Week 4 vs. Cowboys
Drew Brees was held out of the Saints Week 3 loss to the Panthers with a shoulder injury, but is expected to return Sunday night when New Orleans hosts Dallas. He was limited in practice, but at least appears on track to play this week (although Brees owners are at a disadvantage with the kickoff set for 8:30PM ET). Our recommendation is to avoid Brees altogether. He currently ranks as our QB20 for Week 4, so if you don't have a backup, there should be a streaming option available (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blake Bortles might be options). Brees admitted his shoulder injury affected some of his throws in the Saints Week 2 loss to the Panthers. There's a chance the injury has improved significantly in two weeks, but we wouldn't trust playing him on Sunday versus fantasy's No. 5 defense vs. quarterbacks.
Week 3 at Carolina
Drew Brees completed 24-of-38 passes for 255 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Saints Week 2 loss to the Bucs. Following the game, Brees admitted to the media his shoulder injury affected some of his throws. Despite he and Sean Payton indicating he'll play on Sunday in Carolina, the shoulder remains a concern and Brees was limited in practice on Thursday. Even if he does play, how effective will he be against the Panthers and their 13th-ranked fantasy defense versus quarterbacks? Brees currently ranks as our QB20 for Week 3 and we strongly recommend looking for better options on your waiver wire. There's just too much up in the air for Sunday, and fantasy owners are better off waiting until Brees is healthy (or at least healthier) before starting him again. (UPDATE: Drew Brees has officially been ruled out for Week 3.)
Week 2 vs. Tampa Bay
Drew Brees completed 30-of-48 passes for 355 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Saints Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. Without Jimmy Graham, New Orleans was just one-of-four on visits to the red zone and it was apparent in the loss that Brees' young receiving corps will have its struggles. That said, he has a great matchup on Sunday against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed rookie Marcus Mariota to do whatever he wanted last week. Brees ranks as our top QB for Week 2 and should be in all lineups on Sunday.
Week 1 at Arizona
2015 will be an interesting year for Drew Brees. Gone are red zone option Jimmy Graham and vertical threat Kenny Stills, in is a group of largely unproven receivers. Brandin Cooks has a ton of upside, but Marques Colston is in the twilight of his career and Brandon Coleman is largely a mystery. The Saints are also shifting to a more balanced offense under Sean Payton, one that will rely on Mark Ingram and the running game. That said, Brees still has the ability to light up defenses and looked sharp in preseason. He currently ranks as our QB14 for Week 1 and will face an Arizona team that had fantasy's No. 11 pass defense last season. If guys like Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer and/or Eli Manning are available, they all have better matchups in Week 1 and could be started ahead of Brees. If not, his matchups will improve soon, starting with Tampa Bay next Sunday.
Fantasy Upside
At 36, Drew Brees suffered a decline last year while finishing as fantasy football's No. 6 quarterback. But he's also been one of fantasy's most consistent signal-callers over the last two seasons, averaging 20.6 points per game. Despite the Saints' decision to trade Jimmy Graham this offseason, Brees still has a few playmakers in second-year receiver Brandin Cooks and new addition C.J. Spiller who provides a weapon in the screen game (a staple of Payton's system). While he won't be asked to put the ball in the air as much as he has in years past, a dramatic drop-off in production is unlikely for a player that studies the game as much as Brees. The veteran signal-caller is still capable of posting top-5 quarterback numbers.
Fantasy Downside
From 2011 through 2013, Brees ranked as fantasy's No. 2, No. 8 and No. 11-rated player, respectively. In 2014, Brees slipped to fantasy's No. 39 overall player and the sixth-rated quarterback after ranking as a top-2 signal-caller since 2011. Gone is Brees' top red-zone threat in Graham, who often forced defenses to commit extra defenders to his area in order to bracket him in coverage. The Saints also traded one of Brees' top vertical threats in Kenny Stills, who was dealt to the Dolphins in exchange for linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and a third-round pick in 2015 (used to select FSU cornerback P.J. Williams). New Orleans has undergone a significant change in philosophy, shifting from an up-tempo, pass-happy approach to a more ball-control offense. That means fewer attempts for Brees, whose touchdown numbers have also declined every season since 2011. There's reason to believe that his days of being a top-10 fantasy player are over.
Bottom Line
Even if Brees isn't one of fantasy's most prolific players in 2015, it doesn't mean owners should shy away from him on draft night. In fact, his current ADP of 7.08 for 10-team leagues represents value given the presence of Payton, Cooks, Spiller, Mark Ingram and Marques Colston. In other words, just because the Saints have changed their offensive identity doesn't mean they'll suddenly forget where the end zone is located. Losing Graham undoubtedly hurts Brees' fantasy value and owners should adjust accordingly. But if his name has yet to be called in the seventh round or later, Brees will represent solid value for owners who have stocked up at other positions in previous rounds. He currently ranks as our No. 5 fantasy quarterback for 2015.
Week 17: Brees vs. Bucs
Drew Brees was 30-for-47 with one touchdown and two interceptions in the Saints' Week 16 loss to the Falcons. Brees also fumbled twice, losing one when Atlanta defensive end Osi Umenyiora returned the gift 86 yards for a touchdown in the closing seconds of the Falcons' victory. Turnovers plagued Brees on the day as the Saints were eliminated from the playoffs. But even with nothing to play for on Sunday, Brees is still a top 5 fantasy QB as it isn't in his character to mail in a game. Start him with confidence.
Week 16: Brees vs. Falcons
Drew Brees completed 29-of-36 passes for 375 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Saints’ Week 15 win over the Bears. Brees continued his strong road play this season, taking advantage of a talent-starved Chicago defense with a brutal secondary. He’ll face an Atlanta defense this Sunday that has zero pass rush and a banged up defensive backfield. Despite his issues at home this year, Brees remains a top 5 fantasy QB in 2014. He’s our No. 3 QB for Week 16.
Week 15: Brees vs. Bears
Drew Brees completed 29-of-49 passes for 235 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Saints’ brutal Week 14 loss to the Panthers. Brees was under constant duress as New Orleans’ offense never got going. Even when the Saints fell behind big, Brees couldn’t manage much garbage time production for owners in their fantasy playoffs. He has a tremendous matchup versus the Bears on Monday night and he remains a must-start in all formats. But this clearly isn’t the same Saints offense that we’ve been accustomed to watching under Sean Payton so Brees' production may fluctuate to the bitter end. He ranks as our No. 4 overall QB for Week 15.
Week 14: Brees vs. Panthers
In a vintage performance, Drew Brees completed 19-of-27 passes for 257 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in the Saints’ win over the Steelers last week. Even without targeting Jimmy Graham, Brees was able to carve up a banged up Pittsburgh defense following three-straight home losses. In his past two games Brees has compiled eight touchdowns, 677 yards and only one interception and has a great matchup versus a brutal Carolina defensive backfield on Sunday. He’s our No. 2 overall QB for Week 14 and is a must start.
Week 13: Brees vs. Steelers
Drew Brees completed 35-of-45 passes for 420 yards with three touchdowns and one interception in the Saints' Week 12 loss to the Ravens on Monday night. It was a great fantasy night for Brees, although he threw a pick-six to Will Hill midway through the third quarter that helped doom the Saints. Based on our schedule-adjusted, positional defensive ranking chart, Brees has a nice matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 25th overall versus fantasy QBs. Brees himself ranks as our No. 7 overall QB for Week 13 and should be in your lineup despite the fact that New Orleans tends to struggle offensively on the road.
