Week 9 vs. Oakland Raiders
With Jay Ajayi gone and the Dolphins struggling to stay competitive, expect more negative game script, but the matchup is good against a Raiders team ranked only 24th in our PPR WR rankings. However, DeVante Parker's return will take snaps away from Stills and turns him back into a touchdown-or-bust proposition. He's likely too risky to play this week.
Week 8 at Baltimore Ravens
Kenny Stills has a touchdown in his last four games with Matt Moore at quarterback. He's a sneaky FLEX again, coming off a monster Week 7. However, the cornerback matchup is not great, as Jimmy Smith has been one of the best in the game this season. Stills had just 2 receptions against the Ravens last season, and DeVante Parker (ankle) is looking more like a possibility to return Thursday. If he's back, Stills is a very risky start.
Week 7 vs. New York Jets
Kenny Stills caught all 4 of his targets with DeVante Parker sidelined last week, including one for a touchdown. The Jets are just 23rd in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. Therefore, Stills is a potential sneaky start in deeper leagues if Parker is out again. He put up nine PPR points against the Jets earlier this season.
Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins are a dumpster fire. This offense is only averaging 10 points per game, and now this week, the offensive line coach was forced to resign after a video surfaced of him snorting a white powdery substance in his office! And now DeVante Parker has not practiced this week (ankle). Theoretically, that would be good news for a plug-and-play Kenny Stills proposition, but this offense just looks too terrible to take a chance on in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Tennessee Titans
Despite a putrid offense that has looked bad against the Jets and Saints (of all teams), Kenny Stills gets the best matchup possible this week against a Titans defense ranked 32nd in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings, and he gets them at home. Stills is playing starter snaps, but he isn't getting enough targets. He's nothing more than a dart throw in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (game in London)
The Saints have allowed the 10th most points to opposing PPR WRs, and Kenny Stills is playing his old team. Old team narrative! Stills had 10 targets last week but only 5 the week prior, and he has typically been inconsistent with the Dolphins. He's averaging a respectable 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game; however, Stills doesn't feel like much more than a WR3 for GPPs in DFS for Week 4.
Week 3 at New York Jets
The Dolphins have a top-10 implied team total this week as they play the lowly Jets on the road. Stills scored last week, but he's going to be a touchdown-or-bust proposition each week. How lucky do you feel? We can't recommend starting Stills in most 10-or-12 team leagues, even against the Jets.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Kenny Stills thrived last season when DeVante Parker saw limited snaps, but Stills' fantasy value was very dependent on touchdowns (9 touchdowns on 42 receptions). Therefore, he is too risky of a play in starting lineups this week against a Chargers defense ranked top-10 in our aFPA vs. PPR WRs. He's especially a risky option with Parker healthy and establishing preseason chemistry with Jay Cutler.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game has been postponed due to Hurricane Irma and will now be played Week 11. Make sure you do not have any Dolphins or Bucs in your Week 1 fantasy lineups.
Fantasy Upside
The Dolphins re-signed Kenny Stills, indicating he is a priority for their passing game. Combine that with not giving Jarvis Landry an extension this preseason, and Stills seems to be more in Miami's long-term plans. Stills is a home run threat. His 17.3 yards per reception ranked third behind only DeSean Jackson and Chris Hogan. His nine touchdowns were also tied for sixth in the league.
Fantasy Downside
Regression alert! Kenny Stills caught only 42 passes on 81 targets for those 9 touchdowns. 4for4's TJ Hernandez researched year-to-year statistical correlations for WRs on the same team in consecutive seasons and found that targets per game and receiving yards per game had the highest correlation. Receiving touchdowns and touchdown rate were among the lowest. That's not a good sign for Stills.
2017 Bottom Line
Stills could be worth the flier in best-ball leagues with his home run capabilities. However, in redraft leagues where week-to-week consistency matters, Stills projects for far more weekly downside than upside in a run heavy offense.
