Fantasy Upside
Alshon Jeffery has been slow to recover from a shoulder injury. If he were to miss time at the start of the season, Agholor would be sure to benefit along with tight end Zach Ertz. Agholor finished as a top-25 WR last season powered by eight touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
The Eagles like to spread the ball around. There were nine games last season when Agholor saw fewer than six targets. That usage makes him tough to predict weekly in redraft leagues when all the Eagles weapons are active.
2018 Bottom Line
Agholor's ninth-round ADP is very reasonable considering the status of Jeffery and the elite level of this offense last season. Agholor definitely has some sleeper appeal.
Super Bowl vs. New England Patriots
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the wide receivers in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Brandin Cooks>Alshon Jeffery>Nelson Agholor>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the receivers in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Brandin Cooks>Nelson Agholor>Alshon Jeffery>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
NFC Conference Championship vs. Minnesota Vikings
Going into the postseason, Agholor was Nick Foles' most targeted wide receiver since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz. That did not continue last week, as Foles spread it around with no receiver getting more than 5 targets (Agholor had 3). If Foles opts to stay away from Xavier Rhodes, that could increase Agholor's ceiling this week in what is expected to be the lower scoring game. In less than full PPR formats, Agholor is a better DFS value on paper than Alshon Jeffery.
Divisional Round vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles have the third-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 19 points as an underdog. The Falcons are more beatable through the air (19th in aFPA vs. WRs) compared to the ground (first in aFPA vs. RBs). Agholor has been Nick Foles' most targeted wide receiver since taking over for the injured Carson Wentz. If you're playing an Eagles receiver this week in DFS, Agholor provides the best value in what should be a negative game script.
Week 17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles have locked up home-field advantage in the postseason, and head coach Doug Pederson has indicated his offensive starters will not play the entire game Week 17. It's impossible to know how much Nelson Agholor will play. For that reason alone, he is not a starting consideration in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Eagles play Christmas night (Monday), and anybody with Eagles players must be aware that Doug Pederson has hinted this week of resting starters if/when the Eagles lock up home field advantage. If the Vikings lose Saturday (a long shot at Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers), the Eagles will have already done that. Otherwise, the Eagles currently have the third-highest team total in Vegas this week, and the Raiders are poor against WRs (23rd in aFPA). Agholor caught 7-of-9 targets from Nick Foles last week. That's promising. He's a viable FLEX option in Week 16.
Week 15 at New York Giants
The Eagles still have an implied team total in Vegas in the top half of teams this week despite starting back-up QB Nick Foles, and the loss of their starting QB could mean increased volume for the backfield. Here's promising news for Nelson Agholor though. According to NFL's Next Gen Stats, Foles has thrown just 5.8% of his passes outside the tackle box the last two seasons compared to 11.7% from Carson Wentz. Agholor plays in the slot. The matchup is also a good one for him. Consider him a boom-or-bust FLEX option this week.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles-Rams game has the third-highest over/under in Vegas this week at 48 points. Over the last four weeks, the Rams have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards in the league on the fifth-most targets. Overall, the Rams are fifth in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. This is a matchup where Nelson Agholor is still a risky FLEX in the fantasy playoffs. He's had huge games, but he's also had week killers. Tight end Zach Ertz cleared for practice also hurts his ceiling.
Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles have the fourth-highest implied team total of the week at 26.25 points, and Seattle is top five in aFPA versus RBs. That means the Eagles could rely on Carson Wentz to attack a banged up Seahawks secondary. However, Nelson Agholor has been too inconsistent to start, despite a touchdown salvaging his fantasy day last week. He has failed to reach 50 yards since Week 6.
Week 12 vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears are a solid 12th in aFPA vs. WRs this season and Carson Wentz has not been throwing to Nelson Agholor nearly enough to return fantasy results for owners over the past three weeks. He has just 4 targets per game over that span, without a touchdown or 40 yards receiving. He's not a viable starting option in Week 12.
