Week 10 vs. Falcons
Drew Brees returned earlier than expected in Week 8 and picked up right where he left off with 373 yards and a touchdown in a thrashing of the Cardinals. Coming off his bye week, Brees faces a reeling Falcons team that is just hurting on defense and being surrounded by questions (deservedly) about the future of head coach Dan Quinn. Breese should breeze through this week with likely another 300-yard game and a touchdown pass or two (or three).
Week 2 at Rams
Early on, does it look like the Saints are going back to letting Drew Brees sling the football? Brees threw the ball 43 times in Week 1 against the Texans, completing 32 passes for 370 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. And Brees will likely see plenty of opportunities again on Sunday in what is probably the most-anticipated game of the season against the Los Angeles Rams. He threw 36 times in the regular-season matchup in 2018 and 40 times in the NFC Championship Game, averaging about 290 yards and three touchdowns in those two games. You know emotions will be running high in this one and points could be aplenty, so Brees will post another fine start Sunday.
Week 1 vs Texans
Drew Brees is coming off a 2018 season in which he threw for under 4,000 yards for the first time as a Saint, though he only missed the mark by eight yards. The last time Brees missed the 4,000-yard mark was in 2005, his final year in San Diego. He also attempted less than 500 passes for the first time since 2004. That's led to Brees being available late in your drafts. But if you did land him, you're still firing him up, especially here in Week 1.
Brees opens his 19th NFL season (14th in New Orleans) at home on Monday night against the reigning AFC South champion Houston Texans. And he gets a reprieve, at least for two weeks, from facing DE Jadeveon Clowney (New Orleans sees Seattle in Week 3). That means he faces a Texans' front that is not as formidable as in previous seasons, but J.J. Watt is always a force when he is on the field. The Texans were in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. And they've undergone some changes, namely trading Clowney and essentially replacing Kareem Jackson with Bradley Roby at cornerback. And Houston allowed the fifth-most passing yards in 2018.
Brees is our No. 3 quarterback this week in what should be a high-scoring affair, with an over/under of 52.5. Brees may be slowing down hitting age 40, but he can still sling the football and should find the end zone a few times Monday night. Start him with confidence, as usual.
Fantasy Upside
It's Drew Brees. End of story. Ok, we'll talk about him. Brees posted yet another top-eight fantasy scoring season in 2018, despite not throwing for 4,000 yards, though he was only eight yards shy of 4,000. And that's with him not playing in Week 17 since the Saints had already locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Brees also posted an outstanding 32-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, one of the best we've ever seen in history. Brees also posted six games of at least 300 passing yards, including 439 yards in the Week 1 shootout against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And if you're looking for touchdowns, Brees is more likely than not to throw multiple touchdowns in a game, as he accomplished that feat nine times in 2018, reaching three touchdown passes three times and posting three games with four touchdown passes. The offense is intact from 2018 with the addition of tight end Jared Cook. As long as Brees has Sean Payton, the offense will always have high expectations, and Brees will likely hit 4,000 yards yet again.
Fantasy Downside
Brees has hit the magical age of 40, the age where quarterbacks start to tail off unless your name is Tom Brady. Brees is entering a contract year and the Saints are at least thinking about the possibility of turning the offense over to Teddy Bridgewater in 2020. It's also more than likely that Brees' TD-to-INT ratio regresses, simply because of how high it was. That's a tough number to repeat, especially at 40 years old. Also, as John Paulsen notes, the Saints' offense has become more run-focused behind Alvin Kamara. Paulsen writes "from 2006 to 2016, the Saints averaged 641.5 pass attempts per season. Over the last two seasons, they have averaged 527.5 pass attempts."
Bottom Line
Brees' days as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback are over with his age and possible looming retirement and more attention to the rushing attack. You can also thank the likes of Patrick Mahomes, DeShaun Watson and Andrew Luck, to name a few for Brees falling down the fantasy echelon. But until we see Brees fall off the face of the earth, which seems far away, Brees is almost assured of another top-ten fantasy finish.
