Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 11 Targets

Nov 15, 2016
Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 11 Targets

The stream rolls on as we approach the fantasy playoffs. After ten full weeks of NFL action, I begin weighting each QB’s points per game more heavily, as the data shows that it becomes the best predictor of future performance. We will still include Vegas odds and defensive matchups, but I am adding a slight boost to the weight we give year-to-date QB scoring.

On the season, our optimal streaming QB is scoring 22.6 points, good enough for QB11 overall. Our streaming choices have averaged 18.84 points per game through ten weeks.

As always, I focus on QB points per game and the Vegas implied team totals to determine good QB streamers, then I add in their matchup for the week. For opposing defenses, we utilize Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points allowed (aFPA).

Week 11 QB Streaming Targets

Alex Smith (KC) vs TB

Alex Smith is a frequent target of QB streamers, both in this column and elsewhere across the Internet. He does not have consistent upside – with only three out of eight games above 20 fantasy points – but he is a known commodity. This week, we get a known commodity against a heavily favorable matchup. Smith and the Chiefs are home favorites against a Buccaneers defense surrendering 18.8 aFPA to opposing QBs. Smith himself is averaging 15.4 points per game. For the record, Smith looked terrible last week, and I dread this call already. But it’s hard to pass on the matchup and the 26-point implied team total.

Smith is available in 72.1% of ESPN public leagues, and he is my optimal QB streamer of the week.

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