Week 17 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles have locked up home-field advantage in the postseason, and head coach Doug Pederson has indicated his offensive starters will not play the entire game Week 17. It's impossible to know how much Jay AJayi will play. Plus, Dallas is top-10 in aFPA vs. RBs. Ajayi can be considered a FLEX play this week but not much more, given the circumstances.
Week 16 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Eagles play Christmas night (Monday), and anybody with Eagles players must be aware that Doug Pederson has hinted this week of resting starters if/when the Eagles lock up home field advantage. If the Vikings lose Saturday (a long shot at Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers), the Eagles will have already done that. Otherwise, the Eagles currently have the third-highest team total in Vegas this week. Plus, Ajayi's snap counts have increased each of the last four weeks. Consider him a low-end RB2 this week.
Week 15 at New York Giants
The Eagles still have an implied team total in Vegas in the top half of teams this week despite starting back-up QB Nick Foles, and the loss of their starting QB could mean increased volume for the backfield. Ajayi led the Eagles in carries last week (15), the most he's had since being traded. The Giants are a plus matchup too, as they’ve allowed 4.44 yards per carry and 244 receiving yards to opposing running backs in the last four weeks. Consider Ajayi a viable FLEX option with the normal Eagles RBBC risk.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles-Rams game has the third-highest over/under in Vegas this week at 48 points. Here's how the backfield touches have broken down over the past three weeks: LeGarrette Blount-45, Jay Ajayi-34, Corey Clement-30. However, we saw a shift last week with Ajayi playing 41% of snaps and leading the Eagles backfield with 12 touches. Nevertheless, that's still not a lot of touches. This is a three-man RBBC and should be avoided in the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks
The Eagles have the fourth-highest implied team total of the week at 26.25 points; however, the backfield split since Jay AJayi joined the Eagles is killing all of their value, including Ajayi's. His touches the last three games: 8-8-6. Strip the big name away, and you'd never start a running back with so few touches. The matchup is also not a good one, as Seattle is top-five in aFPA versus RBs, and the Eagles could rely on Carson Wentz to attack a banged up Seahawks secondary. We can't recommend an Eagles RB this week.
Week 12 vs. Chicago Bears
Eagles RB touches since they traded for Jay Ajayi: LeGarrette Blount-22, Corey Clement-19, Ajayi-16. This appears to be a three-way RBBC. Jay Ajayi played a fewer share of snaps in his second game with the Eagles than he did his first game, but his efficiency has been through the roof. The Bears are also below average in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. Therefore, we are considering Ajayi a high-risk low-end RB2 in Week 12.
Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys
Reports out of Philadelphia are Jay Ajayi will be more involved in the offense this week as the Eagles head to Dallas for Sunday Night Football. Vegas has the Eagles with an implied team total of 26.25, fourth-highest for Week 11. The Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite, implying a positive game script for the ground game. We don't know what Ajayi's volume will be in his second game with a new team, but given the potency of the offense, we feel confident calling him an RB2 in Week 11.
Week 9 vs. Denver Broncos
Jay Ajayi has been traded to the Eagles. Congratulations, here's a matchup against the Broncos who are ranked first in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. The Eagles have come out and said LeGarrette Blount is still the starter. This feels like a move the Eagles made for the future with Blount already older than 30 and on a one-year deal. For the present, it's best to take a wait-and-see approach with Ajayi this week, given the situation and matchup. He could get more work after the bye, once he's had some time with the organization.
Week 8 at Baltimore Ravens
Last season, the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens, resulting in Jay Ajayi only receiving 18 touches, gaining 87 total yards. That should be his floor for this contest on Thursday night, as the Ravens this season are just 27th in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. Ajayi should see a heavier workload, and is entrenched as a top-10 RB given that workload. He's averaging more than 23 touches per game this season.
Week 7 vs. New York Jets
Jay Ajayi may not have center Mike Pouncey this week, which correlated with poor performance last season. Ajayi also struggled against the Jets earlier this season recording only 25 yards on 13 touches. However, his weekly volume, and the Jets being 29th in our aFPA vs. PPR RB rankings, keeps Ajayi in the RB1 conversation for Week 7. There is definite risk there, though.