Week 19 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Drew Brees sat out of the Saints’ Week 17 loss to the Panthers so the MVP candidate finished the regular season with 3,992 passing yards on 364 of 489 attempts with 32 touchdowns and five interceptions. He struggled over a four-game stretch versus Atlanta, Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina, but finished his season 27-of-39 for 326 yards with one touchdown and no picks against Pittsburgh in Week 16. There’s no question Brees and Sean Payton’s offenses are different at home compared to on the road, so the quarterback’s struggles could have had a lot to do with that three-game road stint from the end of November until mid-December. On Sunday, the Saints will host an Eagles team that Brees torched for 346 yards and four touchdowns in an early November home game. That said, Philadelphia has improved defensively since that 48-7 thrashing that the Saints gave them back in New Orleans. Nevertheless, with the Saints playing on their home turf this weekend, Brees is an excellent DFS play. He is our QB2 for the Divisional Round and is projected to score 21.4 fantasy points, just a couple shy of Patrick Mahomes’ projection of 23.3 versus the Colts.
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
Drew Brees completed 27-of-39 passes for 326 yards and one touchdown in the Saints’ Week 16 win over the Steelers. It wasn’t vintage Brees on Sunday but he did play significantly better than he had the previous three weeks when New Orleans was on the road. He came big in the clutch, engineering a scoring drive in the closing minutes when a botched fake punt attempt blew up in Pittsburgh’s faces around midfield. With the Saints now secured of the No. 1 spot in the NFC, Sean Payton could choose to rest starters on Sunday. For now, Brees ranks as our QB12 for Week 17 when the Saints host the Panthers but he’s not a safe bet to play. We’d recommend avoiding most New Orleans players this weekend in fantasy.
Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Drew Brees completed 23-of-35 passes for 203 yards and an interception in the Saints’ Week 15 win over the Panthers. Despite the betting total sitting in the low-50s, the game turned into a defensive struggle, won by the Saints, 12-9. New Orleans escaped with a victory but Brees struggled for a third consecutive week. Over that span, he’s averaging just 177 yards passing with a 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Part of the problem is his offensive line, which is banged-up. The Saints run a pure progression offense and Brees is one of the best in the league in terms of seeing the field quickly and moving defenders out of throwing lanes. That’s also key to his game as his arm strength has been diminished for years. The other issue? The Saints played on the road the last three weeks. With Brees and Co. returning to the Superdome on Sunday to take on the Steelers, New Orleans’ passing game should rebound. Ranked as our QB2 for Week 16, start Brees with confidence this week.
Week 15 at Carolina Panthers
Drew Brees completed 24-of-31 passes for 201 yards with one touchdown and one interception in the Saints’ Week 14 win over the Bucs. The interception was befuddlingly, as Brees threw it right to a Tampa defender as New Orleans tried to set up a screen pass. After throwing for four touchdowns against the Falcons on Thanksgiving night, Brees has now struggled in back-to-back games. It wasn’t until Taysom Hill blocked a punt that the sleepy Saints started to role against a bad Bucs defense. Still, Brees will be a QB1 on Monday night when the Saints visit a Panthers defense that ranks No. 25 against fantasy quarterbacks. Brees is our QB4 for Week 15.
Week 14 at Tampa Bay Bucs
Drew Brees completed 18-of-28 passes for 127 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the Saints’ 13-10 loss to the Cowboys. Brees only had 39 yards at halftime and the entire New Orleans offense struggled to move the ball against a Dallas defense that has the athletic linebackers to give most offenses issues. Of course, not every team has those types of defenders, including the Bucs, who will host the Saints on Sunday. Expect a major bounce-back from Brees, who is our No. 1 rated QB for Week 14.
Week 13 at Dallas Cowboys
Drew Brees completed 15-of-22 passes for 171 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in the Saints’ Week 12 win over the Falcons. Believe it or not, the yardage wasn’t a season-low for Brees, who had 120 passing yards versus the Vikings in Week 8. That said, the four touchdowns more than made up for the lack of yardage as Brees spread the ball around to multiple different receivers throughout the night. The Saints will continue their march to the Super Bowl on Thursday night when they visit the Cowboys, who rank No. 14 against fantasy quarterbacks this season. Ranked as our QB6 for Week 13, Brees will once again be a QB1 as he zeros in on this year’s MVP award.
