2021 Bermuda Championship Preview
The PGA Tour travels back almost halfway across the globe this week for the Bermuda Championship. With this being near the end of the PGA Tour calendar year with nothing but minor tournaments remaining, most of the top 100 players in the world are choosing not to make the trip, and many will not play again until 2022. This leaves us with one of the worst field strengths of the year. It is tempting to cross most of the entire bottom half of the field off the list right at the start, but there is one “X-factor” that should not be ignored or passed over lightly—the wind. Last year, winds blew consistently in the 15-35 MPH range, which resulted in the average player score finishing above par. The forecast for this week calls for more of the same. Past performance on Windy/Coastal courses is heavily weighted in the model this week.
Course Details and Stats
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- Par: 71
- Length: 6,828 yards (2nd-smallest on Tour)
- Architects: Robert Trent Jones
- Average Score Relative to Par: -0.50 (2019-2020)
- Grasses: Fairway - Bermuda; Greens - Bermuda; Rough - Zoysia, St. Augustine, Bermuda 2"
- Greens Size: 6,000 square feet (slightly smaller than average)
- Greens Speed: 10.5 stimpmeter (slower than normal but average for coastal courses)
- Field Size: 126 players
- Cut Line: Top 65 and ties will advance
- Strength of Field: 68—Very Poor (350 is average)
*My modeling is built around the PGA’s relatively new Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance.
Course and Field Preview
"I can't change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination" - Jimmy Dean
For golfers at this week's Bermuda Championship, being able to successfully "adjust" their shots against the menacing ocean gusts will be a key component to advancing up the leaderboard. Of course, the two main "destinations" that are key to any success in golf are the fairways and greens. If Port Royal GC was located anywhere away from the coastline it would be one of the easiest courses on Tour. So the fact it played over par last year shows how strong the effects of the wind are on player performance. Whether off-the-tee or hitting approach shots into the greens, there are very few hazards or dangers out there. The rough is only 2" in length and GIR% is a relatively high 59%. As you can see from the chart above, Driving Accuracy is the second-most difficult on Tour for one reason—the wind. With GIR% being below average, scrambling and ARG (around the green) play has been bumped up in the model weights for this week. The past two winners at this course, Brian Gay and Brendan Todd, are both short, accurate hitters off the tee with outstanding short games. Once on the greens, players will be putting on pure Bermuda surfaces which are intentionally slower at 10.5 on the stimpmeter.
With only three of the top 50 players in the world coming to Bermuda this week, it will make for an interesting tournament, to say the least. Even so, a Masters invite and full FedExCup points to the winner are still on the line. The field is led by Patrick Reed, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Numerous other Tour veterans, most ranked outside the top 100 in the world have also made the trip. With the wind and travel being a huge factor, many players do not even want to bother making the journey. In fact, so many players withdrew that numerous "older" players who have not played a Tour event in years were added from the PGA's alternate list. Many of those players withdrew giving us a current field size of 126 golfers.
Bermuda Championship Key Splits, Player Selection and Final Model
For me this week, many of my outright selections were based on one factor that you may be able to correctly guess by this point—past experience and success in windy conditions. I especially am focusing on European or other players who grew up in these types of conditions or who face them often in European Tour events. Players like Guido Migliozzi, Danny Willett, Cameron Percy, Russell Knox and Thomas Detry all fit into this category. I am also focusing on solid ball-strikers who hit fairways and have good putting splits on Bermuda greens. Other relevant splits in the model for this week include "SG: Short Courses" and "SG: Weak Field Events".
Bermuda Championship Final Model
Outright Betting Selections
Mito Pereira +2000
(1u) FanDuel
Standing alone atop the model for this week, Mito Pereira is a budding superstar. He is the best striker in the field and he also leads in Adjusted Tee-to-Green over the past six months. He has slowed down a bit in his last couple of tournaments, finishing outside the top 30 for each. This course, though, fits him very well. He is eighth in the “Hole Breakdown” split, fourth in “Scoring” and third in the “Safety” metric. My only slight concern is his performance in windy conditions. There is not much sample size for that yet, but as good of a ball-striker as he is, and in such a weak field, 20-1 odds seem like a value.
