Week 4 at Cincinnati
Take away Jay Ajayi's 11-yard overtime touchdown last week, and he only had six carries for 17 yards. We're looking at a full-blown committee in Miami with Arian Foster out. Ajayi likely won't get the touches required to be dependable in an already difficult matchup against the Bengals in Week 4.
Week 3 vs. Cleveland
With Arian Foster likely out, it's unclear if Ajayi will be the featured back or part of a committee for the Dolphins. It's clear the coaches don't have a ton of confidence in him after making him inactive Week 1. Ajayi then fumbled last week after Foster went out. Head Coach Adam Gase said Wednesday he has confidence in all his backs, opening the door for a full running back by committee. Ajayi is more of a wait-and-see this week, unless you feel lucky enough to hope he falls into the end zone.
Week 1 at Seattle
Ajayi lost the starting job to Arian Foster to begin 2016. Combine that with a Week 1 trip to Seattle, and he is nothing more than a handcuff on your bench (or attrition stash) for the brittle Foster.
Fantasy Upside
Last season, 4for4 contributor Steve Andress asked multiple Colts defensive players which running back they faced was the toughest to tackle. Their answer was Ajayi, on a schedule that included C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Chris Ivory, Mark Ingram, and Jonathan Stewart. His 2016 fantasy upside is strictly a combination of potential and opportunity though after just 56 touches as a rookie and 3.8 ypc. Under Adam Gase though, running backs have flourished. Matt Forte finished as the #9 RB in standard leagues in just 13 games in 2015, and C.J. Anderson was the #11 RB in 2014, despite starting only seven of 15 games. If Ajayi is the lead back in this offense and beats out Arian Foster, his ceiling his high, especially in standard leagues.
Fantasy Downside
The signing of Arian Foster in Miami took a bite out of the offseason optimism for Ajayi. Reports are Foster will, at the least, be the passing down back in Miami, which really hurts the upside for Ajayi in PPR leagues. The Miami Herald reported shortly after the signing of Foster that both would get “plenty of carries”. It’s possible Foster could win the job outright too, crushing any upside Ajayi might have. This backfield is one drafters must keep an eye on in training camp and the preseason in order to draft this backfield properly.
Bottom Line
Ajayi’s ADP has dropped from the 5th round as far as the 7th round in MFL10’s after the Foster signing. That would present great value if Ajayi wins the starting job, but for now we rank Ajayi just ahead of Foster in standard leagues with a RBBC projection. In PPR leagues, we have Foster ranked ahead of Ajayi, with the game script likely to favor the passing down back more often in Miami. In either scenario, Ajayi is only a flex consideration until there’s more clarity in this backfield.
Week 17 vs. New England
Jay Ajayi could be the Dolphins' future, so the team wants to see what he's got. They gave him nine carries last week, including some goal-line work. In the end, he only finished with 23 yards. He's not enough of a factor to be considered in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
Jay Ajayi had more production than Lamar Miller last week, going for 42 yards and a touchdown. We don't expect him to do that every week, however. Ajayi probably set his season high for yards last week, and even then it wasn't that much. He's not really on the fantasy radar.
Week 15 vs. San Diego
Jay Ajayi isn't getting many touches, so it's hard to trust him in any fantasy format. He could have some success this week just because it's a favorable matchup, but you're taking a big risk playing him. He's really not worth it.
Week 14 vs. New York Giants
Jay Ajayi has made some big plays this season, but he's only getting about 3-4 touches a game and isn't worth fantasy consideration.
Jay Ajayi - Week 13 vs. Baltimore
Jay Ajayi made an impact through the air last week as he caught four balls for 52 yards. He also had three carries for six yards. He's starting to get a little more involved in Miami's offense, although he's still a risky player. He's a RB4 at best.
Week 12 at New York Jets
Jay Ajayi is getting touches in Miami, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration.
