DraftKings Week 5 GPP Breakdown
In this week’s Raybon’s Review, I mentioned as far as tournaments go, I believe we are better at narrowing down to a pool of players who may potentially have a big game than we are at predicting which of those players in our narrowed down pool will actually have the biggest game. If you subscribe to that belief, which I do, then lineup construction and player exposure comes down to which picks give you the biggest advantage if they hit.
Going forward, the order in which players are listed for each roster slot will be according to the projected leverage the pick will give you if it hits. This mostly comes down to price and projected ownership, where lower is always better in terms of projected ownership and lower is better in terms of price in situations where the projected ownership of the players involved is similar.
The more leverage a pick gives you in the form of low ownership or a discount in price compared to other options, the more advantageous it is to be overweight on that particular player — that is, have more exposure than the field to that player. The players I list are those who I like the idea of being overweight on and vice-versa.
Ranking players in your own player pool by leverage, or at least being aware of which players offer the highest leverage, is something I strongly recommend. Once you have players ranked by leverage, you can tweak your exposure based on your individual confidence level in each player.
Related: DraftKings GPP Guidelines
Andrew Luck $7,300 vs. CHI
Luck is a favorite with an implied total of 26 at home — where he has topped 330 yards in both games so far in 2016 — against a Bears defense that is dealing with absences or banged-up players at all three levels.
Carson Wentz $6,400 @ DET
Wentz has started the season brilliantly, topping 270 yards and throwing multiple TDs in 2-of-3 games. He is a road favorite with an implied total of 24.5 against a Lions defense (32nd in QB aFPA) that has already allowed three top-seven QB finishes.
Keep reading for more of Chris Raybon's top Week 5 GPP plays.
The Most Accurate Projections Since 2010