Week 8 at New England Patriots
Philip Rivers gets what had been a good matchup for every offense the Patriots faced until the Falcons came to town last week. Nevertheless, New England is still ranked a lowly 30th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Rivers is averaging just under 16 fantasy points per game; meanwhile, the Patriots offense is allowing 23.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks—dead last in the league. As bad as Matt Ryan was last week, he still managed 17 fantasy points. Rivers is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2. You can do worse on a heavy bye week.
Week 7 vs. Denver Broncos
Philip Rivers has averaged just 14.28 points in his last four games against the Broncos, outside QB1 production in 12-team leagues. He did put up 17 points in Week 1 against the Broncos, but with Denver top-10 in our aFPA vs. QB rankings, Rivers is not a good consideration for 1QB leagues in Week 7.
Week 6 at Oakland Raiders
It is unclear whether this game will be played in Oakland or Santa Clara, due to concerns about air quality with the wildfires, but either way it's a road game for Philip Rivers against a Raiders defense that is only 26th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Rivers is coming off back-to-back 20-point fantasy performances, and Oakland allowed 18+ to quarterbacks not named Josh McCown, Trevor Siemian, and Joe Flacco. Plus, in two of his last four games against Oakland, Rivers threw for 300+ and 3+ touchdowns. He's on the QB1 radar for Week 6.
Week 5 at New York Giants
The Chargers have the dreaded 1 PM Eastern kickoff that has haunted many West Coast teams. However, the Giants have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. New York is also just 18th in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Consider Rivers a borderline QB1 in 12-team leagues this week.
Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles just allowed 22.6 points to the previously disastrous Eli Manning and a Giants offense that went seven straight games going back to last year without reaching 20 points on the scoreboard. Philadelphia also allowed more than 16 fantasy points to Alex Smith in Week 2. Consider Rivers a top-10 QB this week, despite a terrible Week 3.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Rivers is off to a strong start. He's the fantasy QB9 through two weeks, higher than where he was drafted among QBs in most leagues. He's a fringe QB1 option this week in 12-team leagues, as the Chiefs present a tougher challenge than the Dolphins did last week. Rivers has put up 17.5 points per week; meanwhile, the Chiefs allowed 24.8 points to Carson Wentz last week, after a more impressive 10.7 allowed to Tom Brady Week 1. The Chiefs are eight in our aFPA vs. QBs, but the Chargers could struggle to run the ball with a below-average offensive line that is already banged up, meaning more volume for Rivers.
Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins
Rivers averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game last year, finishing as the fantasy QB14; however, in a tough Week 1 matchup at Denver, Rivers threw three touchdown passes. His 17.7 fantasy points were good enough for to finish the week as the fantasy QB11. Now, he gets his home opener against a Dolphins team displaced for almost two weeks by Hurricane Irma. Fire up Rivers as a top-12 QB option in Week 2.
Week 1 at Denver Broncos
Rivers averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game last year, finishing as QB14; however, in his two games against the stiff Broncos defense last season, he only averaged 11.9 fantasy points. The Broncos only allowed one quarterback to reach 300 yards last season (Drew Brees in the Superdome) and only twice allowed more than one passing touchdown in a game. That's what Rivers is dealing with in Week 1; therefore, he should stay on your bench to start the season. No defense allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than Denver in 2016.
Fantasy Upside
Philip Rivers finished the 2016 season healthy despite playing behind a shoddy front line. Rivers was guilty of forcing attempts to a receiving corps that seemingly changed on a weekly basis. As a result, new HC Anthony Lynn must get Rivers back on track. Rivers' strengths are his accuracy and decision-making. Both were off-kilter in 2016 and need to be addressed. The return of Keenan Allen to join up-and-coming threats like Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman and Hunter Henry (along with returning weapons Antonio Gates and Travis Benjamin) will help. So will the addition of wideout Mike Williams, selected seventh overall in April's draft -- assuming his ailing back allows him to play this season.
Fantasy Downside
Rivers remains a top-flight player, but one can't ignore his career-high 21 interceptions to go with his 33 touchdown passes last season.
2017 Bottom Line
Playing in a new city and stadium under a new head coach (albeit with the same offensive coordinator) could create some inconsistency, but count on Rivers to be a high-end fantasy QB2 with the ability to put up QB1 numbers in any given week.
Week 17 vs. Kansas City
Philip Rivers had a pretty nice fantasy effort last week in a great matchup against the Browns. Rivers threw for 322 yards, two TDs and an INT. It was his first 300-plus yard game since Week 10 against Miami.
This week, Rivers gets a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who are still playing for seeding purposes, so Rivers falls down our list a bit out of QB1 range. Rivers last four games against the Chiefs have been a struggle, and is averaging just 243 yards a game and has just one TD in those four games. He also has four INTs in that same span. Rivers is 15th in our rankings this week, and if you have another option, you may want to strongly consider using it.
