Week 7 at New York Jets
After back-to-back 100 receiving yard performances, Stefon Diggs took a step back last week with six receptions for 46 yards. He did score his third touchdown of the season to help his owners, but we have seen a great connection between him and QB Josh Allen. We had doubts after the trade from the Vikings, but he is a legit No. 1 receiver at this time.
Diggs will face the Jets who are 20th in aFPA to wide receivers. New York is a mess right now and the Bills have a two-game losing streak which will end this week and we don't expect Buffalo to hold back. Diggs had eight receptions for 86 yards in the first meeting this season.
The Bills offense will have a big game in Week 7 and Diggs ranks a WR1 against the Jets. Expect similar numbers to the first meeting and another good fantasy outing for Diggs.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City
It was a crazy game for Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo offense. He had season-highs in targets and receptions, but the Bills offense only managed 16 points and he was held out of the end zone. He did have 106 receiving yards which was only his third highest total of the season. But the 10 receptions really helped you if you had him in a PPR league.
The Chiefs are up next and are ranked eighth in aFPA to wide receivers. Although that looks good for KC, the Chiefs were just lit up by Derek Carr so that ranking might be a little misleading.
Start Diggs for Week 6 as a solid WR1. This should be an offensive shootout and we don't expect Kansas City to have much luck containing Diggs. He should have another big night on Monday in all categories.
Week 5 at Tennessee
The Bills went out and acquired Stefon Diggs to fill the void of a No. 1 receiver and so far it's paid off. He had another big game last Sunday catching 6 passes for 115 yards, his second 100+ receiving yard performance this season. His QB Josh Allen is playing lights out and Diggs is connecting with him on a regular basis which bodes well for him the rest of the season.
The Titans are ranked 19th in aFPA to wide receivers. There is some risk playing any Buffalo players because the game has already been moved to Tuesday and it could be cancelled if there are more COVID-19 cases for Tennessee.
But if they do play, Diggs is a solid WR1 for Week 5. He is on pace for a 1,600 yard season and has proven he can get into the end zone. Start him in all leagues and formats but also keep an eye on Tennessee's status.
Week 4 at Las Vegas
Stefon Diggs has had good numbers as the No. 1 receiver for Buffalo, although last week was his worst fantasy week so far this season. He did salvage it with a touchdown, but had season-lows in targets, receptions and receiving yardage. It appears Diggs is QB Josh Allen's favorite weapon in the passing game so take last week as an oddity.
Buffalo heads across the country to battle Las Vegas who is 14th in aFPA to wide receivers. Diggs will be a big part of the game plan again so expect the Raiders to pay special attention to him.
Diggs is a fantasy starter for Week 4 but only as a WR2. The touchdowns have helped his production, but we need to see more like 10-12 targets on a regular basis if he is going to be elevated to a WR1 this season and that's not really what the Bills do on offense.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Stefon Diggs was targetted twice as much as any other Buffalo player and even though he matched his 8 catches from Week 1, he averaged 9 more yards per catch last week and also got into the end zone. If Diggs and his QB Josh Allen keep this up, their value will continue to rise.
It's a very tough matchup for the Buffalo passing game as the Rams are ranked eighth in aFPA to wide receivers after two weeks. Diggs could see a lot of Jalen Ramsey, so it will be imperative to get as many targets as possible.
Diggs eventually can be a WR1, but this week he remains a WR2 with a high-end WR2 ranking in PPR leagues. We expect Allen to keep seeking him out as his No. 1 guy.
Week 2 vs Miami
It was a solid Buffalo debut for Stefon Diggs with nine targets and eight receptions for 86 yards. The new No. 1 receiver for the Bills should be one of QB Josh Allen's target. Diggs seems to be satisfied with his new surroundings which was always an issue in Minnesota.
Diggs will face the Dolphins who are 30th in aFPA to wide receivers. Miami invested in their secondary in the offseason, but it still looked vulnerable the first week. Expect Diggs to be able to take advantage of some single coverage as teams have to worry about more Buffalo weapons this season.
Start Diggs for Week 2 as a low-end WR2. Even though John Brown was targeted one more time, Diggs will be the best producer in the Buffalo passing and he should have a very good game on Sunday.
Week 1 vs. New York Jets
There is no doubt the Bills brought Stefon Diggs in to be the No. 1 receiver. After sharing the spotlight with Adam Thielen in Minnesota, he is in a great position with a young rising star QB in Josh Allen. Diggs has had back-to-back 1,000 yards seasons so the expectations are high.
Diggs will face the Jets who were 28th in aFPA to wide receivers. With Jamal Adams out of New York , it could be even worse. Teams should have big passing days against New York in 2020.
The Bills offense will still be a run-first, ball control offense, but the passing game should be expanded. Diggs will still have some big games in 2020. For Week 1, we have him ranked a high-end WR3 or Flex. He should be involved enought to help your fantasy team in that role.
Fantasy Upside
Stefon Diggs moves from Minnesota to Buffalo where he immediately becomes the clear No. 1 receiver. Although he had a career-high 1,103 receiving yards averaging 17.3 yards per carry, his receptions dropped from 102 in 2018 to 63 last season. But he won't have to deal with Adam Thielen on the other side of the field as there really was a 1A and 1B situation. With the maturation of QB Josh Allen, Diggs is expected to be the deep threat for the Bills which he became last season with the Vikings. He was targeted deep in 2019 in 32% of his targets.
Fantasy Downside
Buffalo was a run-first offense last year, even more than the Vikings. If you remember, Diggs requested a trade mid-season because he wanted Minnesota to throw more. Diggs has been described as moody which hopefully will go away with a new start in western New York. Even though Allen is expected to be better, he is still a slight drop-off from Kirk Cousins so that could hurt his numbers slightly.
2020 Bottom Line
It appears there should be an increase in Diggs' targets which will probably translate to more catches. However, the yardage total from last year will probably take a step back. Diggs projects to have 76 catches for 1,073 yards and six touchdowns which ranks him 23rd in fantasy wide receivers. He has an ADP of 62, but you can grab him a little higher as he can serve as low-end WR2. Diggs will not have his best fantasy season ever, but his value dictates he will help your fantasy team if you can grab him around the fifth or sixth round.
Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears
Don't expect Stefon Diggs to play much this week as Minnesota has nothing to gain from playing its starters. It's possible Diggs doesn't even play at all. But if he is active, he'll likely be out there for just a few drives. The uncertainty makes Diggs a poor play in Week 17, and more proof of why you should hold your fantasy football championships in Week 16.
Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers
This is a weird stat, but hang with me: Last week, Stefon Diggs had his first game between 50-90 receiving yards by finishing 4-76. The reason I bring this stat up is because it's indicative of Diggs' odd season where he either completely dominates, or hardly does anything. This week he faces a Packers defense he struggled against earlier in the year as he caught just one pass off of seven targets (it was a 49-yard touchdown, but still just one catch). Diggs is an odd player, but he always carries WR1 potential, which makes him worth starting on a weekly basis. We like him as a high-end WR2 this week vs. the Packers in Week 16.
