Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Philip Rivers has struggled in recent years against this Chiefs defense but a bolstered offensive line and downgraded Kansas City secondary makes this too good of a matchup to pass up for those with Rivers on their fantasy teams. The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points and the Chiefs ranked just 25th in our aFPA to QBs last season. All signs point to Rivers being a top-12 QB this week.
Fantasy Upside
Rivers handled his top priority in 2017—curbing turnovers. After throwing a league-high 21 interceptions in 2016, Rivers finished with just 10 interceptions last season. Still, his offense sputtered at times, struggling to score points, especially during the team's 0-4 start. Rivers said the team's struggles were due to a lack of execution, and one of his priorities during this offseason has been focusing on doing the little things better to improve in 2018. And that means scoring more points.
"Early on, the first five or six weeks of (last) season, there were too many missed plays," Rivers said. "We talked about not scoring enough points those first few games -- we were just not scoring enough points." Despite the lack of points, Rivers eclipsed the 50,000-yard passing mark and, for the 10th time, had at least 25 touchdown passes.
Fantasy Downside
Rivers loves to freestyle with a riverboat gambler's demeanor, often trying to force passes into windows with little room for error. Of his 10 picks last year, six of them came in two games, both losses to the Chiefs. One major change this season? Rivers will be without tight ends Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry, players he's leaned on heavily in the past.
2018 Bottom Line
Yahoo's Brad Evans recently reminded his Twitter followers that Rivers has finished as a QB1 in 12-team leagues nine times since 2006. That would be very good. It would also suggest he'll once again outperform his ADP. The fact you can draft a player who regularly posts QB1 numbers at a QB2 price is how you regularly win your league.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, which means you can safely start your fantasy options for this team in Week 17. Philip Rivers faces an Oakland defense that ranks just 21st in aFPA to QBs. However, the Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest points to the position in the past four weeks. Nevertheless, Rivers is a solid QB1 option for Week 17.
Week 16 at New York Jets
The Chargers go cross-country to face the Jets, with the season on the line for Los Angeles. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite with an implied team total just over 24 points this week in Vegas. Over the past four weeks, only the Packers have allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Jets. New York is also ranked 30th against the position in aFPA. This all adds up to Rivers being a viable QB1 in Week 16, especially with top wideout Keenan Allen healthy.
Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are red hot and go into Kansas City Saturday in a game that will greatly decide the division race. The Chargers have a middle-of-the-road implied team total of 23 points, but Philip Rivers is the QB3 over the past four weeks, and Kansas City is ranked just 31st in aFPA to the quarterback position. Have confidence in Rivers as a solid QB1 in Week 15, even on the road.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
The Chargers have the second-highest implied team total this weekend in Vegas at 26.25 points, and Washington is below league average in aFPA versus QBs. Rivers also has three consecutive weeks of more than 17 fantasy points, making him a safe QB1 option in Week 14 for the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chargers are surging with 82 points in their last two games, and now they get a revenge game against the lowly Browns, as the Chargers were the only team Cleveland beat last year. The Chargers have the highest implied team total of the week at 28.75 points. The Browns are ranked just 28th in aFPA versus QBs this season. Rivers is averaging more than 22 points in two games against Cleveland over the past two seasons. He's a top-five play this week.
Week 12 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys present a plus matchup for Philip Rivers on Thanksgiving, as Dallas is just 17th in overall fantasy points allowed to the position and 19th in aFPA against quarterbacks. Dallas has also allowed two passing touchdowns in three consecutive weeks. This game is also tied for the third-highest over/under in Vegas for Week 12. Consider Rivers a decent option as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside.
Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills
Philip Rivers has been below-average for more than a month now, averaging just 13.9 fantasy points in his last four games. He faces a Buffalo team that has been gashed recently on the ground, meaning this could be more of a Melvin Gordon game for the Chargers. Plus, Buffalo is top-10 in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. In 1-QB leagues, it's best to bench Rivers this week.
Week 10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been a pit of fantasy despair for opposing quarterbacks, allowing a league-best 6.7 fantasy points per game to the position, with only one quarterback all season even reaching 13 points. Yeah...don't start Philip Rivers this week.
