Week 1 vs. Detroit Lions
Jerick McKinnon is coming off of a season where he set career highs in receptions (56) and receiving yards (512). He also had nine receiving touchdowns last year, eight of which came in the final six games of the season. We'd be surprised if he kept up that touchdown production, but McKinnon should continue to be utilized as a receiving threat. The Chiefs' receiving options this year aren't strong outside of Travis Kelce, and McKinnon has proven to be reliable. The only bad news is he faces a Lions defense in Week 1 that was tough on receiving backs a season ago. Detroit gave up the second-fewest receptions and the second-fewest receiving yards to running backs in 2022. Plus, they didn't give up a receiving touchdown to the position all season. Still, given his past production, McKinnon should be viewed as a lower-end RB2 option in PPR formats and more of an RB3 in standard.
Fantasy Upside
Jerick McKinnon sort of came out of nowhere last season to become a valuable fantasy asset. He was OK to start the season, averaging 34.9 yards with one touchdown in the eight games where Clyde Edwards-Helaire played at least 10 snaps. But in the nine games after, McKinnon averaged 5.1 receptions per game with an average of 58.3 scrimmage yards and nine total touchdowns. From Week 9 on, he finished as the fantasy RB7. McKinnon should maintain a similar role heading into 2023. He could even see more targets given the Chiefs’ inexperience at the wide receiver position.
Fantasy Downside
McKinnon offers nearly no value as an actual runner, averaging just 17.1 rush yards per game with one score on the ground. He also scored nine of his 10 touchdowns on the season in the final six games of the season, a pace that will be nearly impossible to replicate in 2023. McKinnon’s uptick in production also came after CEH was injured. CEH is healthy now and could threaten some touches in the backfield. There is also some preseason hype for undrafted rookie running back Deneric Prince.
2023 Bottom Line
McKinnon should be viewed as a PPR-friendly back heading into 2023. The type of back who will more likely than not finish with less than 10 rushing yards each game, but routinely see at least five targets. His touchdown spree will likely settle way down, which is the reason he became such a hot commodity last season. But McKinnon should see enough production to be a low-end RB2 or a strong RB3 option in PPR leagues. He should be viewed around the RB30 range.
Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos
Jerick McKinnon had another good game last week, mostly because he was able to find the end zone for a fourth straight game. Outside of the score, McKinnon ran five times for seven yards and caught three passes for 31 yards (on three targets). McKinnon has really excelled in his last four games, averaging 88.5 scrimmage yards with six total scores. One of those games in that stretch came against the Broncos who McKinnon faces this week. In that game, McKinnon caught 7-of-9 targets for 112 yards and two touchdowns. It'd be ridiculous to expect that again, but it is nice to see that kind of production if you're considering playing him in Week 17. McKinnon should be viewed as a solid RB2 option (especially in PPR formats) this week.
Week 16 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Jerick McKinnon had a huge game last week. He ran a season-high 10 times for 52 yards and a touchdown, caught eight passes for 70 yards and a touchdown, and even added on a two point conversion for good measure. McKinnon has been highly productive lately, averaging over 100 scrimmage yards with five total touchdowns in his last three games. He has a chance to keep that production going in a favorable matchup this week against the Seahawks. Seattle has given up the second-most average fantasy points to running backs this season. Given the matchup and McKinnon's recent production, he's a borderline RB1 play in PPR formats. He's more of an RB2 option in standard scoring.
Week 15 at Houston Texans
Jerick McKinnon had a huge game last week, mostly as a receiving threat. He did have 22 yards on six carries, but he really did his damage with the nine targets he saw, finishing 7-112-2. McKinnon's been a tad inconsistent with is production, but he's mostly maintained a solid role as Kansas City's receiving threat at the running back position. In the six games since the Chiefs' Week 8 bye, McKinnon has averaged 4.2 receptions for 40.5 yards with an added 17.2 yards averaged on the ground. That makes him a solid RB3/flex option, which is the range he'll be in a favorable Week 15 matchup vs. the Texans.
Week 14 at Denver Broncos
Jerick McKinnon had one of his better games of the season last week. He tied a season-high in carries (8) and ran for 51 yards. He also caught two passes for nine yards and a touchdown. McKinnon's usage is still pretty unpredictable though, especially considering in Week 12 he had 0 carries. McKinnon is involved enough to make him an interesting flex option, but his usage makes him somewhat of a gamble. He'll be even more risky in Week 14 as he draws a tough matchup in the Broncos (7th aFPA). McKinnon should be viewed as an RB3/flex play.
Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals
Jerick McKinnon maintained his role as a receiving threat in Kansas City's offense after seeing six targets last week, finishing 3-26 with no carries. McKinnon's role as a receiving threat has really elevated in recent weeks with 23 targets in his last four games, and that includes one game where he had just one target. Despite the looks, McKinnon hasn't done much production-wise for Kansas City. He has a minimal role as a runner, hasn't scored since Week 2, and is only averaging 35.1 scrimmage yards per game. He's not much more than a desperation flex option in Week 13 vs. the Bengals (14th aFPA).
Week 12 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Jerick McKinnon had been heavily involved as a receiving back for Kansas City seeing 16 targets in Week 9 and 10, but last week he saw just one target. Overall, McKinnon finished with seven touches (six carries, one catch) for 25 yards. McKinnon will be in a similar spot again this week where we'd expect him to play mostly on passing downs. His targets will likely come from game flow, so he carries some risk. In Week 12 he'll face a Rams defense that's been tough on running backs, giving up the 7th-fewest receiving yards and 8th-fewest receptions to the position. McKinnon should be viewed as a low-end flex play in PPR formats.
Week 11 at Los Angeles Chargers
Jerick McKinnon has seen eight targets in back-to-back games as he's locked in a solid role as Kansas City's receiving back. The Chiefs don't have much interest in getting Isiah Pacheco involved as a receiver, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was barely on the field last week, which opened the door for McKinnon to finish with six receptions for 56 yards (he also had one carry for two yards). McKinnon should see a similar role as a reception-heavy threat against the Chargers. Los Angeles is about in the middle of the league when it comes to giving up receptions to running backs this season, so McKinnon will likely see around 4-5 receptions with a couple of carries. He has some low-end RB3 appeal in PPR formats this week.
Week 10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jerick McKinnon played a season-high 62% of the offensive snaps for the Chiefs last week, easily out-pacing both Clyde Edwards-Helaire (17%) and Isiah Pacheco (22%). McKinnon was also heavily involved a receiver, finishing 6-40 on eight targets. He also ran the ball three times for four yards. McKinnon saw more action than usual because the Chiefs aired the ball out 68 times as they struggled on the ground against Tennessee's tough run defense. The Jaguars are a much better matchup in Week 10, so we'd expect McKinnon to drop back down more in his 40% playing role like in previous weeks. McKinnon should be viewed as a very low-end RB3 option in Week 10.
