2021 Open Championship Betting Card Preview

Jul 14, 2021

Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

The year's last major tees off early on Thursday morning, or perhaps late Wednesday evening, depending on where you live. Shane Lowry has been the defending champion for nearly two years since the 2020 Open Championship was a victim of last season's truncated schedule. The Irishman is looking to defend his title, this time in England, at Royal St. George's Golf Club, about 20 miles outside of London. Only the Old Course at St. Andrew's has played host to more Open Championships than St. George's, a classic coastal links test that last hosted the event in 2011.

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Royal St. George's has proven to be one of the more difficult scoring courses in the Open Championship rotation. Famous for its uneven lies, impossibly deep bunkers and tall sand dunes, Royal St. George's proximity to the English Channel invites strong winds, which can wreak havoc on the field at any time. It's simply a different version of golf, and experience on links-style courses will play a massive role this week. As noted by Ron Klos, eight of the last 10 Open winners finished in at least the top 15 in one of their three previous Open starts.

Early reports have the rough playing more penal than expected during practice rounds, which is challenging when a good shot off the tee can find the rough due to fairway runoffs and uneven terrain. It's a second-shot golf course, but the greens are more difficult to hit than your standard Tour event, or even your standard Open. Per Justin Ray, there have been three instances at The Open since 2003 where the field hit less than 56% of the greens in regulation, and two of those were here at Royal St. George's. You'll save yourself a lot of headaches if you find the green, but you'll need to scramble well to contend this week.

Past Winners at The Open Championship:

2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
2016: Henrik Stenson (-20)
2015: Zach Johnson (-15)
2014: Rory McIlroy (-17)

Corollary Courses (Recent Open Championship Venues):

Royal Portrush
Carnoustie
Royal Troon
Royal Birkdale
St. Andrews

Player Profile for the week:

SG: Links Golf
Adjusted-SG: APP
SG: ARG (sand save positive)

For my full card, including any live in-tournament bets, please check out our subscriber-only Discord server. Let's dig in. As always, shop for the best number, but I'll note the best number available at the time of this writing.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Top Tier

Jon Rahm is the best player in the world and is priced as such. With no one else priced shorter than 16/1, Rahm's 8/1 is quite steep but justified. Per DataGolf, The difference between Rahm and their No. 2 ranked player, Xander Schauffele, is 0.52 strokes per round. That's the widest non-Tiger Woods gap between the top two ranked players since 2004. Pure dominance. He didn't play particularly well last week at the Scottish Open and still managed a top-10 finish in a loaded field. I struggle with backing someone priced to have more than double the win equity of anyone else in a 156-man field, but that could come back to bite me quickly.

Only one golfer in the field ranks inside the top 10 in both strokes gained approach and around the green over the past six months—Jordan Spieth. I rarely pick Spieth because a lot of what he does best is intangible. Though for this week, his current form and past success on links courses are exactly what I'm looking for. He's second to Rahm in strokes-gained total over the past three months, ranking no lower than 27th in any of the strokes-gained metrics. He's also second in our links course model this week, gaining 2.22 strokes on the field in his 53 links rounds dating back to 2015.

Mid-Tier

I'm sticking true to my player profile for the week here, first with Spieth and now with Patrick Reed at +3300. An unlikable wizard on and around the greens, Reed gets it done in a very similar way to Spieth, and has the pedigree for the moment. He's at his best on difficult courses against loaded fields, and he's exceptional in the wind due to his low ball flight. He's also gained strokes on approach in four straight starts. While Reed is not what you'd call a form player, meaning he can show up and win even if he's struggled of late, I'd rather back someone playing well versus hoping he'll find his form at Royal St. George.

Longshots

I don't have convictions on any longshots in the outright market, but I'm going to look at numerous players down the board for finishing position bets.

Branden Grace is comfortable playing the style I believe will be needed this week. He's finished fourth at Memorial and seventh at the U.S. Open in two of his past three starts. He's 70/1 to win, but I'm taking at +165 for a T30 finish.
Another South African at the same price for a T30 is Christiaan "CBez" Bezuidenhout. CBez has shown well in majors this season, with early weekend tee times at all three 2021 majors to date. The spotlight has been a bit too bright for him, as he's whithered on Sundays, but his short game is good enough to put him in contention again this week. Perhaps he's learned from Sundays of major past.
Talor Gooch doesn't have the history of the positive links golf that the rest of my picks do, but he does have the combination of elite iron play and scrambling I'm locking in on this week. He has five top-40 finishes in his past six starts, with two of the past three being T18 or better. At +240, I'm backing another top-40 finish for the Gooch.

72-hole Matchups

Keep an eye on Discord for these. Very few offerings as of this writing.

Open Championship Card

*More picks available on Discord.

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