Week 5 at Los Angeles
It was a gigantic win for Buffalo over New England last week, and Tyrod Taylor was excellent. However, it didn't really translate over to his fantasy numbers. Taylor did throw for 246 yards, but had only one touchdown pass while he was also limited on the ground to 28 rushing yards.
Buffalo will hit the road Week 5, where Taylor will face a Rams defense that is 15th in aFPA to quarterbacks. A bigger issue is who he will throw the football to. Sammy Watkins was placed on IR, so the Bills already thin receiving corp is without their best player.
Taylor is going to remain as a backup in fantasy for most of the 2016 season, as he lacks weapons around him unless some players step up. Keep him on the bench against Los Angeles as a low-end QB2.
Week 4 at New England
Tyrod Taylor had his worst passing numbers of the season last week, despite the Bills first victory. He completed just 56 percent of his passes for 119 yards and zero touchdowns. He also threw his second INT of the season. The only positive was his 76 rushing yards and rushing touchdown that salvaged his fantasy day.
His two starts last year against the Patriots weren't great, averaging 238 yards passing per game with three TDs and three INTs. New England is 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks in 2016, but Taylor will be without his favorite receiver Sammy Watkins and on the road in Foxborough.
Taylor should remain on the bench again this week, as he doesn't even earn a QB2 ranking for Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Arizona
Tyrod Taylor bounced back with a strong fantasy outing in Week 2 with 297 passing yards and three touchdown passes. Taylor had 111 passing yards and zero touchdowns in Week 1. The one thing we have not seen is the running game that elevated his fantasy status, but that might not be a bad thing if he puts up numbers like he did last Thursday. It might actually keep him healthy.
It's not a great matchup this week against a Cardinals secondary that is very good. They are 9th in aFPA to quarterbacks and although it is early, we expect Arizona to continue that trend.
Despite the good outing by Taylor, he should be on the bench for Week 3. He isn't going to have the same success as he did against New York, although it should still be better than Week 1. Just not enough to consider him for a fantasy lineup.
Week 2 vs New York Jets
It wasn't a great start for the Buffalo offense last week, and Tyrod Taylor's numbers showed that. Taylor did complete 68 percent of his passes, but for just 111 yards and zero touchdowns. He also only rushed for 11 yards, which was a major part of his fantasy value last season.
The Bills had an NFL Week 1 low of 160 yards of total offense, and the offense managed just 7 points in the loss to Baltimore. They had trouble moving the ball, and the lack of weapons could be a problem in 2016.
Last year, Taylor struggled against the Jets. In two meetings, he finished with less than 350 yards passing and 63 yards rushing combine. New York struggled with Andy Dalton last week, but the Bengals offense is considered a potent one, so it wasn't surprising.
Taylor is not a good play this week, and if Buffalo's offense continues to struggle, it could be a long season for the Bills skill players. Sit Taylor Thursday night as a low-end QB2.
Week 1 at Baltimore
Tyrod Taylor begins his second season as the Buffalo starter after putting up a very solid Year 1. He completed 63 percent of his passes, threw 20 touchdowns and was the second-leading rushing QB in the NFL behind Cam Newton. And most people think he can improve on those numbers.
The Bills will be a run-first team, but Taylor will be given more opportunities in the passing game. Week 1 opponent Baltimore was 25th against fantasy quarterbacks in 2015 and has not been the feared Ravens defense that helped them win a couple Super Bowls. Although they brought Eric Weddle in to help the pass defense, it won't be enough to return them to being one of the NFL's top defenses.
Taylor comes in ranked 13th for Week 1. Although there are going to be times he could slip into the top-10, we want to see those numbers improve first and not just be potential. Keep Taylor on the bench against the Ravens as a high-end QB2.
Fantasy Upside
Many people were surprised when Tyrod Taylor was named the starting quarterback for Buffalo last season. A virtual unknown backup took advantage of the poor play of former first round draft pick E.J. Manuel and played well enough to start every game he was healthy for. His numbers weren't mind blowing but solid averaging only 217 passing yards per game with 20 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. He also lead NFL quarterbacks averaging 41 rushing yards per game. That last number helps push him up into the top 20 fantasy quarterbacks going into 2016.
Fantasy Downside
Taylor does not have big build like Cam Newton or Ben Roethlisberger so he will have to be careful with running the football even if it is a strength. He only missed two games last season, but it is always a concern. Also, Taylor only has one season under his belt as starter so he has not built up enough NFL-clout to avoid being benched if things go wrong. The Bills offense could also limit growing those numbers because they are run-first team.
2016 Bottom Line
If Taylor stays healthy, he should play well enough to stay the starter in Buffalo for the entire season. That means pass attempts which will lead to yardage and touchdowns. His ADP of 138 puts him in the 13th round area. Basically, that puts him as a solid QB2. But he actually rates much higher than where owners are taking him. He is the kind of guy you will be able to use various weeks as your No. 1 so he is especially a good pick if you already drafted a QB in the 6th to 8th round.
Week 17 vs New York Jets
The Bills got away from the passing game last Sunday only throwing 18 passes for 179 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. It was the fewest pass attempts since Week 9. Tyrod Taylor had a quiet game in the first meeting with New York throwing for only 158 yards and one touchdown. Taylor is listed as questionable and has been limited in practice but is expected to play.
The Jets are 18th in aFPA to wide receivers so no advantage either way but the Jets will be playing for the playoffs so expect them to throw everything at Taylor. Sit him for Week 17 as a QB2.
Week 16 vs Cowboys
Tyrod Taylor's passing stats were moderate last week against Washington throwing for 235 yards and a TD, but he added a season-high 79 yards rushing. It's surprising Taylor didn't throw more passes considering the Bills got down early. But he has been fairly consistent with his numbers despite Buffalo losing 4 of 5.
Taylor has a tough matchup for Week 16 as the Cowboys are ranked 2nd in aFPA to quarterbacks. The good thing is Dallas' offense continues to struggle so that should give Buffalo more offensive snaps and possessions. Taylor is a low-end QB1 for Week 16 so start him in all leagues and formats.
Week 15 at Washington
Tyrod Taylor came back down to earth after two outstanding performances. He still threw for 268 yards, but his completion rate was only 53 percent and only threw one touchdown pass after throwing six in the previous two games. Taylor now has completed less then 56 percent of his passes the last four games.
The Bills face Washington this week who is 12th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Taylor still has played pretty well the second half of the season despite last week's setback. We feel he is worthy of starting Week 15 as a low-end QB1.
Week 14 vs Philadelphia
It was a very impressive outing for Tyrod Taylor last week against a good Texans defense. He threw for three touchdowns and ran for another despite only completing 52 percent of his passes. Taylor now has six touchdown passes in this last two games, something he did in Weeks 2 and 3. He is listed as probable for Sunday, as the shoulder he injured a couple weeks ago is almost completely healed.
This will be a great matchup against Philly as the Eagles are ranked 29th in aFPA to quarterbacks. Since Taylor is on a roll and Philadelphia continues to struggle against the pass, he ranks a low-end QB1 for Week 14. Start Taylor in all leagues and formats.
