Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins host the Patriots, a situation Miami has surprised in the past, but not worth banking on in the fantasy playoffs. The Dolphins have a bottom six implied team total this week of fewer than 20 points. New England ranks top 10 in aFPA to WRs. Combine all of this with an offense ranked near the bottom in total offense, and there isn't a single Miami WR we feel comfortable starting in Week 14. None crack the top 35 in PPR. Over the past three games, five Miami wideouts have combined for two double-digit PPR games with none reaching 15 points.
Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills rank first in aFPA to WRs. That should mean more work for Miami backs this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks just 21st in aFPA to RBs. That's not good news for Miami receivers, who have struggled all season to put up fantasy production on a consistent basis. Over the past three games, five Dolphins receivers have a total of two double-digit PPR games. None of the Miami wideouts can be trusted.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins went from 10-point underdogs to 7.5-point underdogs with the news that Ryan Tannehill would make his return, but Miami's implied team total of 21.75 points is still less than ideal. The Colts are only 22nd in the league in aFPA to WRs, but given target distribution, we'd only trust Danny Amendola as a deep league FLEX option out of this group of Miami wideouts. Amendola has at least five receptions in five consecutive games. By comparison, Kenny Stills has less than 30 yards in every game since Week 6. Hard pass.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Brock Osweiler experience continues at Lambeau Field, with the Dolphins having an extremely low implied team total of less than 20 points in Week 10. Plus, the Dolphins are basically deploying a WRBC. No Dolphins receiver over the past three games is averaging seven targets per game. Danny Amendola would be the best of a bad bunch of options for PPR leagues, with five receptions in four consecutive games. Kenny Stills is not an option though at this point.
Week 7 vs. Detroit Lions
No Dolphins WR is averaging 5.5 targets this season. That's just hard to rely on in re-draft leagues each week. Stills had just two targets last week and is only averaging 4.3 per game. He's a non-starter at this point in the season, especially with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears
The Dolphins are 31st in the NFL in plays per game and face the Bears strong defense in Week 6 with an implied team total of less than 20 points. It's not as if any Dolphins receiver would be worth playing, even if this was a good match-up. It's impossible to project who will have a good game in a pass-catching core where nobody is averaging five targets per game. That includes Kenny Stills. Ignore is big Week 1, because there's no way to guess when a game like that will pop up again with his low target volume.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins had the most predictable of blowout losses in Week 4, and Miami has a bottom-seven implied team total in Week 5 of just 21.25 points. Kenny Stills has a 20% target share in this offense, which sounds promising. Here's the problem: the Dolphins have a paltry 99 total targets on the season. So Kenny Stills leads the team with 4.75 targets per game. You know what's worse than a running back by commitee for fantasy? A wide receiver by commitee situation. And that's what we have in Miami. Start Kenny Stills if you'd like, but you better hope for a touchdown. He's a risky FLEX, at best.
Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
With the Patriots ranked only 23rd in aFPA to WRs and an above-average total of 48.5 points, there are reasons to like Kenny Stills in Week 4. However, this continues to be a committee, as Ryan Tannehill is spreading the ball around. Stills may be playing 90 percent snaps or more, but he's yet to eclipse five targets in a game. That means low-percentage splash plays or touchdowns are essential for him to prove valuable in starting lineups. The large target hole left by Jarvis Landry is not going to Stills early in the season. Through three weeks, five different Dolphins have double-digit targets and none have more than 14 (Jakeem Grant). DeVante Parker was also added back to the mix last week for three targets. It's just hard to rely on any Dolphins pass-catcher week in and week out, as Adam Gase appears to be deploying them with game-specific strategies in mind.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
Miami has a respectable 24-point implied team total in this game. The issue is Kenny Stills is a boom-or-bust WR2 each week because he is not getting the type of target volume that leads to consistency. He has seen only five and three targets, respectively, the first two weeks. He made the most of them in Week 1, but he'll need splash plays to return on investment. If DeVante Parker is active, that could also cut into his snaps. So for Week 3, he's another high-risk player against a Raiders defense that has started top-15 in PPR points allowed to WRs.
Week 2 at New York Jets
Heading into last week, we told you Kenny Stills was the overall WR3 in the three weeks DeVante Parker was out last season. Guess what? Stills exploded again in Week 1. Now, he faces a Jets team that he torched a season ago for 6-85-2. However, DeVante Parker was a full participant in Thursday's practice (finger injury). That shouldn't stop the chemistry Stills continued from past seasons with Tannehill, though. We are confident Stills will be a WR2 in Week 2.
