Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After advancing to the Divisional round of the playoffs last season on the strength of their running back and defense, the Saints will likely feature their ground game again this year. That doesn’t mean Drew Brees won’t improve upon his QB9 finish from a year ago. He arguably has better weapons in the passing game with the addition of Cameron Meredith and subtraction of Coby Fleener. In fact, he should put up good numbers against a Bucs team this Sunday that will likely struggle defensively again this season. Brees is our No. 4 ranked QB for Week 1 and should be in your lineup.
Fantasy Upside
Fantasy owners were undoubtedly disappointed in Drew Brees' 2017 production. He attempted just 536 passes and tossed only 23 touchdowns, both were the lowest totals of his career as a Saint. That said, while his production was disappointing for fantasy owners, there were no signs of decline from a real football perspective. He completed 72 percent of his passes, which set the NFL record, and his 8.1 yards per pass attempt was his best mark since 2011 (that too ranked first in the league). Despite ranking ninth overall in attempts, Brees still led the NFL in completions with 386. Thus, it's not as if we're watching a once-great quarterback fall apart.
New Orleans' run-game production was excellent and so was the defense, the latter of which has been a rarity since Brees arrived. Thus, he simply didn't have to do as much to win games. But with Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas back, plus the addition of Cameron Meredith (and thus, the ability to convert more out of three-plus wide receiver sets), Brees should post numbers more similar to 2016 than 2017.
Fantasy Downside
We all saw the downside a year ago when Brees attempted the fewest passes of his Saint career. He threw for just 23 touchdowns and finished as fantasy's QB11, which was his lowest ranking since his third season in the NFL. We've become accustomed to Brees having to throw for big yardage and high touchdown numbers to out-pace his defense. If the Saints defense is as good in 2018 as it was in 2017, then Sean Payton can save the wear and tear on Brees' shoulder and continue to use him more as a game manager as opposed to a fantasy monster.
One more reason to be down on Brees: The Saints will face a first-place schedule in 2018 after winning the NFC South last year. On top of playing against the likes of Carolina and Atlanta twice inside the division, the Saints will also play the Vikings, Rams, and Eagles this year, not to mention the Steelers and the Ravens with the NFC South playing the AFC North this season.
2018 Bottom Line
One thing to keep in mind about Brees' down fantasy year in 2017 is that his offensive line was incredibly banged-up throughout the season and his surrounding weapons weren't as good as in previous years. Brandin Cooks was traded before the season, Willie Snead was suspended three games and never got his footing once he returned, and Coby Fleener was injured in training camp and then was incredibly inefficient throughout the season. Thomas and Kamara are studs and with the addition of Meredith (the Bears' most successful wide receiver two years ago), Brees will have a better complement of weapons this year than he had in 2017. All of this is to say that with an ADP of 10.04 in 10-team leagues, Brees feels undervalued heading into 2018.
Divisional Round at Minnesota Vikings
Drew Brees completed 23-of-33 passes for 376 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in the Saints' victory over the Panthers in the Wild Card round. It was vintage Brees, who carved up Carolina's secondary after the Panthers dared him to beat them by shutting down his running game. His best throws came on the Saints' final offensive possession when he threw a perfect back-shoulder pass to Michael Thomas on a key third down to extend New Orleans' drive. Brees was intercepted on a subsequent fourth-down pass but the Saints held on for the win when their defense sacked Cam Newton on the Panthers' final offensive play.
New Orleans will travel to Minnesota this Sunday to take on the Vikings in a rematch of a Week 1 regular season game. Despite his brilliant performance last week, we advise avoiding Brees in the Divisional Round. The Vikings rank first against fantasy quarterbacks this season so, from a statistical standpoint, he has the worst matchup of any of the eight quarterbacks playing this weekend. Tom Brady, Case Keenum, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and even Marcus Mariota are better DFS plays.
Wild Card Round vs. Carolina Panthers
Drew Brees completed 22-of-30 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 17 loss to the Bucs. He played well, averaging over eight yards per attempt and avoiding turnovers. Brees had a solid season but this was the first time since 2003 he didn't finish as one of fantasy's top 10 quarterbacks (he was 11th). The Saints offense now runs through Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and the running game, although Brees remains capable of winning games with his arm. Ranked as our No. 3 QB for Wild Card weekend, only Cam Newton and Alex Smith are better fantasy options for this round.
