Week 3 at New York Giants
Jerick McKinnon had a nice run toward the end of the game against the Jets last week, and wound up with 77 yards and a touchdown on just three carries. That’s not a lot of work to get excited about, but the team may be down both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman against the Giants this week. If that’s the case, McKinnon is worth considering as an RB3/Flex option in deep leagues, given the likely increase in workload.
McKinnon is considered a potential RB2 option this week. He should get more snaps both on the ground and in the passing game, and the Giants have allowed double-digit fantasy points to the likes of David Montgomery and Benny Snell in consecutive weeks. McKinnon might see Jeff Wilson cut into his production, but his upside is considerable and worth the risk. He’s a primary waiver addition and should be active in most leagues.
Week 2 at New York Jets
It was good to see Jerick McKinnon return to action after such a long bout with injuries, carrying the ball three times for 24 yards, and adding 20 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. McKinnon is still definitely a change-of-pace back, and is competing with Tevin Coleman for that work behind starter Raheem Mostert, limiting his upside in any given week. Don’t expect consistent touches for anyone outside of Mostert, and McKinnon should stay on the bench, or on waivers in most leagues.
Fantasy Upside
Last year's heralded free-agent pickup, Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL before the season opener, forcing the Niners to lean on a committee of Matt Breida, Alfred Morris, Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert. According to NBCSports.com, McKinnon would have been the centerpiece of the offense last season. Per NBC's Matt Maiocco, the 49ers planned to show off the plan in Week 1 of the regular season. McKinnon was signed as a free agent to replace Carlos Hyde as the team's primary back. The team made him the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL for a reason. McKinnon is equally threatening to opposing defenses as a runner and receiver. As Maiocco explained, "The combination of McKinnon, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle would force defenses to make some difficult decisions on how to cover the middle of the field, Shanahan determined. The 49ers would isolate linebackers weak in coverage and exploit that matchup. If teams went small with extra defensive backs, the 49ers could overpower them in the run game." Worth noting: During his two years in Atlanta and last year in San Francisco, Shanahan RBs have finished in the top eight in receptions and top five in receiving yards all three years.
Fantasy Downside
McKinnon's health and the addition of Tevin Coleman to an already crowded backfield (only Morris is gone from last year's group) are all concerns. But his role -- certainly early on -- will be determined by his recovery from the knee injury, something that will become clearer throughout August.
2019 Bottom Line
By all accounts, the rehab was difficult, but the fact that McKinnon and QB Jimmy Garoppolo went through it together was a bright spot for both of them and the pair fully expect to be on the field together when the season opens this September. When the 49ers' official off-season program kicked off in April, NBC reported that on the field, Garoppolo and McKinnon quickly demonstrated the chemistry which resulted from their time together during rehab and in the training room. So assuming he's on the field -- even in a timeshare with Coleman (and others), McKinnon could be in position to outperform his RB4 price tag.
Fantasy Upside
McKinnon just might have found the best possible situation of this year's free agent running backs by agreeing to terms with the San Francisco 49ers. And not just because the new deal makes him the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL (south of only LeVeon Bell, Devonta Freeman, and LeSean McCoy). McKinnon, who ran for 570 yards and caught 51 passes for 421 yards in Minnesota last season, is now likely to be the starter in San Francisco ahead of Matt Breida and Joe Williams. Whatever the case, McKinnon's deal is massive for a player who spent his four seasons with the Vikings as a rotational player. Better still, HC Kyle Shanahan's history of coaxing production from running backs bodes well for a do-it-all threat like McKinnon.
Fantasy Downside
The presence of Matt Breida and Joe Williams might be of some concern given that McKinnon has yet to prove he's capable of handling a workhorse role.
2018 Bottom Line
As NFL.com pointed out, Shanahan has helped running backs like Steve Slaton and Alfred Morris find success on the NFL scene. In addition, as ESPN.com noted, during his two years in Atlanta and last year in San Francisco, Shanahan RBs have finished in the top eight in receptions and in the top five in receiving yards all three years. Shanahan's track record coupled with McKinnon's big payday should ensure the kind of opportunities fantasy owners—especially those in PPR leagues—are looking for in a running back.
NFC Conference Championship at Philadelphia Eagles
Jerick McKinnon had a mediocre game last week, finishing with 40 total yards on 11 touches (three receptions). McKinnon has been a clear second-option for Minnesota since Dalvin Cook's injury, with Latavius Murray receiving 20+ touches in four straight games.
McKinnon has had a few big games this season, especially as a receiver, but he's not being used much as of late. He gets a brutal matchup against the Eagles this week, who allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs during the regular season.
McKinnon is one of the better backup running back options this week, but he's not a super strong choice.
Divisional Round vs. Saints
When Dalvin Cook went down, Jerick McKinnon immediately made an impact. His role as a rusher slowed down, though, as he primarily became the third-down back catching passes out of the backfield. But after a wild 7-catch performance in Week 15, McKinnon had just one total pass in the final two games of the season.
He averaged 8.8 carries per game in the final five weeks of the season and 3 catches in that span, for around 11 touches each week. He's going to need the ball more than that if he's going to make a huge impact against the Saints, and that's why he's more of a secondary option this week.
Although it is worth noting Christian McCaffrey, a fellow receiving back, did plenty of damage to the Saints last week, going over 100 yards receiving.
Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears
After going wild in Week 15, Jerick McKinnon was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards in Week 16. He did have 42 yards on 7 carries, but owners know McKinnon's real value comes as a receiver.
He may get to show off his skills this week against the Bears, who have shut down runners on the ground but have allowed an average of over 5 catches per game to backs this season. McKinnon had 6 receptions for 51 yards in his last outing vs. the Bears and could be a solid RB2 in PPR formats.
Week 16 at Green Bay Packers
Jerick McKinnon continues to do very little on the ground, but a lot through the air. The third-down back finished with 114 yards on 7 catches (8 targets), all team-highs for the game. While it's a strong performance, it is a bit worrying to see McKinnon finish under 10 carries for the third game in a row. He can only catch so many passes to remain relevant in fantasy.
This week he gets a favorable matchup against the Packers, a team he had one of his best games against earlier in the season. In Week 6, McKinnon finished with 99 total yards and 2 touchdowns against Green Bay.
He should be viewed as an RB3 or FLEX play in standard leagues and a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.
Week 15 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Jerick McKinnon finished as the Vikings' top rusher last week for the first time since Week 8. With Latavius Murray struggling, McKinnon finished with a solid 46 yards on 7 carries. Although he didn't have a strong receiving game, catching just 2 passes for 6 yards.
McKinnon should end up being a decent start this week in a favorable matchup against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing backs and has struggled against receiving backs like McKinnon. He should be a solid RB3 or FLEX play in standard leagues and a low-end RB2 in PPR formats.
Week 14 at Carolina Panthers
Jerick McKinnon had a decent game last week, finishing with 52 total yards and a touchdown. He had another strong PPR outing, catching 5 passes. He now has at least 5 receptions in five of his last eight games.
He gets a tough matchup this week against the Panthers, but Carolina is mostly stingy toward pure rushers. McKinnon is mostly used as a receiver, which means his role shouldn't be affected much. He's a decent RB2 in PPR formats and a FLEX play or RB3 in standard leagues.
