Week 6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Philip Rivers had a forgettable game last week in a loss to the Browns. He threw for 243 yards and a pair of interceptions. Rivers is basically a caretaker for the offense – when he isn’t throwing picks – and is averaging just 30.8 pass attempts and 245.4 yards per game. Most concerning is his four touchdowns compared to five interceptions. The Colts are 3-2, but this isn’t the kind of upgrade they were hoping for over Jacoby Brissett. Rivers has a great matchup against the Bengals this week, but he’s barely worth considering in all but the deepest 2QB leagues right now. He’s a streamer at best and should stay on waivers in 1QB leagues.
Week 5 at Cleveland Browns
Philip Rivers had just 190 yards and a touchdown last week, but it was enough for a victory over the Bears, bringing the Colts to 3-1 on the season. Rivers is playing ball-control for a Colts team built to run and play good defense. As long as that’s a winning combination, it’s hard to imagine the Colts deviating from it.
This week, Rivers has a great matchup against the Browns. Only the Seahawks and Falcons rank lower in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season, giving Rivers some upside in deep leagues and 2QB formats, but I still expect the Colts to stick with a power running and solid defense approach.
Week 4 at Chicago Bears
Philip Rivers has been more of a game manager than fantasy producer in his early tenure with the Colts, including an efficient 17 of 21 for 217 yards and a touchdown in a blowout victory over the Jets last week. He’s going to have a harder time this week against a Bears defense that ranks fourth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Sit him in all league formats, even 2QB leagues if you can.
Week 3 vs. New York Jets
Philip Rivers threw 214 yards, a touchdown and a pick last week in a victory over the Vikings. The Colts defense did the heavy lifting, and Rivers ended up with just 25 pass attempts. Rivers is unreliable as a fantasy option at this stage in his career, and although he has a nice matchup against the Jets this week, it’s probably going to be another game where the Colts get ahead and then run the ball. Fantasy owners should probably leave Rivers on waivers, or consider him a low-end QB2 option.
Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Philip Rivers threw two interceptions in a close loss to the Jaguars last week, but he did complete 36 of 46 passes for 363 yards and a touchdown in his first start as a Colt. He also made excellent use of scat back Nyheim Hines and reminded everyone why Parris Campbell was highly touted coming out of Ohio State.
This week, Rivers faces a Vikings defense that should be good on paper but got absolutely torched by Aaron Rodgers and the packers last week. Rivers has upside this week, but should be considered more of a QB2 option rather than a weekly starter moving forward.
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Philip Rivers is coming off a bad year with 20 interceptions, but he still managed 4,615 yards and 23 touchdowns on a struggling team. This year, he should have a better supporting cast with one of the top offensive lines in football and an emerging defense. The question is whether or not the 38-year-old veteran has anything left in the tank after 16 years in the league (14 as a starter). We’ll find out. He’s got a nice matchup to start the season, as the Jaguars look like a mess after losing their top two corners and arguably their top two defensive linemen over the past year, but think of him as a low-end QB2 option while we see what this Colts offense is going to look like. They might ground-and-pound their way through the AFC South.
Fantasy Upside
Philip Rivers has been one of the steadiest fantasy quarterbacks over the past decade, and is always a value pick with a reasonable ADP. Over his last seven years, he’s averaged 4,483 yards and 29.7 touchdowns per season and has been a top-12 quarterback in fantasy points in five of the past seven seasons. Rivers will join a new team this year, but he will play under Head Coach Frank Reich, who coached him for three years with the Chargers. The transition shouldn’t be difficult with his familiarity with the system. He has good weapons in T.Y. Hilton and rookie Michael Pittman and the fourth-best offensive line according to Justin Edwards this year.
Fantasy Downside
Rivers has definitely slipped the past two years, ranking 18th in fantasy points last season and throwing 20 interceptions to 23 touchdowns. He’ll be 39 years old in December and it’s possible he’s just done. He looked like a shell of his old self last season, despite 4,615 yards. Frank Reich was pass-happy in 2018, second only to the Steelers in pass attempts, but plummeted to 25th last year – though the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck certainly contributed. However, the Colts just drafted a running back in the second round of the draft, despite already having a capable starter on the roster and they have an emerging defense. They could very well try to win on the ground and let Rivers play more of a game-manager role in the twilight of his career.
2020 Bottom Line
Even if Rivers is done being a quality starter, his 14th-round ADP in 12-team leagues makes him a pretty low-risk investment for fantasy drafts. He’s in a nice position to succeed in his new location and is worth considering in all league formats as a value QB2 you can plug and play.
Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 16, Rivers was 27/39 for 279 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and finished as the QB22.
Monitor Week 17 news closely because information is imperative to success in the final week. The Chargers have been out of the playoff picture for quite some time. However, at the time of writing this, the Chargers are likely to play their starters because this could be Rivers’ last game as a Charger.
Rivers is in a difficult matchup on the road and the Chargers are only implied for 18.25 points. Kansas City is the sixth-best defense against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Rivers ranked as the QB22. Better streaming options should be available on the waiver wire.
Week 16 vs. Oakland Raiders
After a QB7 performance in Week 14, Rivers came crashing back to earth. In Week 15, he was 28/39 for 307 yards, had one touchdown, three interceptions and finished as the QB29. Rivers has thrown 11 interceptions over his last five games.
The Raiders are the second-worst defense against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Rivers ranked as the QB15. This puts Rivers in play for championship matchups but his wide range of outcomes makes him a very risky start.
Week 15 vs. Minnesota Vikings
In Week 14, Rivers had a highly efficient performance and finished as the QB7. It was the first time this season Rivers finished above the QB9 mark. He was 16/22 for 314 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Not throwing an interception was truly shocking considering he had thrown eight interceptions in his previous three games combined.
Rivers broke out last week but it may have been a one and done performance. He is in play in two-quarterback leagues but trusting him in the semifinals of single quarterback leagues could burn fantasy managers. The Vikings are eighteenth best against quarterbacks, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Rivers ranked as a low-end QB2.
