WR vs. CB Matchups to Exploit & Avoid in DFS - Week 11
When it comes to selecting receivers in DFS, it’s important to understand who will cover them, as sometimes defense versus position stats alone don't tell the whole story. In addition, there can many times be defensive injuries that will have a significant, and perhaps hidden, effect on a receiver's matchup. Below we'll take a deeper look at the matchups that should help in your WR decisions for Week 11. Keep in mind the main slate is 12 games, as there are four teams on bye this week.
Note: Any unlisted matchups -- especially those of prominent WRs -- should generally be considered a push.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers (Thursday)
Exploit: James Bradberry lines up on Brandin Cooks’ side of the field 86 percent of the time, so he should guard the speedy receiver when he lines up outside. Cooks is a receiver that plays all over to take advantage of matchup, so he could also see time lined up with Leonard Johnson. Bradberry has been the QB’s primary target on 21 percent of their throws and he’s yielding 0.24 points per route while being targeted an average of nearly 14 yards downfield.
Exploit: I mentioned Leonard Johnson -- he hasn’t been very good covering slot receivers. Johnson has given up 0.33 points per route on 104 routes while allowing nearly eight yards per target. I like the matchup for Willie Snead -- he leads the Saints with a 14.4 percent target per snap rate.
Exploit: Rookie Daryl Worley is another Panther corner you can take advantage of, so you’ll want to sprinkle in some Michael Thomas. Worley has been thrown at 33 times at an average of 17 yards downfield. Worley is also allowing 0.30 points per route and has been one of the worst ranked corners in the league. Do you get the sense that the Panthers miss Josh Norman?
Exploit: Delvin Breaux should shadow Kelvin Benjamin, as he’s spent nearly all of his routes as an outside cornerback. He continues to get picked on, which is a good thing. Breaux has been targeted on 20 percent of the opposing QB’s throws, giving up 0.30 points per route and nearly 10 yards per target. Benjamin is receiving 24 percent of Cam’s targets and producing 0.42 points per route, so this is definitely a nice matchup for him.
Update: Breaux is not expected to play, which bumps up Benjamin's matchup against the Saints as it appears that De'Vante Harris will cover him. In 106 defensive snaps, he hasn't fared very well in coverage.
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