Week 6 at San Francisco
The forgotten man in this Rams offense came on strong last week as he caught all four of his targets for 90 yards. After dealing with injuries earlier this season, Everett has been taking more snaps on offense and his difference-making speed at the position makes him a matchup nightmare in this Rams offense. However, Everett is not just competing with starter Tyler Higbee with targets, but an exceptionally talented WR group as well. Everett is low-end TE2 this week, but he has a chance to overtake Higbee as the starter in the coming weeks.
Week 13 at Arizona Cardinals
Gerald Everett was listed as DNP (Did Not Participate) in the Rams' Wednesday walkthrough, which was essentially a projection since there was no contact. Everett is recovering from a knee injury suffered in Week 12, and he appears likely to miss the Rams' Week 13 game.
Week 12 vs Baltimore Ravens
Based on his recent performances, I expected Gerald Everett to receive enough target volume to finish as a top-12 TE in Week 11, so I was among those disappointed by his final stat line of 20 yards on a single reception from one target. The Rams elected to run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays, by far the run-heaviest approach of any team in Week 11. It resulted in a win, so who am I to judge it's real-life efficacy, but for fantasy receiving production purposes, it was sub-optimal. Everett remains a TE1 based on his target volume and overall usage.
Everett faces a Ravens defense this week that's allowing the 10th-fewest aFPA to tight ends, and has been more effective at slowing opposing wide receivers and tight ends than they have at limiting running backs. This projects as a matchup to avoid if possible, although the wasteland that is the tight end position may not leave you with many superior options (though if Jacob Hollister or Ryan Griffin are available, I would and am starting them over Everett). Everett is a cross-your-fingers start as a low-end TE1.
Week 11 vs Chicago Bears
Gerald Everett was one of the few Rams players on offense to put up valuable fantasy production in their Week 10 matchup with the Steelers. Everett saw 12 targets and converted them into eight receptions for 68 yards, good for a TE10 fantasy finish. Everett has the seventh-most targets among all tight ends, and his eight red-zone targets are second-most on the Rams behind Cooper Kupp.
If the Bears have a defensive weakness to target, it's definitely at tight end. Chicago's 15.1 aFPA to tight ends is higher than all but four teams, and Week 10 indicated that the Rams won't be shy about leaning on their tight end against a challenging defense. Everett's heavy target volume feels as though it's gone somewhat under-the-radar, but he's certainly startable as a TE1 this week, especially considering how shallow the pool of fantasy viable tight ends is.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Gerald Everett finished the first half of the 2019 season with Week 8's TE30 finish against the Bengals and a TE14 overall standing. Only five tight ends have more than Everett's eight red zone targets, and his 12.3% target rate overall is second only to Cooper Kupp among Rams receiving options. Everett's Week 8 dud appears to be more aberration than harbinger, coming against a Bengals defense that now owns the fifth-lowest aFPA to tight ends at 4.8.
Week 10 appears to be an opportunity for Everett to continue to climb the tight end rankings, as he's set to face a Steelers defense allowing 13.2 aFPA to the position is 0.5 PPR formats, seventh-most. Pittsburgh has been far more efficient at limiting running back production then they have against opposing receivers, which should lead Sean McVay to emphasize the passing portion of the run/pass ratio with his playcalling. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen ranks Everett as the TE8 for the week, making him a solid start for fantasy owners.
Week 8 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Gerald Everett's fantasy value has risen sharply over the past four weeks, and it's not a result of steadily rising snap volume. Everett's snap rates per week: 39%, 71%, 88%, 57%, 81%, 53%, 74%. What's been behind his ascension as been his target rate; per week, it's been: 3.3%, 10.0%, 3.4%, 14.3%, 19.0%, 17.9%, 17.9%. From Week 4 - 7, Everett's 34 targets lead all tight ends, and his 17.2% target rate is second only to Mark Andrews among all tight ends with at least 10 targets in that span.
Everett now faces a Bengals defense with an 8.5 aFPA to tight ends, seventh-fewest. It's a surprising stat given their overall defensive struggles as well as the fact that they've faced the Seahawks pre-Will-Dissly-injury, the 49ers and the Ravens. Even so, Everett's target volume is too large to ignore, and he's a sure start as a TE1 this week.
Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons
Gerald Everett finished Week 6 as the TE38, turning five targets into two receptions for nine total yards. This was an extremely disappointing fantasy output, especially coming on the heels of a seven-catch 136-yard performance the week prior. Everett's value is hard to pin down, with a fluctuating snap share that went from 88% in Week 3 to 57% in Week 4 to 81% in Week 5 to 53% in Week 6. It's probably bad process to read too much into the Rams' abysmal offensive performance against a superb 49ers defense in Week 6, and Everett does remain the fantasy TE13 overall. Whether this speaks to Everett's ascension or the weak state of the position in general, he's worth consideration for a TE1 start against a Falcons defense that has struggled against the pass and has allowed 12.4 aFPA to tight ends, 15th-most.
Week 6 vs San Francisco 49ers
Gerald Everett broke out in a big way in Week 5. Everett lined up for 81% of the Rams' offensive snaps and was targeted 11 times for a Week 5 target rate of 19.0%, his highest rate of the season. Everett caught seven balls for 136 yards, earning some spectacular yards after the catch via broken tackles. The Rams have used 12 Personnel (one running back and two tight ends) only 11% of the time through five weeks, the third-lowest percentage among all 32 teams, but used the grouping for 36% of their offensive plays in Week 5, sixth-most. The positive results against the Seahawks could result in an increase in tight end usage for Los Angeles.
Unfortunately for Everett, the 49ers have been even more successful at limiting opposing tight ends than they have wide receivers and running backs. They've allowed just 87 total yards on 11 total receptions to tight ends through four games, while their 8.8 aFPA allowed to the position is ninth-lowest. Everett is a risky start as your TE1 given the tough matchup and the fact that it remains unknown if the Rams offense will ease off of its heavy reliance on 11 personnel, but his upside is sizeable. Everett's five red-zone targets are certainly a point in his favor, and he's definitely worth a roster spot with starter potential in better matchups ahead.
Week 5 at Seattle Seahawks
Gerald Everett had just two red-zone targets in the first three games of 2019, and both came in Week 2. In Week 4, Everett got two more targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line, and this time converted one into a touchdown. Everett also turned three non-red-zone targets into 44 receiving yards and finished as the fantasy TE5 overall. Ironically, Everett saw his second-lowest percentage of Los Angeles' total snaps at 37%.
Everett's value in Week 4 was tied to extreme overall passing volume, as Goff threw 68 passes in the game. Tyler Higbee also returned after a one-week absence and was targeted seven times to Everett's eight. Seattle is a great matchup for tight ends, as they're allowing third most aFPA to the position, but that doesn't make Everett an easy start. The likelihood of far less overall passing volume coupled with target competition from Higbee gives Everett an extremely low floor. He's more of a large-field GPP option than a good bet as a Week 5 start in re-draft.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gerald Everett's snap share has increased in each of the first three weeks of 2019, but his target rate stands at just 5.8%. He's the fantasy TE37 overall, and he's only crossed 20 yards receiving once. He has gotten three targets in the red zone, and converted all three, but has yet to manage a receiving touchdown. Even as a dart-throw touchdown-dependent option, it would be a reach to recommend him as a start in any format.
