Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins have a bottom half of the league implied team total in Vegas this week of just 21.75 points and are home underdogs, which could lead to negative game script and more targets for Kenny Stills. Plus, DeVante Parker is out. Stills was the WR3 in PPR in the three weeks Parker did not play last year. And Ryan Tannehill is back—a quarterback he's had good chemistry with in the past. The Titans were also just league average in aFPA to WRs last season. All this adds up to Stills being a very intriguing WR3/FLEX in Week 1. Did we mention Jarvis Landry's targets are gone, too?
Fantasy Upside
The Dolphins have a gaping void of targets from last year's roster—290 are missing. Only the Ravens have more vacant targets from a season ago. That gives Kenny Stills a huge opportunity to break out in 2018. Stills outperformed DeVante Parker when given the opportunity last season (1.67 fantasy points/target vs. 1.35 fantasy points/target for Parker). With Ryan Tannehill coming back, there’s even more reason for optimism. In 2016, Stills was even more efficient, averaging 2.11 PPR fantasy points/target. That would have ranked sixth in the NFL last season.
Fantasy Downside
In redraft leagues, Stills could show some weekly inconsistencies with DeVante Parker having averaged more targets per game last season and the Dolphins signing Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola to compete for the slot role. Kenyan Drake also saw his share of targets out of the backfield.
2018 Bottom Line
At his 11th-round ADP, Stills is a bonafide sleeper. He's still only 26 years old and already finished as a top-30 WR in fantasy last year, despite a lack of consistent targets and terrible QB play from Jay Cutler.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins host the Bills in Week 17, looking to spoil Buffalo's playoff hopes. Buffalo is top five in aFPA to WRs this season. However, if DeVante Parker is out, Stills becomes a FLEX option. If Parker plays, Stills is not a viable starter. There is enough evidence to back this up throughout this season.
Week 16 at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami has the fourth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 16.5 points, and the Dolphins must go on the road to face a Chiefs team still playing for the AFC West crown. Not a good combination. The good news is Stills faces a Chiefs defense ranked 21st in aFPA against WRs and DeVante Parker may be out. If Parker is out, that means Stills is back in a situation where he averaged 17.6 PPR points per game in Weeks 5-7. Monitor Parker's status. If he's out, Stills is a viable FLEX in Week 16.
Week 15 at Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins clearly had their best performances of the season at home the past two weeks against the Patriots and Broncos. But this warm weather team must now go to Buffalo, where Miami has a bottom-six implied team total in Vegas this week. The Dolphins also haven't scored more than 21 points in any road game this season, but Kenny Stills has scored and received 8 targets in his last two games against Buffalo. In deep leagues, he's a boom-or-bust FLEX option but should likely remain on your bench.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
Kenny Stills exploded for 13 targets last week and has out-targeted DeVante Parker 19 to 7 over the past two weeks. That kind of volume and his big-play ability puts Stills on the FLEX radar for Week 14 against the Patriots, who are allowing the sixth-fewest standard fantasy points to opposing receivers over the last four weeks. This defense has greatly improved from its No. 21 aFPA ranking vs. WRs.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Miami-Denver has the lowest over/under in Vegas for Week 13, with the Dolphins only expected to score 19 points. Plus, Kenny Stills' best games have come with Jay Cutler on the bench, which isn't the case this week. Bench Stills.
Week 12 at New England Patriots
Kenny Stills blew up last week as the preferred target of Matt Moore, who came into the game after Jay Cutler was concussed. However, Stills does not have a good track record against the Patriots, failing to reach 60 yards in his last four games against them. His 8 targets in back-to-back weeks are encouraging, but he is still third in line for targets behind Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. He's a boom-or-bust option each week—Week 12 is no different.
Week 11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are healthy. Kenny Stills has not been a fantasy asset in weeks when that is the case, and that is again the case in Week 11. Don't start him.
Week 10 at Carolina Panthers
The return of DeVante Parker makes Kenny Stills too risky to start in Week 10. Case and point...last week. Only 3 receptions on 4 targets. Don't start him.
