Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
Philip Rivers had a rough fantasy outing against the Detroit Lions. He was 21/36 for 293 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, and finished as the Week 2 QB25 with 10.9 fantasy points. Rivers has attempted some deep attempts to Mike Williams but still prefers to target Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler with short passes. Through two games, Allen leads the team in target share, 36%, and Ekeler is second with 19%.
Rivers will look to bounce back as a high-end QB2 at home against the Houston Texans. The Texans defense is well below average as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked third-worst against quarterbacks. Houston gave up a QB12 performance to Drew Brees in Week 1 and a QB13 performance to Gardner Minshew in Week 2. As usual, Rivers will almost always provide a safe floor for owners who are looking for a borderline QB1/QB2 finish, but he does not have the weekly upside to finish as a top-five quarterback.
Week 2 at Detroit Lions
Philip Rivers had a sneaky good start to the fantasy season and led the Chargers to an overtime victory against the Colts. He threw for 333 yards, three touchdowns, one interception and finished as the QB10 in standard-scoring leagues. Rivers continued his trademark style of throwing short passes, as shown by throwing the tenth lowest average depth of target in Week 1 per NFL Next Gen Stats. However, his style was successful against the Colts who ran a zone heavy scheme.
Rivers was able to put up good numbers despite a poor performance from his offensive line, who gave up four sacks and nine hits. The Lions defensive line is better than the Colts and Rivers could find himself under a lot of pressure. This could cause him to lean heavily on Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen who are reliable short-yardage targets and can act as a release valve. Hunter Henry would also help alleviate pressure but he suffered a tibial plateau fracture and will miss at least 4-6 weeks. In addition to Henry, Rivers might be missing his deep threat target, Mike Williams. Williams is currently questionable and trending towards missing Week 2. Rivers is a mid to low end QB2 this week.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Phillip Rivers is back for his sixteenth season and his durability can be counted on. The last time Rivers played fewer than 16 games in a season was back in 2005. He has started in 208 consecutive regular-season games, which is tied for third-most of all time with Peyton Manning. In 2018, Rivers finished with 32 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 4,308 yards, and the QB17 with an average of 17.2 fantasy points per game.
4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Rivers as the QB16 in Week 1 with a median projection of 17.2 fantasy points against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts defense is average against quarterbacks as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has them ranked 14th best in the NFL. Rivers will almost always provide a safe floor for owners who are looking for stability but he does not have the weekly upside to finish as a top-five quarterback.
Fantasy Upside
What's not to like here? As ClutchPoints.com noted, Philip Rivers is coming off a terrific 2018 campaign in which he threw for 4,308 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 68.3% of his passes and registering a passer rating of 105.5 en route to a Pro Bowl appearance. The 37-year-old is entering his 16th NFL season, but doesn't seem to be showing any signs of slowing down after earning Pro Bowl selections in each of the last three years. Since Rivers became a full-time starter for the Bolts back in 2006, he has made eight trips to the Pro Bowl. From a fantasy perspective, Rivers benefits from a strong offensive line, a deep group of sure-handed running backs led by Melvin Gordon, a receiving corps featuring the uber-consistent Keenan Allen and upside in the form of Mike Williams, a potential talent on the rise, and tight end Hunter Henry, who should again be healthy after sitting out last season with a torn ACL.
Fantasy Downside
The downside here is minimal. Are we concerned about a possible Gordon contract holdout? The Chargers won four games without him last year. Are we worried that Henry's return might be slower than hoped? Henry's absence was a non-issue last season. Tyrell Williams' free-agent defection to Oakland? Mike Williams appears to be the answer there.
2019 Bottom Line
Rivers consistently outperforms his fantasy draft position, which makes him a QB2 capable of cracking your starting lineup on any given week. If you're of a mind to jump a little early on one of the more athletic, less-proven QBs, Rivers is the ideal insurance policy.
Week 19 at New England Patriots
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. The Bolts have the second-lowest implied team total of the eight remaining teams, however, at just 21.5 points. New England ranks top 10 in aFPA to QBs. Los Angeles is a trendy contrarian pick this week, but our projections have Philip Rivers near the bottom of QB options in the divisional round.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers offense will be at full strength in Week 17 with a chance to go from wild-card playoff team to home field advantage and playing against a potential lame duck coach in Denver's Vance Joseph. This is an offense to trust in the final week of the regular season, with an implied team total of 24 after being installed in Vegas as 6-point favorites.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Los Angeles hosts Baltimore on a short week with a chance to get its offense back to full strength, with the return of Melvin Gordon and possibly Keenan Allen. This game has a low over/under of 43.5 points, with the Chargers having an implied total of 23.75, lower than recent weeks against a strong Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank 4th in aFPA to QBs this season. Seeing as Rivers has been mostly a floor QB1 play this season, we have concerns in this match-up that he will not post QB1 numbers, given the match-up and low volume passing numbers he's posted in some games with Melvin Gordon active this season.
Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
In a huge divisional showdown on Thursday night, the Chargers and Chiefs have the second highest over/under on the Week 15 slate, with Los Angeles still with an above average 24.75 implied total despite being road underdogs. Philip Rivers streak of multiple touchdowns in every game this season came to an end last week, surprisingly against Cincinnati. Nevertheless, the Chiefs rank just 31st in aFPA to QBs. Rivers had his best fantasy day of the season in Week 1 against this defense and should return to QB1 numbers in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers face one of, if not, the worst defenses in the league at this point in the season this week. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 31 points. Only the Saints implied total is higher. Plus, Philip Rivers has thrown multiple touchdown passes every game this season. The Bengals are 28th in aFPA to QBs. Rivers, without Melvin Gordon, appears primed for a high volume, high efficiency passing attack to put him near the top of QB rankings in Week 14.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have an average implied team total of just over 24 points this week, but with negative game script expected as a road underdog, and Melvin Gordon out this week with a knee injury, Philip Rivers fantastic efficiency should now add some passing volume. Pittsburgh is fifth in aFPA to QBs, but Rivers had been match-up proof this season when it comes to providing a stable QB1 floor. He's averaging more than 19 fantasy points per game, and when he has more than 35 attempts, Rivers has reached that 19 points threshold each time. Rivers is a solid, safe option this week.