Patrick Reed +2000
(1u) DraftKings
This is most definitely a "system" selection. Anytime Patrick Reed dips into the "20s" combined with a weak field, he becomes an auto-bet for me. Since returning from double pneumonia a couple of months ago his game has been awful. But again, in a field this bad, and in windy conditions in which Reed has thrived in the past, I am willing to take my chances that this is the week he turns it around. He also excels on short courses and has the best "Around the Green" game in the field.
Guido Migliozzi +4000
(1u) DraftKings
Guido Migliozzi is another of the top young players in the game. He has mostly played on the Euro Tour thus far in his career, but this week he ventures to the island of Bermuda where he should feel comfortable in the wind. Though we do not have a complete PGA stat profile with enough sample size, he has proven to be a very streaky player. Though similar to Reed in that his recent performance has been shaky, he is still 14th in SG: APP and sixth in “Scoring”. His upside and talent combined with his experience in these elements are enough of an enticement for me to select him for outright and finishing position bets.
Danny Willett +4000
(1u) DraftKings
PGA and Euro Tour veteran Danny Willett might have the most experience of any player in the field in windy conditions. Having played on England's coastal courses throughout his career, he immediately jumped out to me on the betting board. Just three weeks ago he won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which is played on a similar coastal course in Scotland. While not highly rated in the model (which does not take into account Euro Tour data), he is an excellent wind player who has the ability to scramble his way to avoiding bogeys and always seems to grind his way up the leaderboard.
Thomas Detry +5000
If you haven't noticed a pattern yet, Thomas Detry is another young talented European Tour player who also has had quality performances in past windy conditions. An example of this was his second-place finish at the blustery Scottish Open back in July. He ranks 17th in weak-field events and has been a consistent "cut-maker" in other "island" tournaments such as the Corales Puntacana. He has tremendous upside as a scorer and is very capable of going on birdie streaks.
Russell Knox +6000
Russell Knox leads the field in SG in windy conditions and gains 1.1 strokes on his baseline for non-windy conditions. Growing up in Scotland, Knox has battled the ocean breezes his entire life. He has numerous links-course victories on the European Tour, and though his current form has been poor, a trip to the coast may be exactly what he needs to get back on track. Believe it or not, he is also the third-best ball-striker in this field over the past 36 rounds and is also the third-best player in the field on short courses. He has finished in the top 16 in both his appearances at this course.
Matthew NeSmith +10000
(.33u) DraftKings
Matthew NeSmith is 15th overall in the model and second in the "SG: Wind/Coastal" split. In an amazing stat, for windy/coastal rounds he outperforms his "non-windy" baseline by 1.15 strokes. One of the best ball-strikers in the field, it has been his short game that has consistently prevented him from having more success. He also ranks 13th this week in the vital "Core 4" metric, which combines SG: APP, Fairways Gained, SG: P and SG: Wind/Coastal this week.
Finishing Positions
Top 10
- Matthew Fitzpatrick +130 (1u) DraftKings
Top 20
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +120 (1u) FanDuel
- Mito Pereira +105 (1u) PointsBet
- Seamus Power +130 (1u) PointsBet
- Danny Willett +170 (1u) DraftKings
- Russell Knox +175 (1u) FanDuel
Top 30
- Mattias Schwab +100 (1u) FanDuel
- Guido Migliozzi +105 (1u) FanDuel
- Denny McCarthy +115 (1u) FanDuel
- Taylor Pendrith +115 (1u) FanDuel
- Ryan Armour +140 (1u) FanDuel
- Thomas Detry +155 (1u) FanDuel
- Brian Stuard +165 (1.5u) FanDuel
Top 40
- Nick Taylor +115 (1u) FanDuel
- Mark Hubbard +120 (1u) FanDuel
- Matthew NeSmith +125 (1u) FanDuel
- Cameron Percy +130 (2u) FanDuel
For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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