Week 1 at Los Angeles Chargers
Eric Ebron finally had a breakout season last year with 750 yards and 13 touchdowns on 66 receptions. He was targeted 110 times and was a key factor in the red zone all year. He’ll miss Andrew Luck, but should still be featured with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. While a regression in scoring seems inevitable after such lofty numbers in 2018, he still has value as a streaming option in most leagues.
This week, Ebron gets to open the season against a Chargers defense that was very good last year overall, but only average against the tight end position. Additionally, they’re already down one of their best players in Derwin James. It’s risky to count on Ebron with a new quarterback in what could be a tough matchup, but he has some upside in deep leagues for tight end-needy fantasy rosters.
Fantasy Upside
Eric Ebron had a fantastic season last year after coming over from the Lions. He was second on the team with 66 receptions on 110 targets, 750 yards and a staggering 13 touchdowns. Ebron was productive when he was the primary tight end, and was also productive when Jack Doyle was in the lineup, catching seven touchdowns in the five games where both he and Doyle were active. Quarterback Andrew Luck has always been good at using his tight ends and Ebron should continue to be productive in the Colts’ offense. Ebron is only 26 years old and has always flashed elite receiving ability.
Fantasy Downside
While Ebron was productive with Doyle in the lineup, if Doyle is healthy for 16 games, that multiple-tight end production may not be fully sustainable. Also, 13 touchdowns could be hard to repeat. Even Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham and Antonio Gates only reached or eclipsed that many touchdowns in a season once in their respective careers, and Ebron never scored more than five before last year. Some regression seems likely. The additions of Devin Funchess in free agency and Parris Campbell in the draft could also eat into his targets.
2019 Bottom Line
Ebron has some regression risk and some potential for lost targets, but he’s still likely to be a productive fantasy tight end. That being said, his sixth-round price tag is too rich, and fantasy owners should only add him if he slides more towards the eighth or ninth round territory in 12-team leagues. Guys like Trey Burton and Delanie Walker are available three-to-four rounds later and have just as much upside.
Week 19 at Kanas City Chiefs
Despite being five-point underdogs in Kansas City, Vegas expects a shootout between the Chiefs and the Colts. That has pushed the Colts implied team total in the divisional round up higher than 25 points. In the passing game, KC ranks just 31st in aFPA to TEs. Eric Ebron has a chance to put together a monster game. Only Travis Kelce is more attractive to us this week among tight ends.
Week 17 at Tennessee Titans
The Colts offensive starters, if healthy, will play a full 60 minutes in Week 17 in what has turned into a play-in game against the Titans. Indianapolis is a 3-point road favorite with an implied team total of 23.25 points. Tennessee is third in aFPA to TEs, and Eric Ebron is in the concussion protocol. If he cannot play, Mo Alie-Cox would become a streaming option. Otherwise, Ebron remains a high-end TE1 for Week 17.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
The Colts host the Giants as more than a touchdown favorite with a top five implied team total of 28.25 points in Week 16. New York ranks fifth in aFPA to TEs this season. Nevertheless, Eric Ebron is the second pass catcher in the Colts passing attack behind T.Y. Hilton. Unless you have one of the two elite TEs this season, Ebron starts again this week.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Indianapolis has an above average implied team total this week against a tough Dallas defense. That implied total is 25 points. However, the Cowboys rank top five in aFPA to RBs, foreshadowing a pass-heavy attack for the Colts. The Cowboys may rank top 10 in aFPA to WRs, but only 22nd in aFPA to TEs. Ebron should continue to see a ton of targets, especially near the red zone. Enjoy.
Week 14 at Houston Texans
The Colts have a very modest implied team total of 22.75 points this week, with negative game script expected on the road in Houston. The Texans rank 24th in aFPA to TEs. Eric Ebron is once again in a great spot to be heavily targeted, and with the TE position so thin in 2018, you will find few options you can start with more confidence than Ebron.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Remember when facing the Jaguars defense was a near death sentence for a player's fantasy prospects? That's not the case anymore. The Jags are tough against RBs (2nd in aFPA), but the Colts have an implied team total of 25.5 on the road. This should mean the Jags are a pass funnel offense this week, ranking 15th in aFPA to TEs, benefiting Eric Ebron. Jacksonville's offense also operates at a faster pace when Leonard Fournette is out, which should mean additional offensive plays for the Colts too. With Jack Doyle on IR, Ebron enters the tier just below the elite at the position for the rest of the season, with the potential to match the production of Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce with his touchdown production.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Colts come off another strong offensive performance against the Titans, and this week, Indianapolis has the highest implied team total on the Sunday slate, nearing 30 expected points. Miami ranks just 25th in aFPA to TEs this season as well. However, we finally saw the dangers of Eric Ebron's snap rate and target share last week in games when Jack Doyle is healthy. He's a touchdown-or-bust option, albeit with a quarterback that has thrown at least three touchdown passes in seven consecutive games.
Week 11 vs. Tennesee Titans
The Colts have a high implied team total of 25 at home against Tennessee, and maybe the best offensive line in the NFL right now, helping the Colts air attack by protecting Andrew Luck better than he's ever been protected. This week against a pass funnel Titans defense that ranks second in aFPA to RBs, tight ends Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle should do well, despite the Titans top ranking in aFPA to TEs. Target volume and red zone usage are what matter here at the thinnest of fantasy positions. Doyle is still playing far more snaps than Ebron, but Ebron's ability to find the end zone cannot be denied at this point. Consider both TE1s in Week 11.
