WR vs. CB Matchups to Exploit & Avoid in DFS - Week 15
When it comes to selecting receivers in DFS, it’s important to understand who will cover them, as sometimes defense versus position stats alone don't tell the whole story. In addition, there can many times be defensive injuries that will have a significant, and perhaps hidden, effect on a receiver's matchup. Below we'll take a deeper look at the matchups that should help in your WR decisions for Week 15, and remember, there's now Saturday night football.
Note: Any unlisted matchups -- especially those of prominent WRs -- should generally be considered a push. This article is also updated throughout the week as injuries and news breaks.
Avoid: In the words of Richard Sherman, we get a "poopfest" for Thursday night. Avoid the Rams and their 11.75 implied team total. I just can’t dress this pig and make it look good.
Exploit: Doug Baldwin needs to atone for his sins from last week. I think the most egregious play was the ball off his helmet that resulted in an INT. He gets a favorable matchup this week, lining up with slot corner, Lamarcus Joyner. Joyner’s allowing 0.31 points per route. If you’re playing Thursday slate, Baldwin could go overlooked.
Exploit: If you’re really looking for the GPP dart this week, Jermaine Kearse will match up on the outside with Troy Hill, who will fill in for E.J. Gaines. Hill hasn’t been good in coverage this season, allowing 10.8 yards per target while being targeted an average of 13.2 yards downfield.
Update: EJ Gaines inactive, so the matchup for Kearse gets a bump with either Troy Hill or Michael Jordan (no, not the GOAT).
Avoid: Matt Moore has been a meh backup QB, but that’s who’ll be tossing around the pigskin for Miami this weekend as Ryan Tannehill recovers from an MCL sprain. The QB change is a downgrade for the Dolphin offense and receivers, especially against a strong Jets pass rush. This game has an O/U of 38 and Miami has a total of 20.25. You could toss out Jarvis Landry in a tournament and hope that Moore can exploit Buster Skrine’s poor coverage abilities. Skrine is allowing 0.30 points per route and has been one of the worst corners in the league this season.
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