Week 11 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Mexico City)
Another game completed, another scoreless week for Mike Williams. In Week 10, he finished with two receptions on three targets, for 55 yards, 81 air yards, 10% of the team targets, 20% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR40.
The Chiefs defense is seventh-best against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the assumption of rational coaching, the Chargers will try to beat the Chiefs with the running game. However, if the Chargers are down multiple touchdowns early, they might be forced to abandon their game plan and turn Philip Rivers loose in the passing game. This game has the highest over/under (52.5) of the week. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a low-end half PPR WR3.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
Mike Williams still hasn’t scored a touchdown but he finished with over 100 yards for the first time this season. In Week 9, he appeared on Josh Hermsmeyer’s buy low air yards model for the fourth consecutive week and finished with three receptions on four targets, for 111 yards, 47 air yards, 14% of the team targets, 21% of the team air yards, and finished as the half PPR WR21.
Oakland is the third-worst defense against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. As mentioned before, Williams has been a staple on Hermsmeyer’s buy low air yards model but he is not on the list this week. Positive touchdown regression should hit at some point so cross your fingers it is this week against a poor secondary. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Williams ranked as a low-end half PPR WR2.
Week 9 vs Green Bay Packers
In Week 8, Williams was a chalky daily fantasy start and finished with three receptions on six targets, for a very nice 69 yards, 112 air yards, 21% of the team targets, and 43% of the team air yards.
Green Bay is the eighth-best defense against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Williams has been on Josh Hermsmeyer’s buy low air yards model multiple times this season and should have a big game at some point. The problem is we don’t know when he is going to erupt. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as a high-end half PPR WR3. Williams appears to be a weekly boom or bust WR3.
Week 8 at Chicago Bears
In Week 7, Williams had four receptions on six targets, 47 yards, 16% of the team targets, and 11% of the team air yards.
The Bears are sixth-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Williams hasn’t found the end zone yet but positive touchdown regression should hit at some point. He will continue to be a deep threat and has fringe WR1/WR2 upside on a weekly basis. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as the Half PPR WR37. He is a boom or bust start against the Bears.
Week 8 at Chicago Bears
Williams racked up the air yards in Week 6 but did not score a touchdown or have over 100 receiving yards. However, it is encouraging to see 347 total air yards over the last two weeks. Williams will surely break out at some point if his usage continues at a high rate. In Week 6, Williams had five receptions on 10 targets, 72 yards, 23% of the team targets, and 40% of the team air yards.
Williams will try to turn all of his air yards into a touchdown against the Titans. However, finding the end zone will not be easy because the Titans secondary is seventh-best defense against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Allen ranked as the half PPR WR27 this week.
Week 6 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
In Week 5, Williams played on 89% of snaps and led the team in air yards (155). For reference, Keenan Allen was second with only 50 air yards. Williams had six receptions on 13 targets, 74 yards, 27% of the team targets, and 73% of the team air yards.
Williams made an appearance on John Paulsen's Week 6 Sneaky Starts article. The Steelers are twentieth best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Williams hasn’t found the end zone yet but positive touchdown regression should hit at some point. He will continue to be a deep threat and has fringe WR1/WR2 upside on a weekly basis. 4for4 rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Williams ranked as the Half PPR WR35.
Week 5 vs. Denver Broncos
Mike Williams missed Week 4 against the Dolphins with a back injury.
Williams was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday but on Friday, told ESPN reporter, Eric Williams, “I’m playing. I’m solid.” Williams is still listed as questionable for Week 5 but he is trending towards playing. Monitor his status closely as we approach Sunday. If Williams does play, he will face the sixth-best defense against wide receivers per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric.
Week 4 at Miami Dolphins
UPDATE:
Mike Williams is OUT against the Dolphins with a back injury.
In Week 3, Williams played on 93% of snaps, had three receptions on seven targets, 45 yards, 15% of the team targets, and 28% of the team air yards. Williams had 133 air yards, which trailed Keenan Allen’s 166 air yards. Williams did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday so monitor his health closely before putting him in your lineup. If Williams does play, he has the potential to break out against the Dolphins who are 13th worst against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Williams will continue to be a deep threat and has fringe WR1/WR2 upside on a weekly basis. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Williams ranked as the Half PPR WR37.
Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
In Week 2, Mike Williams was a game-time decision against a strong Detroit Lions’ secondary. Williams played on 66% of snaps and finished as the Half PPR WR41 with 9.8 fantasy points. He had three receptions on five targets for 83 yards, 14% of the team targets, and 24% of the team air yards. For reference, Austin Ekeler had a higher team target share with 17%.
This week, Williams draws a favorable matchup against the Houston Texans’ secondary that was third-worst against wide receivers in 2018, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Williams will continue to be a deep threat and has fringe WR1/WR2 upside on a weekly basis. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen ranked as the Half PPR WR36.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Mike Williams will have a difficult time matching his efficiency numbers from 2018. He finished the season with 43 receptions, 664 yards and an astounding 10 touchdowns. His touchdown catch rate of 23% is unsustainably high but an increase in volume could help to counter the inevitable decrease in efficiency. Former teammate Tyrell Williams is now with the Oakland Raiders, which should increase the Williams’ opportunity. However, Wiliams will still have to compete for targets with Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, who is back from an ACL injury and will most likely siphon targets.
John Paulsen has Williams as the PPR WR29 in Week 1 with a median projection of 12.3 fantasy points. He faces a tough matchup as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has the Colts ranked sixth-best against wide receivers. Williams always has big game potential and should be targeted if you are shooting for upside in Week 1.
