Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins are a dumpster fire. This offense is only averaging 10 points per game, and now this week, the offensive line coach was forced to resign after a video surfaced of him snorting a white powdery substance in his office! However, Jay Ajayi is still getting volume. He's averaging 22 touches per game and coming off 27 touches but only for 79 total yards. So that kind of floor is safe, but the hopes of a high RB1 ceiling don't seem realistic right now, moving Ajayi closer to RB2 territory in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Tennessee Titans
It's Week 5, and the Dolphins will finally play their home opener. However, when you get shut out by the Saints defense (even if it is in London), it's one of the more shocking things we've seen in fantasy circles in recent years. Much of the talk in Miami this week has been about the putrid offensive line, which has impacted Jay Ajayi (2.7 yards-per-carry average his last two games). A lingering knee issue has also kept Ajayi under 70% of the snaps for two weeks, after playing more than 90% of the snaps in Week 2. Ajayi, for Week 5, is an RB2—not the elite RB1 option owners have been hoping for after his season debut.
Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (game in London)
The Saints have allowed the second-most PPR points to opposing fantasy RBs. Jay Ajayi should see a ton of work in a fantastic matchup. With a banged up knee, though, Ajayi went from playing 94% of snaps in Week 1 to less than 60% in Week 2. Consider Ajayi a top-12 RB still, but given what he's playing through, he may not reach Week 1 snap levels and top-5 RB status this week. The good news is he put in a full practice Thursday, with no doubts he'll play. Did we mention Ajayi was born in England too?! London narrative!
Week 3 at New York Jets
The Dolphins have a top-10 implied team total this week as they play the lowly Jets on the road. They are also 6-point favorites, which projects to a positive game script for Jay Ajayi. Until Thursday night's Todd Gurley onslaught, no running back in the NFL had more touches in a game than Jay Ajayi's 30 in Week 2. Ajayi (knee) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but is expected to play this week. Monitor his status, just in case. If active, he's a top-five RB in Week 3.
Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers
After an odd Week 1 bye due to a hurricane, Ajayi debuts on the road in Week 2. Head coach Adam Gase said this week Ajayi is dealing with knee soreness but that it's not a big deal. There's no big cause for concern; therefore, Ajayi is in line to be a top-12 RB on the road against the Chargers, as he should still catch some passes even if Miami falls behind. Don't forget C.J. Anderson just put up 88 total yards in a split backfield last week against this Chargers defense.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game has been postponed due to Hurricane Irma and will now be played Week 11. Make sure you do not have any Dolphins or Bucs in your Week 1 fantasy lineups.
Fantasy Upside
Jay Ajayi was the RB8 in PPR in total points and RB11 in PPR fantasy points per game once he received double-digit carries per game starting in Week 5. In standard leagues, Ajayi was slightly better from Week 5-17, finishing ninth in fantasy points per game. Plus this from Adam Gase in the offseason: "If I can get him between 22-25 [carries] that's ideal, and it's a good chance we're winning that ball game.” That would be an increase from Ajayi's 21.9 touches per game from Week 5 on, which means Ajayi should see heavy volume in 2017.
Fantasy Downside
It's hard to think of a running back that potentially has his week-to-week fantasy consistency more tied to one offensive lineman than Jay Ajayi, and that lineman is center Mike Pouncey. Ajayi played five games with Pouncey last year and averaged 20.7 PPR fantasy points per game. That ranked sixth among backs during that span. However, from Week 11-17 without Pouncey, Ajayi was only 18th among RBs with 12.8 fantasy points per game. The good news is Pouncey had successful stem cell treatments on his hip in the offseason and is on pace to start the season healthy.
2017 Bottom Line
If Ajayi was 18th among RBs in games without Pouncey but is scheduled to see an even heavier workload, that indicates Ajayi has a stable fantasy floor. Todd Gurley proved last season volume is king, despite terrible efficiency. However, the upside for Ajayi can't be denied, especially if Miami incorporates him more in the passing game, something he did well at Boise State. Overall, Miami just didn't run many plays last year (last in the league). If the third-down offense and defense can be better, that only means more opportunities for Ajayi. In the early second round, there are few RBw with more projected volume than Ajayi.
Wild Card Round at Pittsburgh
Ajayi broke onto the fantasy scene Week 6 against the Steelers with his first 200-yard game. He also added two touchdowns. He will be relied upon heavily again Wild Card Weekend with Matt Moore at quarterback. The Steelers are 15th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, and for those looking to beat those who will start Lamar Miller in DFS, Ajayi may be the way to go, as he's our 3rd ranked running back this weekend.
Week 17 vs. New England
Ajayi is coming off his 3rd 200-yard rushing game of the season against Buffalo. The Dolphins have already locked up a playoff spot, but they said they are playing to win Week 17 against the Patriots. The problem is they are still playing the Patriots. Also, it's easy to envision Adam Gase limiting Ajayi's work for the postseason. Normally a RB1, Ajayi drops down to mid-RB2 consideration this week.
Week 16 at Buffalo
Ajayi posted 214 yards and a score against the Bills Week 7. He should be in your lineups Week 16 for fantasy championships, but don't expect that kind of production again. Consider him more of a high-end RB2, considering Ajayi has failed to reach 3.0 YPC in three of his past four games, with a Dolphins OL struggling to run block over the past month.
