Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 29.5 points, and the Bills defense is a run funnel, ranking sixth in aFPA versus WRs but dead last in aFPA versus RBs. Danny Amendola's targets each week are far too chaotic to consider starting him in Week 16, coupled with the aFPA information on this defense. Pass.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss in Miami last week, the Patriots are still favored in Pittsburgh with the second-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 28.25 points. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have also allowed the eighth-most yards to receivers. And during that span, they are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wideouts (6). However, with Rob Gronkowski coming off suspension, Danny Amendola is not a viable starting option this week.
Week 13 at Buffalo Bills
In a week with relatively low over/unders across the board in Vegas, the Patriots and Bills have the highest at 48.5 points with the Patriots having the second-highest implied team total at 28.5 points. That's a good sign for Patriots receivers. However, Danny Amendola has been too inconsistent. You can't start him this week. Outside of his 9-target game in Week 11, he hasn't been targeted more than 6 times in a game since Week 6.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots targets over their past two games with Chris Hogan out (which appears will be the case again this week): Brandin Cook-20, Danny Amendola-13, Rob Gronkowski-10, Rex Burkhead-9, Martellus Bennett-6. The Patriots have the highest implied team total in Vegas of 32 points this week against the Dolphins. That makes Amendola a high-upside, albeit risky FLEX option for Week 12. He's been inconsistent week-to-week this season.
Week 11 vs. Oakland Raiders (game in Mexico City)
Atrapa la fiebre de la fantasía. That translates to "Catch the fantasy fever", as the Patriots and Raiders square off in Mexico. Chris Hogan is doubtful again this week, meaning Amendola should again see an uptick in targets. However, he only has 10 targets in his past two games and is a very high-risk option, despite a good matchup against Oakland (23rd in aFPA vs. WRs).
Week 10 at Denver Broncos
With Chris Hogan likely out, Danny Amendola's targets should see an increase. It's not a great matchup, as Denver is third in our aFPA vs. WR rankings, but given the efficiency of the Patriots, Amendola is a viable FLEX option in Week 10, as the Patriots have the fourth-highest implied team total of the weekend.
Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The matchup is a good one for Danny Amendola, as the Chargers are ranked 20th in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. They are also just 20th overall in PPR points allowed to WRs. Start Amendola with confidence in the second-highest over/under of Week 8 between the Chargers and Patriots. Consider him no less than a FLEX this week, with upside from there, given his almost 5 receptions per game and touchdown potential in this offense.
Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas this week, possibly foreshadowing a shootout. The Falcons are about league average in our aFPA vs. WR rankings and a respectable 11th in overall PPR points allowed to the position. For those reasons, Amendola is a risky WR3 this week, as he already has four teammates to vie with for targets.
Week 6 at New York Jets
Danny Amendola has posted 15+ PPR points in three out of four games he's played in this season. He also has had 7+ targets in three of those four games. Against the Jets? He's a great FLEX option with upside from there, as he also has 2 red zone targets in back-to-back games.
Week 5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Danny Amendola is averaging 13.3 PPR points per week this season, putting him on the FLEX radar for Week 5. The Bucs are a great matchup too, ranked just 31st in our aFPA vs. PPR WRs. Despite it being a Thursday Night game, the Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas for Week 5 at 30.75 points. Amendola has also received at least one red zone target in each of his three games this season.
