Week 2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Jarvis Landry will always be a better PPR option than standard league option, but there's more concern now that Jay Cutler will not feed him as much as Ryan Tannehill did, as Cutler has been more likely to throw downfield. Landry is a low-end WR2 option in PPR leagues but only a FLEX option in standard leagues. The Chargers are top-10 in our aFPA vs. PPR WRs. Landry had 6 receptions for 53 yards against the Chargers last year.
Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game has been postponed due to Hurricane Irma and will now be played Week 11. Make sure you do not have any Dolphins or Bucs in your Week 1 fantasy lineups.
Fantasy Upside
Jarvis Landry saw 34 fewer targets in 2016 with Adam Gase as head coach but better efficiency maintained his status as a WR2 in fantasy. That efficiency also made him one of the more consistent receivers week-to-week, with 12 double-digit scoring weeks in PPR. Overall, he was 15th among WRs with 14.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
Fantasy Downside
Landry continues to not be a big touchdown threat in fantasy, failing to reach more than five touchdowns in each of his first three seasons. His nine red zone targets led the team but were 104th in the NFL, indicating two things we've also heard from Dolphins coaches this offseason. They want to rely on the run game and they didn't run enough plays in 2017. In fact, they were last in the league in plays run. If Landry regresses to his 2015 efficiency, his WR2 status is in trouble. Miami has also indicated no contract extension is coming for Landry, meaning he's not a top priority.
2017 Bottom Line
It's hard to see much upside in Landry's 2017 ceiling. His mid-to-late round three ADP is fair, given his recent fantasy finishes, but doesn't account for the potential downside. A quick glance at 4for4's rankings unveils other options with later ADPs that are better or similar options to Landry.
Wild Card Round at Pittsburgh
Landry posted seven receptions for 91 yards Week 6 against the Steelers, and with Matt Moore at quarterback this time, there's little reason to believe Landry can't match that again. Landry has 18 targets the past two weeks, but 4for4's IDP expert Mike Woellert does have this warning: "William Gay has been solid from the slot and will draw Jarvis Landry in coverage. Gay has played roughly 75 percent of his snaps from the slot and has allowed just 0.18 points per route. Landry has been efficient, producing 0.43 points per route, but has a tough road matchup this week." For these reasons, consider Landry less likely to score a touchdown this week than other WR options.
Week 17 vs. New England
The Dolphins have already locked up a playoff spot, but they said they are playing to win Week 17 against the Patriots. The problem is they are still playing the Patriots. Landry is a borderline FLEX in standard leagues and mid-to-low WR2 in Week 17. He has averaged 7.5-94.75-0.0 against New England, but Matt Moore is still the quarterback.
Week 16 at Buffalo
Landry is coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances, even more impressive considering the first was in a downpour against Arizona and the latest with Matt Moore at quarterback. Landry has averaged seven receptions per game against Buffalo, including a 78-yard performance Week 7 against the Bills. Consider him, as usual, as low-end WR2 in standard and mid-WR2 in PPR.
Week 15 at New York Jets
As usual, Landry is a better PPR play than standard league play for Saturday night against the Jets. Also consider Matt Moore will be throwing the passes in Week 15, not Ryan Tannehill. Landry is a low-end WR2 in PPR and borderline FLEX in standard leagues. Also, Landry only caught three passes for 33 yards against the Jets earlier this season. If you have better options, you might want to consider them.
Week 14 vs. Arizona
Trailing the entire game last week at Baltimore, Landry benefited from the Dolphins having to abandon the run to the tune of 14 targets. But as Landry often does, he did not turn those into big yardage (11 receptions, 87 yards). As usual, Landry is a solid start in PPR leagues but needs a touchdown for a big day in standard leagues. Consider him a FLEX option in standard and WR2 with upside in PPR leagues.
Week 13 at Baltimore
DeVante Parker is not expected to play this week, meaning Landry should reemerge as a high-volume target for the Dolphins pass attack against the Ravens. Consider him a WR2 in PPR leagues for Week 13 and a borderline FLEX in standard, likely needing a touchdown there to be worth it in those leagues. Also, keep in mind the Ravens held Landry last season to just 2-5-0 on five targets.
Week 12 vs. San Francisco
DeVante Parker's emergence over the past two weeks has coincided with Landry's decline. Landry had averaged 10+ targets the first month of this season, but now, Landry has 5.5 targets over the past two weeks. A match-up against the 49ers still gives him FLEX appeal in standard and WR2 status in PPR, but his floor is lower with decreased targets.
