5 in conference play). A team that doesn’t shoot many threes (because they don’t make many threes when they do), and runs with a very slow, methodical pace like the Tigers (this is the last time I will refer to a team by their mascot since both teams are the Tigers) can get themselves in trouble with slow starts, as these are not attributes of teams built to play in comeback mode for long stretches of the game.

Senior forward Jayveous McKinnis leads the aforementioned defense and also ranks 15th nationally in rebounds per game. He was named the SWAC preseason Defensive Player of the Year, and he has lived up to that billing thus far. He’ll need to be sharp in the paint, as his opponents allow the second-lowest rate of offensive rebounds in the league. Grambling State is an experienced squad led by senior point guard Tra’Michael Moton, a facilitator who can, on occasion, take over scoring (24 points on 10-15 shooting versus Bethune-Cookman earlier in January).

The fun part of this matchup, and maybe a bit of an insight into how the market values home court, is that despite these glaring weaknesses, the Tigers will be a 6-point favorite when they play host to in-state rival, Grambling State, on Saturday. Grambling State is a bit of a yin to their yang, coming in with a semi-respectable offense and a horrid defense. Jackson State won both matchups between these squads last season but, barring a collision in the conference tournament, this will be the only time these teams will face off this school year. Overall, Grambling State’s strength of schedule has been slightly easier of the two this year so far, but both rank amongst the toughest in the nation, as SWAC schools land on many Power Five schedules early in the year as a “tune-up” opponent.

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Jackson State vs. Grambling State Betting Odds

	Jackson State	Grambling State
Spread	-6	+6
Moneyline	-278	+220
Over/Under	125.5 (-110)

*Lines accurate at time of publication.

Jackson State vs. Grambling State Best Bet

Grambling State +6 (-110, Caesars)

Considering how low this total is and Jackson State’s penchant for rough offensive outings, I think there is a bit of value in taking the points with Grambling State in this one. They have the lowest turnover rate in the league, the second-best free throw percentage and have averaged above 75 points per game during a three-game win streak they come in on. If they can get anywhere near that level of output, I don’t see Jackson State being able to match them offensively, and the upset may be on.

Risk: 1.1 units on Caesars to win 1 unit.