WR vs. CB Matchups to Exploit & Avoid in DFS - Week 14
When it comes to selecting receivers in DFS, it’s important to understand who will cover them, as sometimes defense versus position stats alone don't tell the whole story. In addition, there can many times be defensive injuries that will have a significant, and perhaps hidden, effect on a receiver's matchup. Below we'll take a deeper look at the matchups that should help in your WR decisions for Week 14.
Note: Any unlisted matchups -- especially those of prominent WRs -- should generally be considered a push. This article is also updated throughout the week as injuries and news breaks.
Exploit: It appears that Terrance Mitchell could cover Amari Cooper Thursday night. Mitchell has not played many snaps, but has lined up on Cooper’s side of the field 96 percent of the time. He’s been the opposing QB’s target on 24 percent of their throws, so I see Cooper getting his normal target share this week.
Be cautious: Marcus Peters typically doesn’t shadow and spends 91 percent of his routes on the left side of the field, so he will see Michael Crabtree in coverage for most of the night. Peters has been thrown at 57 times and is making a play on the ball 37 percent of the time. He can be beat, as he’s been targeted an average of 13 yards downfield and has yielded 0.30 points per route. Crabtree has a chance to produce and could be under-owned based on the matchup.
Be cautious: T.J. Carrie is now Oakland’s slot corner with D.J. Hayden out and should draw Jeremy Maclin this week. Maclin has run 44 percent of his routes from the slot. I have a hard time recommending Maclin, but the matchup is favorable. Carrie is yielding 0.30 points per route and is allowing 11 yards per target.
Exploit: On 448 routes, David Amerson is allowing 0.30 points per route and has been the primary target for opposing QBs 20 percent of the time, while being targeted 13 yards downfield. Tyreek Hill is in a good spot this week and is generating a 21 percent target per snap rate.
Be cautious: I’ll never tell you to avoid Antonio Brown, even with Ben Roethlisberger’s awful road splits. Stephon Gillmore lines up on Brown’s side of the field 97 percent of his coverage routes, but Brown moves around the field and should also see Ronald Darby at times. Gillmore is allowing 0.23 points per route, but Darby is yielding 0.35 points per route. If you’re not swayed by the road splits, I have no problem firing off Brown in all formats this week.
Exploit: Artie Burns is a burnable corner, so we’ll see how Sammy Watkins progresses this week. Watkins saw 68 percent of the snaps in Week 13, which bodes well for his usage this week. Burns is allowing 0.33 points per route and is being targeted 11 yards downfield on average.
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