Streaming Defenses: Week 4 Targets
As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks, and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions, and the offensive and defenses history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 4.
Our top pick last week, as it will be most weeks, was the team facing the Dolphins. Last week, that was the Cowboys. They matched two parts of our expectations, with three sacks and an interception, and beat on the other, allowing only six points. Overall, it was a great result if you played the Cowboys.
Our next pick, ranked by projected points, was the Packers. They also produced great results, in their case, by slightly overperforming in points allowed and interceptions and hugely overperforming in sacks, with six.
The 49ers, the next highest-ranked pick by projected points, were a somewhat scary option last week, but they also gave an above-average result for points from the predictable components. While they allowed slightly more points than Vegas expected (20 vs 19) and slightly fewer sacks and interceptions than we expected, all results were close enough that they fell only 1.2 points below our expectation of 6.2 points.
Our final pick, the Seahawks, were a complete disaster. The Seahawks are tough to beat at home (undefeated at home in September since Carroll became coach) and facing a backup quarterback. That sounds like a good situation for a fantasy defense, so the outcome was unexpected. To allow only 177 yards passing and 88 yards rushing and somehow give up 33 points, a lot of weird things have to happen, so I can call that an outlier. However, the Seahawks defense also had no sacks and no interceptions, so they disappointed in every way.
Week 4 Projections
Below is a tiered table showing the projected stats for 30 NFL defenses this week, along with their availability in Yahoo! leagues.
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