Fantasy Upside
After an injury-plagued rookie year, Mike Williams broke through in a major way in 2018. His 11 total touchdowns were the fourth most by an NFL wideout and he authored a performance for the ages in Week 15 against division rival Kansas City, hauling in a career-high seven catches for 76 yards and two touchdowns along with a touchdown run and the game-winning two-point conversion. Overall, he caught 43 passes for 664 yards (in addition to his 10 receiving TDs) and the Chargers were thrilled with their young wideout's progress. "His route running, his speed, his quickness and his awareness -- his toughness to go across the middle and make tough catches on third down," GM Tom Telesco said in highlighting the growth. "But we're also in an offense where we have a lot of guys to get the football to, so he didn't have 80, 90 or 100 catches, but he has that type of ability. With the other guys we have, the opportunities he had, he really took advantage of it. It's great to see."
Fantasy Downside
Lack of consistent opportunities in an offense in which Keenan Allen got more than double Williams' targets last season is an issue that must change.
2019 Bottom Line
The good news? We expect the workload to increase as the departure of Tyrell Williams should give Mike the boost in targets that will allow him to be more than a touchdown-dependent spot play for fantasy owners this season. Playing with a consistently high-end QB in Philip Rivers also works in Williams’ favor.
Week 19 at New England Patriots
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. The Bolts have the second-lowest implied team total of the eight remaining teams, however, at just 21.5 points. New England ranks 19th in aFPA to WRs. Bill Belichick often takes away a teams best option in the passing game, which could mean bad news for Keenan Allen and good news for Mike Williams in the red zone. He's a sneaky top 12 option on the position.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers offense will be at full strength in Week 17 with a chance to go from wild-card playoff team to home field advantage and playing against a potential lame duck coach in Denver's Vance Joseph. This is an offense to trust in the final week of the regular season, with an implied team total of 24 after being installed in Vegas as 6-point favorites. The Broncos are ranked third in aFPA to RBs, which could funnel more passes to Chargers receivers, with Denver ranked just 15th in aFPA to WRs. However, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are the primary pass catchers in this offense, and the rest of the Chargers pass catchers have been an afterthought when those two have been healthy this season.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Los Angeles hosts Baltimore on a short week with a chance to get its offense back to full strength, with the return of Melvin Gordon and possibly Keenan Allen. This game has a low over/under of 43.5 points, with the Chargers having an implied total of 23.75, lower than recent weeks against a strong Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank first in aFPA to WRs this season. Keenan Allen will be a game-time decision after leaving last week's game with a hip pointer. If active, Mike Williams goes back to being a risky FLEX. If Allen doesn't play, it's hard to not start Mike Williams after his explosion in Kansas City.
Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
In a huge divisional showdown on Thursday night, the Chargers and Chiefs have the second highest over/under on the Week 15 slate, with Los Angeles still with an above average 24.75 implied total despite being road underdogs. The Chiefs rank just 17th in aFPA to WRs. Keenan Allen leads all receivers with 66 targets over the past six weeks. Over that span, Mike Williams has just 19 targets and Tyrell Williams just 20. Neither is a fantasy starter at this point.
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers face one of, if not, the worst defenses in the league at this point in the season this week. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 31 points. Only the Saints implied total is higher. Plus, Philip Rivers has thrown multiple touchdown passes every game this season. The Bengals are 17th in aFPA to WRs. With Melvin Gordon out, Keenan Allen is exploding; however, it started after the bye week. He has 57 targets in his past five games. His elite talent is showing again, and he is among the best WR options in Week 14. Only Allen is a viable starting receiver in this offense though, as Mike and Tyrell Williams have a combined nine targets in their past two games.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have an average implied team total of just over 24 points this week, but with negative game script expected as a road underdog, and Melvin Gordon out this week with a knee injury, Philip Rivers fantastic efficiency should now add some passing volume. That should also help target monster Keenan Allen, who is averaging more than 20 PPR points per game since the Chargers bye. However, Mike and Tyrell Williams are too much of a risk to start in Week 13, with only 10 and 15 targets, respectively, over their past four games. Both are too volatile to start in re-draft leagues.
Week 12 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Chargers have an implied team total of 28 points, an attractive projection. This is a run funnel defense that the Chargers will face with Arizona ranking top 10 in aFPA to WRs, and Mike Williams is likely to face Bene Benwikere in coverage, who only allows a competition percentage of 53.3 percent. Williams has been inconsistent in regards to his target volume in recent weeks, with less than four targets in each of his last four games. He's also failed to play 60 percent of snaps in any game since the bye week. All of these factors cement his Week 12 status as a non-fantasy starter.
Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners should expect a run-heavy attack this week for the Chargers. Denver is eighth in aFPA to QBs and 12th in aFPA to WRs this season but just 18th in aFPA to RBs. With a large implied team total of 26.75, Tyrell Williams could make another splash play, even if Philip Rivers has five consecutive weeks of fewer than 30 pass attempts. However, Keenan Allen's large 35 percent target share in LA's two games since its bye and Tyrell Williams dominating WR2 snaps, keeps Mike Williams out of starting lineup consideration.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
Los Angeles has the third-highest implied team total on the Sunday slate, and the Chargers face a pitiful Raiders secondary ranked just 26th in aFPA to WRs. For Mike Williams, there was an interesting development as well in Week 9. Tyrell Williams played 92 percent of snaps compared to just 29 percent for Mike Williams. Because of that, Mike is not a starting consideration in Week 10.
