Week 2 vs. Cowboys
The workload that Mike Williams saw in Week 1 will make for encouraging reading if this trend continues. Williams saw the same number of targets as Keenan Allen, with Williams catching eight of his 12 looks for 82 yards and a touchdown. Williams has just a single game in his career in which he commanded more targets than he did last week. The Cowboys leaked 226 receiving yards to the Buccaneers' secondary wide receivers last week, and this is a massive reason why Williams and the Chargers WRs have our the best matchup in the entire league this week.
Week 1 vs. Washington
2020 was not exactly a banner season for Mike Williams, as he was some way behind Keenan Allen in the target pecking order for the Chargers. Williams commanded an average of 5.7 targets per game, posting 3.2 receptions for just over 50 receiving yards per game. After Justin Herbert came into the lineup in Week 2, Williams averaged just 9.3 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats. The Chargers' new coaching staff have talked up Williams incessantly since they arrived in LA, but the former Clemson standout faces a stiff challenge in Week 1. Washington allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers a year ago, and positively suffocated number two wideouts. As per Football Outsiders, Washington allowed WR2s just 46.8 receiving yards per game, against a league average of 53.3. Pro Football Focus also doesn't think much of Williams's chances this week, awarding him the 58th best duel in their WR/CB matchup for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
The Chargers need to start getting more out of Mike Williams. Only nine wide receivers in the NFL are scheduled to have a larger cap hit in 2021 than he is. His $15.68-million number is the result of the Chargers exercising the fifth-year option of his rookie contract. According to the L.A. Times, the personal windfall means Williams will have a higher salary this season than Jarvis Landry, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. Williams one 1,000-yard season and another 10-touchdown season and is one of the league's best at going over defensive backs to win 50/50 balls. The good news? As CBSSports.com recently noted, incoming offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who served as the Saints’ QB coach and carries over his version of New Orleans’ passing game, suggested Williams will fill the “X” receiver role -- the same spot Thomas runs out of for the Saints. That role could allow Williams to put it all together (in terms of yardage and touchdown totals) and finally fulfill his promise.
Fantasy Downside
There's plenty of room for Williams to be more productive and consistent after a 2020 season in which he disappeared at times. Averaging slightly more than three receptions a game, Williams became even less of a downfield threat than Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson, both of whom possess the speed to stress secondaries. Still, neither have the same imposing, physical presence that Williams brings to the table.
2021 Bottom Line
With a brand new coaching staff and with Justin Herbert coming off his NFL Rookie of the Year performance, there's plenty of reason to hope Williams rebounds this fall. Remember, the departure of Hunter Henry opens up some targets as well, some of which Williams should benefit from. Still, Keenan Allen's presence will continue to be a limiting factor when it comes to Williams' workload -- even with Williams playing the same role that allowed Thomas to up record-setting stats in New Orleans.
Week 17 at Kansas City
Williams had a solid game last week against the Denver Broncos as he caught 4-of-10 targets for 54 yards. Without Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry, Williams became the default No.1 option for Justin Herbert. Even though he wasn’t as productive as we’d hope he’d be, the number of targets Williams saw is a very encouraging sign.
Taking on the Kansas City Chiefs this week, Williams will once again be relied upon one as the WR1 in this offense. With an expected large workload, Williams can safely be counted on as WR2 in this regular-season finale.
Week 14 vs Atlanta
Williams had a tough outing last week against the New England Patriots as he caught 4-of-9 targets for 43 yards. The nine targets were a season-high for Williams, but many of these targets were late-game heaves by Justin Herbert in an already lost game. Williams continues to be the ultimate boom-or-bust WR in fantasy, and after consecutive weeks of busting, there appears to be a huge boom week on the horizon as the Atlanta Falcons rank 29th aFPA to WRs this season. Williams’ fantasy managers should know by now to temper their expectations as he will head into Week 14 as a low-end WR3, but if there was ever a week for Williams to go nuts, it would be this week.
Week 13 vs New England
Williams had a disappointing game last week against Buffalo, as he saw five targets for three receptions for 26 yards. Williams had been the ultimate boom-or-bust WR in fantasy this season as he had an unfortunate bust week in a game where Justin Herbert threw for a career-high 52 pass attempts. What makes things difficult for fantasy managers is the return of Austin Ekeler as he saw a team-high 16 targets. With Keenan Allen already being one of the NFL’s leaders in targets, Ekeler’s usage rate might just make Williams more boom than bust most weeks. At any rate, Williams is more of a WR4 this week against a tough New England secondary.
Week 12 at Buffalo
Williams caught his fourth touchdown of the season last week against the New York Jets as he finished the game with four receptions for 72 yards and one touchdown. Known as Justin Herbert’s deep-play specialist, Williams’ 39-yard score came from an intermediate route where he turned up field and shook off two tacklers in route to the endzone.
Williams will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 12 who are ranked eighth in aFPA to WRs this season. Williams’ chemistry with Herbert has grown with every game this season, so Williams can be trusted as a high-end WR3 in this one.
Week 11 vs New York Jets
Williams had a dud of a game last week against Miami, as he caught two balls for 38 yards. After consecutive games of five receptions and at least 80 yards, Williams was stifled against the elite Miami secondary. The good thing, however, is that Williams still had five targets, something to keep in mind as he has a much easier matchup this week in the New York Jets.
New York is ranked 22nd in aFPA to WRs this season and has been prone to giving up big plays. With improved chemistry with Justin Herbert as the season has progressed, Williams is shaping up to be a boom-or-bust WR3 this week with the upside seeing him have a huge game.
Week 10 at Miami
Williams caught five receptions for 81 yards last week against the Raiders in yet another strong game for the young WR. Williams almost had the game-winning touchdown on a spectacular play that saw him hit the found very hard and left him visibly shaken up. What’s important about Williams’ performance was his seven targets after seeing eight targets the week prior. While Keenan Allen has been hogging most of the targets, Williams hadn’t seen more than two a game with Justin Herbert under center, but that seems to be changing now as the Charger offense continues to grow under its rookie signal-caller.
In a good matchup against the Dolphins, Williams should be viewed as WR3 as he and Herbert’s chemistry continue to grow.
Week 9 vs Las Vegas
Williams finally had a productive game with Herbert under center and a healthy Keenan Allen, as it was the second time this season he’s had more than two targets with Herbert. Williams was targeted eight times last week, which he turned into five receptions for 99 yards and one touchdown. The bulk of Williams’ production came in the second half, as the team went away from Allen and ultimately blew a 24-3 lead against Denver. This performance is encouraging for Williams as we now know he’s capable of having a big game in the current offense. Heading into a winnable matchup against the Raiders, Williams is the ultimate boom-or-bust WR3 in this one.
