4for4 Mailbag Week 11
Welcome to the weekly 4for4 Mailbag, where I answer your questions about all aspects of fantasy football, including redraft leagues, DFS strategy, advice on handling angry football widows, and even some pop culture. Since it will be published on Thursdays throughout the season, I won’t be tackling waiver wire advice, so be sure to check out 4for4’s valuable articles on streaming and the like to aid with your weekly roster decisions.
To submit a question for consideration, tweet me @themondaymommy or simply use the hashtag #4for4mailbag!
@carloscantu_007: Is Hopkins droppable? I have no faith in him come fantasy playoff time. Trade deadline passed with no takers.
JE: The only folks more pissed off about taking DeAndre Hopkins this season are the Sammy Watkins and Keenan Allen drafters, or actually more like Allen Robinson, because at least the other two aren’t haunting you weekly.
With an average ADP of 7.9, there’s a solid chance you wasted your first pick on the uber-talented WR, who’s stuck with a really crappy QB. Unless you are a Bronco fan such as myself, you assumed that Brock Osweiler was good enough at throwing the football to deserve his ridiculous $72 million contract with $37 million of it guaranteed in the first two years. Well, the Texans got duped and so did all the fantasy players out there who counted on the duo.
After the first 10 weeks of the NFL season, DeAndre Hopkins sits as WR33 with 111.2 PPR fantasy points, averaging 12.4 per game. While that isn’t exactly where a first-rounder should be, he is actually surrounded by good company as Brandon Marshall and Golden Tate are right above him, with Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffrey just below the Texans wideout.
While I know it’s been difficult for you to stomach his lack of WR1 production so far this season, to me Hopkins is still worthy of a roster spot down the stretch. When looking at his rest of season matchups, he gets Oakland this week, whose schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) is 37.6 to the WR position, followed by San Diego then Green Bay whose aFPA is a similar 37.5. For what is most likely your league’s playoffs, the Texans finish out with Indy, Jacksonville and the Bengals, who all fall into the mid 30’s when it comes to aFPA. In real life football, the Texans are very much alive in the playoff hunt so they should be putting everything out there in games leading up to the post season.
My final reason that Hopkins should stay put, is the lack of talent out there on the waiver wire. Since none of your league mates were kind enough to take him off your hands via trade before the deadline, you are left with whatever scrubs are unclaimed at the moment. While I don’t have access to your league’s waiver wire, in looking at one of mine, the top guys on there at the WR position are Anquan Boldin, Adam Thielen and Michael Floyd, who are currently sitting as WR44, WR49 and WR59, respectively. At least Hopkins is the number one option on his team.
Sit tight, pray for the best and maybe he’ll come through at just the right time.
(By the way I really like your other submission and am going to save it for my next mailbag since it is more payoff oriented)
@cromague1: Very strange situation. Need backup TE cuff for Reed. Have Fiedorowicz & Kendricks. Who should I keep? Toss up?
JE: If you have been reading my 4for4 weekly streaming tight end columns, you know that I am actually a big fan of both of these guys this season. With the exception of Kendricks last week, both have come through on a consistent basis as quality streamers through the course of the first nine weeks.
In comparing schedules between the Texans and Rams, Kendricks and Fiedorowicz are close to equal as far as opponents defending the TE position before the fantasy playoffs, but Fiedorowicz has a slightly softer path when it comes to the actual fantasy post season.
Leading up to the fantasy playoffs, LA’s opposing defenses are averaging 12.5 schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to TEs, while during the fantasy playoffs, their aFPA is an average of 13.6. The Texans face teams with an aFPA of 12.6 in Weeks 11, 12 & 13, while their opponents for the fantasy post season are giving up an average aFPA of 14.7.
Now that I have probably confused you even more, I’ll switch to something a little less stat-y (I think I just made up a word, and kind of like it). The Texans are currently sitting at 6-3 atop the craptacular AFC South, with the AFC’s third seed if the NFL playoffs started today. Los Angeles, at 4-5 is two games back from the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and currently hold the 13th spot in the NFC as a whole.
It would appear that the Texans have more to play for down the stretch, plus the Rams are breaking out a brand new shiny QB this week. How about this: hang on to both for at least this week and see if Jared Goff is the answer to all the Rams prayers. If not, I’d lean Fiedorowicz.
@MooseOnaHill: Hi Jennifer, Can you pick one please for PPR; Crowder, Landry or Tate?
JE: This is a lovely problem to have, Tommy. I’m sure there are plenty of degenerates out there grasping at WRs to start this week not only due to bye weeks, but lack of overall production.
All three WRs are good choices this week, but I would say Tate ranks a bit higher with the other two falling a tad below. Detroit is coming off a bye week and Tate was putting up some incredible numbers before their break, with two of his last four games topping 25 fantasy points. They get the Jaguars at home in Week 11 and are looking to stay atop the NFC North.
Miami is a bit unpredictable and Landry has been in a slow decent over the past six weeks. There is definitely an argument for Crowder versus a weak Green Bay secondary, but I’d still roll with the hot hand in Tate.
As always thanks so much for all your submissions this week. There will not be a 4for4 Mailbag next week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Enjoy the food, football and family in Week 12 and I’ll see you back here in Week 13!