Week 10 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have a middle-of-the-road implied team total against the Jaguars this week, and Jacksonville ranks 9th in aFPA to TEs. T.Y. Hilton is expected to see shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey. This could funnel more targets to Colts TEs. Jack Doyle showed before the bye week that he's still a major part of this offense, significantly out-snapping and out-targeting Eric Ebron. With the state of the fantasy TE position, Ebron can still be considered a borderline starting option, with a better than most chance of finding the end zone.
Week 8 at Oakland Raiders
Jack Doyle (hip) could make his return to the Colts offense at the tight end position, which could eat into Ebron's weekly fantasy consistency. He did score in both games Doyle was active earlier this year but only saw 4.5 targets for 38.5 yards in that split, compared to 10 targets for 56 yards when Doyle has been inactive. The state of the TE position and this week's plus match-up should still keep Ebron among the leaders at the position though for Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Buffalo Bills
Jack Doyle has yet to return to practice. That means Ebron should continue to be started with confidence, especially as the Bills rank 15th in aFPA to TEs but first in aFPA to WRs. 70 or more yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game this season, Ebron has turned into an every week starter at the fantasy position as long as Doyle is out.
Week 6 at New York Jets
Andrew Luck will once again be playing with a depleted supporting cast of pass catchers in the Meadowlands Sunday. T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle still are not practicing, and now Eric Ebron is also not practicing with four different injuries. Keep an eye on his injury status Friday and leading up to Sunday if not ruled out early. If he's active, his target share is far too large for you to keep on your bench. He's been fantastic in the absence of Hilton and Doyle.
Week 5 at New England Patriots (TNF)
Andrew Luck and the Colts offense travel to Foxboro with their top pass-catcher, T.Y. Hilton, doubtful with a hamstring injury. They also likely will not have Jack Doyle again. That means Eric Ebron should continue to see a ton of targets, but the Colts have the fourth-lowest implied team total of 20.5 points this week, but Luck has to throw it to somebody. The Patriots have been average against tight ends, ranking 14th in aFPA to the position. You can confidently start Ebron on Thursday night.
Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
The Colts have a slightly above-average implied team total of 24.25 points, but that number has come down throughout the week with sharp action in Vegas on the Texans, despite the majority of bets being laid on the Colts. The sharps certainly feel there will be some negative game script for the Colts passing game. The Texans are ranked just 26th in aFPA to TEs, and with Jack Doyle week-to-week, Ebron should continue to see heavy targets. He saw 11 last week but dropped a touchdown to submarine his week, but the usage puts him in TE1 range with Doyle likely out for Week 4.
Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles rank 19th in PPR points allowed to TEs after letting O.J. Howard roast them last week. Eric Ebron has scored in each of his first two games as a Colt, and Jack Doyle missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. If he's out, Ebron is locked in as a TE1 this week. Otherwise, consider him a touchdown-or-bust streaming option again this week, as his playing time fluctuated significantly from Week 1 to Week 2.
Week 2 at Washington Redskins
Washington was top-five in aFPA to WRs last season but just 23rd in aFPA to TEs. This may be the matchup the Colts try to exploit in Week 2 with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The Colts have a low 21-point implied team total for Week 2 but are underdogs, which could mean more negative game script and high-volume passing. Ebron caught 4-of-5 targets in Week 1 with a touchdown, but each week he'll essentially be a touchdown-or-bust streaming option. How lucky do you feel?
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Andrew Luck makes his long-awaited return in a juicy fantasy matchup for Colts tight ends, as the Bengals were just 24th in aFPA to TEs last season. Vegas has set the over/under in this game at 48, the fifth-highest total of opening weekend. This could be a shootout. Jack Doyle posted 12 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown last year without Luck against the Bengals. Eric Ebron may take away some of those targets, as Luck targeted him five times in the first half of the third preseason game. Ebron is not a top-15 starting option at the position in our rankings this week, but he's definitely in consideration for those streaming the position.
Fantasy Upside
Andrew Luck loves targeting his tight ends. He threw 12 TDs to them in 2016, and 29 in his career. Ebron quietly had a solid fantasy campaign with the Lions last season, too, finishing as the TE11 in PPR when not including Week 17.
Fantasy Downside
The fantasy success of this entire offense is tied to the health of Andrew Luck. Plus, with a clear emphasis to protect the franchise when he's on the field, will Ebron not being a good blocker impact his snap count? Jack Doyle is the clear starter at tight end in this offense. How much Ebron plays remains to be seen.
2018 Bottom Line
Ebron is being selected after the 20th tight end in fantasy drafts. He's an interesting wild card, given his quarterback's penchant for targeting his tight ends in the red zone. It may be worth taking a flier on Ebron, if the Colts' new staff decide to use more 12 personnel (two tight ends), since this offense is lacking a reliable No. 2 WR, let alone a No. 3 WR.