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Drew Brees completed 21-of-28 passes for 239 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception in the Saints’ Week 16 win over the Falcons. Brees was quiet until finding Ted Ginn for a 54-yard touchdown right before halftime. His interception came on a tipped pass that landed right in the waiting arms of linebacker Deion Jones. Otherwise, Brees was neither spectacular or poor.
The Saints need to beat the Bucs to win the NFC South Division so Brees will play on Sunday. Tampa Bay owns the No. 13 ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks so Brees has a decent matchup. Ranked as our No. 2 QB for Week 17, Brees is a legitimate QB1. Get him in your lineup.
Week 16 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Drew Brees completed 26-of-36 passes for 285 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in the Saints' Week 15 win over the Jets. Brees and the Saints came out firing, building a 10-0 lead until a Leonard Williams interception halted their momentum. Brees nearly had a third touchdown on the day in the second half but Michael Thomas was ruled to be out-of-bounds in the back of the end zone. Brees has not thrown for 3 touchdowns in a game since Week 3.
Even though he hasn't necessarily lit up the league this season, Brees remains a viable fantasy starter. He and the Saints will host a Falcons team this Sunday ranked 20th against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our No. 4 QB for Week 16, Brees should be in your lineup this weekend.
Week 15 vs. New York Jets
Drew Brees completed 26-of-35 passes for 271 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception in the Saints' Week 14 loss to the Falcons. The interception was a back-breaker, as Brees was intercepted by linebacker Deion Jones in the end zone in the closing minutes and the Falcons up by a field goal. His final stat line was fine, but Brees didn't take many shots downfield. Without Alvin Kamara, who was knocked out of the game with a concussion on the first drive of the game, the Saints lacked the explosiveness that has been on display the past two months. Brees was fine but far from spectacular.
This Sunday, the Saints host a Jets team ranked dead last against fantasy quarterbacks, so Brees is an excellent start. Ranked as our No. 4 QB, make sure you get Brees in your starting lineup for Week 15.
Week 14 at Atlanta Falcons
Drew Brees completed 25-of-34 passes for 269 yards and 1 touchdown in the Saints' 31-21 victory over the Panthers in Week 13. It was the second straight game in which Brees threw for only one touchdown. The Saints are now a run-first, ball-control team no longer relying on Brees to throw for over 300 yards every game to win. That has curtailed a lot of his fantasy success, although he has a nice matchup on Thursday night when the Saints visit the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 12th against fantasy quarterbacks but Brees knows the Falcons like the back of his hand. Ranked as our No. 5 QB for this week, make sure Brees is in your lineup unless you also have Tom Brady, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, or Philip Rivers (the QBs ranked ahead of Brees).
Week 13 vs. Carolina Panthers
Drew Brees completed 22-of-32 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' loss to the Rams in Week 12. Brees was fortunate to escape the game without throwing an interception because the Rams defenders had their hands on the ball multiple times in the second half. Nevertheless, Brees nearly led the Saints to another fourth-quarter comeback but his efforts fell just short.
Brees remains a trustworthy fantasy option but he's no longer lighting up opponents now that the Saints are more run-dependent offensively. New Orleans hosts Carolina on Sunday, and while the Panthers have an excellent defense, they rank 14th against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our No. 7 QB, Brees will be a QB1 again this weekend.
Week 12 at Los Angeles Rams
Drew Brees completed 29-of-41 passes for 385 yards, with 2 touchdowns and an interception in the Saints' 34-31 win over Washington in overtime last week. It was vintage Brees, as he was forced to bring New Orleans down from multiple scores late in the fourth quarter. For anyone wondering whether or not the Saints could still chuck the ball around the yard if need be, Brees answered that question with both of his touchdowns coming in the final 2:53 of regulation.
The Saints will travel to L.A. to take on the Rams in Week 12. Even though he's coming off a big performance, this is a tough matchup for Brees, as he faces the No. 2 ranked fantasy defense against quarterbacks. Ranked as our No. 10 QB, Brees is a low-end QB1 for Sunday.
