Week 7 vs. Broncos
We just got the late news that Jarvis Landry will be activated on IR and suit up for tonight's game. You have to think that he'll have close to a full workload if the Browns are allowing him to play, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. likely out for this game.
We can fire up Landry as a WR3 in this spot. While there is still risk that he doesn't play as much, that risk is mitigated by the upside for high volume given the Browns' injuries on offense.
Week 2 vs. Texans
Landry had a strong game against the Chiefs, catching all five of his targets for 71 yards and adding 13 rushing yards with a touchdown. He finished as the WR17 in half-PPR formats. Landry tied for the team lead with an 18.52% target share, while playing a vast majority of the snaps at 86.44%. He should once again carry the load with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined for another week.
Landry has a great matchup against a Texans defense that ranked 26th in aFPA to wide receivers last season. This defense gave up a 33-yard reception to Marvin Jones Jr. and a 41-yard catch to D.J. Chark, so Landry will have opportunities to make a splash play here. The risk here is that the Browns won't have to pass too much in this game, especially with how porous this Texans run defense is, but Landry's volume should be enough to help him provide upside WR3 value in this spot.
Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Jarvis Landry enters Week 1 as the safest wideout on the Browns, which puts him on the WR3 radar in a game that projects to be a high-scoring affair. Landry finished really strong last year, totaling 62 targets in his last seven games (including postseason). While OBJ is back, we could see Landry continue to function as the target hog in this offense. That bodes well in a game where the Browns will likely be forced to air it out to keep pace with the Chiefs.
The risk here is that Landry takes a backseat to Beckham and the Browns are successful with a run-heavy approach, resulting in low volume for Landry. Still, this seems like an unlikely scenario given that it’s OBJ”s return from a torn ACL. I would expect Landry to lead the Browns in targets in this game, along with plenty of opportunities for touchdowns. Landry posted a 24.59% red-zone target share last season.
Fantasy Upside
Jarvis Landry caught 72-of-101 targets for 840 yards (11.7 Y/R) and three touchdowns, finishing as WR40 in half-PPR points per game. Landry had finished as WR23 and WR27 in his previous two years with the Browns. This range looks like Landry’s upside as he enters his age-29 season. Playing in a run-heavy offense with several weapons, it’s going to be difficult for Landry to reach this level unless there is an injury to a marquee player on the Browns. For example, if OBJ were to miss time, a plausible scenario given his return from a torn ACL, Landry would immediately slot in as the team’s WR1 and see a bump in targets. We could also see the Browns increase their passing volume if Nick Chubb got injured, which would benefit Landry. We should note that he came into the 2020 season coming off offseason hip surgery, so there’s a chance that this suppressed his production.
Fantasy Downside
Landry is one of those players who can be considered a floor pick with a narrow range of outcomes. This isn’t a wide receiver who is going to ascend past the low-tier WR2 range in terms of fantasy production. At the same time, he’ll still play a significant role in the Browns’ offense, so there’s not as much risk with Landry falling off and becoming a WR4 who acts as a depth piece for your fantasy team. The worst-case scenario is that the Browns play extremely run-heavy and are only able to support one fantasy-relevant wide receiver, which would likely be OBJ.
2021 Bottom Line
Landry is a floor pick who can help add stability to your roster, especially if you targeted high-upside wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool with your earlier draft picks. Currently being drafted as WR46 (92.7 ADP), Landry is being selected at his floor, which makes him a solid value. But due to his lack of upside, it’s important to consider your roster construction before targeting him. If you already have wide receivers like Adam Thielen and JuJu Smith-Schuster, it’s not a good idea to go after Landry because you already have two floor picks with narrow ranges of outcomes. Landry looks like a player on the WR3/4 fringe heading into the 2021 season.
Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jarvis Landry missed Week 16 due to the Browns' COVID issues but should return for Week 17's divisional matchup with the Steelers. Pittsburgh has been a tough matchup for opposing passing games all season and ranks within the top ten most difficult matchups for opposing wide receivers in our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. That being said, Landry was seeing great volume before being placed on the COVID list by averaging nearly 10 targets per game during the past month. Even in the tough matchup, Landry projects for a healthy dose of targets on Sunday and is worthy of consideration in fantasy leagues and DFS against the Steelers.
Week 16 at New York Jets
Jarvis Landry is experiencing a late-season breakout, seeing 38 targets over his last four games and finishing as a WR2 or better three out of the last four weeks. Now Landry will travel to New York to take on the lowly Jets defense, one that struggles immensely against wideouts and starts a rookie named Javelin Guidry in the slot. Landry should have no trouble getting separation in Week 16, and the Jets' other deficiencies on defense should mean Baker Mayfield looks Landry's way early and often. Fire Landry up as a solid WR2 in Week 16.
Week 15 at New York Giants
Jarvis Landry has racked up 30 targets over his last three games. While last week's 6-52-0 line was disappointing given Landry's target volume, his usage has seen a big bump since Odell Beckham got hurt and the Browns finally started avoiding atrocious weather for their games. In Week 15, the Browns will travel to New York to take on the Giants, who boast a solid pass defense and James Bradberry at cornerback. Landry should avoid Bradberry for the most part due to his primary role being in the slot, but Baker Mayfield will likely see more pressure than he has the past two weeks in this one. Even with some matchup concerns, Landry's role in the passing game is too large to sit him in most leagues. Fire Landry up as an upside WR3 in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Jarvis Landry has seen a fantasy resurgence now that the poor weather in Cleveland has stopped affecting his matchups and Odell Beckham remains out injured. In two games fitting that criteria, Landry has attracted 21 targets, good for a 33% target share in Cleveland. He turned those targets into two quality fantasy performances and showed that he is a viable fantasy option as Baker Mayfield's top receiving option under normal circumstances. Landry will get a tough matchup this week when the Browns host the Ravens' tough defense, but his recent usage suggests he is worthy of starting, particularly in PPR leagues. Consider Landry a solid WR3 this weekend.
Week 13 at Tennessee Titans
Freed from the bad Cleveland weather, at last, Jarvis Landry had his best game of the season last week by posting an 8/143/1 line on 11 targets. It should be noted that Landry faced off with backup Jaguar cornerbacks in Week 12, so even a middling matchup against the Titans secondary will be more difficult sledding than last week. Even so, Landry is the primary receiver in the offense with Odell Beckham injured and his high-usage Week 12 is very promising for his fantasy prospects moving forward. Consider Landry a WR3 in PPR formats who is worthy of starting in most leagues.
Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jarvis Landry will be difficult to start in fantasy unless the Browns significantly increase their passing volume. He does not catch deep passes or even get targets downfield, so he relies heavily on racking up receptions to accrue fantasy points. Baker Mayfield is essentially a game manager this season, and has only completed 12 passes in three straight games. That level of passing volume spells doom for Landry's fantasy prospects. This week, the Browns are road favorites against a weak Jacksonville defense, which should mean plenty of rush attempts for Cleveland and the typical low passing numbers. Landry is best left on benches as an unexciting WR4.
