Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks
Tyrell Williams has certainly made the most of his targets. Just eight in his past two games but 236 yards and three touchdowns, severely outproducing Mike Williams in recent weeks. With Mike Williams only catching one pass in three of his last four games, we can't recommend him in fantasy lineups in Week 9.
Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
The Chargers are favored with an implied team total of 26 points, foreshadowing what should be a successful offensive day for this offense. Tyrell Williams will most likely face the Titans' best CB Adoree Jackson, freeing up Mike Williams to get the dreadful Malcolm Butler in coverage. Butler has allowed a passer rating north of 130.0 this season, whereas Jackson's is less than 60. If you're looking for a Week 7 flier for your FLEX, Mike Williams might be a wise choice. Even Michael Crabtree turned back the clock on Butler last week. It's still high risk though, given Williams' floor this season has been very low.
Week 6 at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers have a below average implied team total this week in Cleveland, facing a rebuilt Browns defense that has forced 11 turnovers in three home games this year. This unit ranks 10th in the NFL in aFPA to WRs. Mike Williams has back-to-back weeks of fewer than five targets. That's not reliable enough to put into fantasy starting lineups.
Week 5 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers have the third-highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.75 points. Oakland is just 21st in aFPA to WRs this season. Keenan Allen has been a bit of a disappointment with three straight weeks without a touchdown and below 70 yards, but the targets are still there (nine per game), which means they aren't going to Mike Williams. Williams has less than four targets in two of four games this season. That type of inconsistency makes him a risky touchdown-or-bust option each week. If you have more consistent options, utilize them.
Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers rank 10th in aFPA to WRs, and only the Chiefs have a higher implied team total this week, with the Chargers expected to score 28.5 points. Keenan Allen did not practice Thursday with a knee issue. That needs to be monitored, as it would significantly increase the ranking for Mike Williams this week. If Allen is active, Williams continues to be a touchdown-or-bust situation. We want to see him sustain snap counts over 70 percent (which he hasn't done yet) and consistent targets (hasn't seen more than seven targets in a game).
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Proceed cautiously with the Chargers offense this week, despite the fact that they lit up the Chiefs and Bills in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams defense is most certainly not the Chiefs or Bills. A low implied team total of 20.5 points is also cause for concern. The Rams are first in fantasy points allowed to WRs, with less than 60 yards given up to the position each of the first two games, with no touchdowns. Granted, it was against Derek Carr and Sam Bradford at QB, but this is not a week to have any confidence in a Chargers WR not named Keenan Allen.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost 47-3 to the Ravens last week. Enough said. Keenan Allen kicked butt in Week 1 against the Chiefs, torching them for 8-108-1 on 11 targets, but Mike Williams looked good too. A solid 5-81 day puts this Williams in the driver's seat to be the Chargers WR2 this season and a red zone threat. Week 2 should be no different against a Bills secondary that allowed three touchdowns a receivers in Week 1. One starting CB got banged up for Buffalo last week and the other got torched. It's a good match-up on paper, but game script could hurt Williams' targets if the Chargers get up early on the Bills. It's still likely a risky play and bench stash for now.
Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points. The Chiefs were dead last a season ago in aFPA to WRs. With Hunter Henry out for the season and Antonio Gates not listed as the starter for Week 1 at tight end, there are plenty of vacant targets last season for somebody to pick up behind Keenan Allen. However, the uncertainty in the target pecking order renders Williams a non-starter in redraft leagues until this WR depth chart sorts itself.
Fantasy Upside
Williams is warning his doubters not to label him a bust just yet. He admits he's heard people throw that term around after catching just 11 passes for 95 yards in 10 games during his rookie season. "I'm excited about this year to not only prove to everybody else, but prove to myself that I know who I am and what I can be," he explained. "I wasn't capable of doing what I can do last year because of the injury. This offseason, I feel 100 percent. I'm ready to go out there and dominate." With Hunter Henry suffering a season-ending ACL injury during OTAs and Antonio Gates not currently on the roster (although that could change), the 6-foot-3, 203-pound Williams could emerge as a red zone target.
Fantasy Downside
Following a breakout freshman season at Clemson, Williams fractured his neck in the season opener his sophomore year, missing the rest of the 2015 campaign. While some questioned if he’d ever be the same, he bounced back to help the Tigers win the national title by hauling in 84 passes for 1,171 yards, and 10 TDs in 2016. Unfortunately, he tweaked his back less than two weeks later during the first day of rookie minicamp. Williams missed the rest of the offseason program as well as training camp before he was cleared to practice once the regular season began. He was thrown into the fire, and it all added up to a lost season for the talented wideout. It also leaves questions about his development.
2018 Bottom Line
Now we'll see if Williams can rebound. Worth noting: Melvin Gordon did not find the end zone once as a rookie before becoming one of the game’s most prolific touchdown machines. In fact, the last three Chargers chosen in the first round prior to Williams (Jason Verrett, Melvin Gordon, Joey Bosa) all missed at least a quarter of their rookie campaigns, but they bounced back the following season to make the Pro Bowl in their second years. Williams isn’t making any guarantees, but he’s excited to finally show the fans the real Mike Williams. Fantasy owners looking to get a piece of that won't have to pay a prohibitive price.
Week 12 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys present a plus matchup on Thanksgiving, as Dallas is just 23rd in overall fantasy points allowed to the position and 25th in aFPA against WRs. However, no Chargers pass-catcher is averaging 6 targets or more per game other than Keenan Allen. Mike Williams is not a fantasy starter.
