DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 15

Dec 12, 2018

The Week 15 NFL DFS Projected Ownership Analysis article highlights discrepancies between 4for4 player projections and projected ownership.

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I will be using the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation on how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection, positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field.

Players to Be Overweight On

RB David Johnson ($7,400 FD/$7,100 DK)

David Johnson has been incredibly frustrating this season as he started slow, gained momentum and has since dipped back into a lull of production. Any player with his talent and opportunity, no matter how ineffective they've been, is always on my tournament radar. The Falcons have been notoriously prone to ceding fantasy points, especially through the air, to running backs. They rank 26th in aFPA to running backs and the game script looks to set up for Johnson to get increased targets while playing from behind. Johnson falls smack in the middle of the elite tier guys like Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott and the middle tier values in Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook. With Christian Kirk out as well, the ceiling's the limit for his targets, as we saw last week when he saw 12.