Streaming Defenses: Week 17 Targets
As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 17.
Our top pick from last week, the Broncos slightly underperformed our projection but still put up an above-average score. They delivered four sacks, one more than we projected, but had no interceptions and very slightly underperformed Vegas expectations in points allowed (17 vs 15.75) for a small miss overall. Still, it is not a result I can be too unhappy about.
The Colts, on the other hand, absolutely crushed our expectations in all categories: five sacks, three interceptions and only six points allowed (versus nearly 20 expected by Vegas). That amounts to 18 points from the predictable elements. Now add on two kick return touchdowns, which we do not try to predict, and we get a 30-burger, which is remarkable for a defense.
Our last pick, the Redskins, were at the other extreme: underperforming in all areas. They had only one sack, no interceptions and allowed an embarrassing 41 points to the lowly Giants. That leaves them with -3 points from the predictable elements, which is awful, the lowest of any defense this week. If there is a lesson from this, it is the one we learned many times this season: the pick with the lowest projection (particularly when it is below 6.5 points) is not very trustworthy.
Week 17 Projections
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