Week 13 at Arizona Cardinals
Cooper Kupp's fantasy output before his Week 9 bye contrasts starkly with his performance in the three games since. Kupp was the fantasy WR5 from Weeks 1-8, but he's been the fantasy WR65 from Week 10 through Week 12.
The Rams finally emerge from facing a stretch of extremely strong passing defenses to face a Cardinals defense in Week 13 that ranks 26th in aFPA to wide receivers, making this a good opportunity for Kupp to return to his pre-bye domination. The Rams' struggles against a tough schedule have almost certainly made fantasy owners hesitant to rely on any of their offensive skill players, but for this week at least, Cooper Kupp should return WR1 numbers.
Week 12 vs Baltimore Ravens
From Week 1 through Week 8, Cooper Kupp was fantasy's WR2 overall in 0.5 PPR scoring formats. Kupp has been the WR72 over the past two games since the Rams' Week 9 bye, in no small part due to a particularly difficult stretch of opposing defenses faced by the Rams. Kupp remains the WR7 overall, which is the same rank as his 2.37 yards per route run, one of the most predictive metrics for wide receiver production.
While the Ravens defense is currently performing as one of the best overall in the NFL, they haven't shut down wide receiver fantasy production. Their 33.9 aFPA to wide receivers is the 16th-most, and they're averaging 23.5 targets per game to opposing wide receiver groups, fourth-most. Opposing teams have passed at a higher rate against Baltimore than their average rate for the season, at least partially due to the need to keep pace with Baltimore's scoring. If Baltimore can continue is offensive dominance, Kupp should see enough target volume as a result to return WR1 numbers.
Week 11 vs Chicago Bears
Going into the Rams' Week 9 bye, Cooper Kupp was the WR2 overall in 0.5 PPR leagues. Cooper Kupp scoring zero fantasy points against the Steelers was perhaps the most surprising development of Week 10. Kupp saw a 92% snap share, so credit the Steelers defense for covering him so effectively. Kupp saw a season-low four targets and was unable to secure any of them for a catch. Kupp ranks as the WR6 through Week 10, which speaks to his season-long dominance.
The Chicago Bears have an aFPA to wide receivers of just 30.7, the eighth-lowest figure, but Kupp will often draw Chicago's most forgiving cornerback matchup against Buster Skrine in the slot. This remains an uphill battle for fantasy dominance, but it would be a mistake to put too much weight on Kupp's Week 10 shocker. Start him as a WR1 as you normally would, but with slightly tempered expectations given the opponent.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cooper Kupp was fortunate to have a bye in Week 10 because the human body cannot remain on fire for very long before lasting damage is done. Kupp turned a Week 8 matchup with the Bengals into a 10-megaton explosion for 220 yards on seven receptions with a touchdown thrown in. He was the WR2 for the week, and only the zero points he earned during his Week 9 bye caused him to move down from the WR2 overall to the WR5. Kupp's 17.7% target rate continues to lead all starting wide receivers and his 0.34 PPR points per snap is the fourth-highest figure.
Kupp has surpassed even the highest preseason expectations so far in 2019, and two of his three total disappointing fantasy weeks came against Panthers and 49ers, two defenses that rank among the top five in aFPA to quarterbacks. Pittsburgh ranks 20th in that metric, so this is not a week to expect a subdued performance from Kupp. Fire him up as a WR1 against the Steelers.
Week 8 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Cooper Kupp followed up a disappointing Week 6 performance with a disappointing Week 7 performance in what appeared to be an exploitable matchup against the Falcons that resulted in the fantasy WR60 finish for the week. The outcome only dropped him one spot in the overall rankings to the WR4 through Week 7, and his target rate still leads Rams receivers by a healthy margin.
Kupp will face a Bengals defense with a 32.2 aFPA to wide receivers that's twelfth-fewest in the league. In a statistical oddity, Cincinnati is the only team among the bottom-10 in aFPA to quarterbacks which also has an aFPA to wide receivers above the bottom-16 (the Bengals have the 10th-lowest aFPA to wide receivers at 32.2). None of this is enough to avoid Kupp as a WR1 option, as he still leads Rams receiving options with eight red-zone targets, and his 17.8% target rate leads all NFL wide receivers who've played in all seven games.
Week 7 at Atlanta Falcons
Cooper Kupp had his worst outing of the season in Week 6 against the 49ers, catching just four passes on six targets for 17 yards. The fact that he remains the fantasy WR3 overall speaks to his dominance outside of that game. Kupp's 17.9% target rate continues to lead all Rams skill players and his seven red-zone targets also lead the team. The Rams just happened to face a 49ers team limiting opposing wide receivers to the lowest aFPA in the league at 24.4, and that's about all you can take away from Kupp's Week 6 performance.
The Rams now face the Atlanta Falcons, a defense that's allowed the third-most aFPA to wide receivers at 45.9. Kupp's projected matchup with slot cornerback Damonte Kazee is absolutely exploitable, and along with Atlanta's decent aFPA to running backs that should nudge the Rams' offense toward the pass, Kupp should see both volume and high-scoring opportunity to go along with it. Kupp is an easy start as a WR1 in Week 7.
Week 6 vs San Francisco 49ers
Cooper Kupp continued his torrid streak in Week 5 despite seeing his lowest snap share of the season at 67%. Kupp was targeted 17 times for an absurdly high target rate of 35.4%, and he turned that volume into nine receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown, making him the fantasy WR9 for Week 5. Overall, Kupp stands as the fantasy WR3, heights that even his most ardent offseason supporters could not have expected him to reach.
Kupp faces the 49ers defense in Week 6, and he'll see frequent coverage from slot cornerback K'Waun Williams, which should be a challenging matchup. Despite San Francisco having held wide receivers to a fourth-best 28.4 aFPA, Vegas projects this to be the third-highest scoring game of the week, giving the Rams an implied team total of 26 points. Kupp continues to be heavily targeted in the red zone, and his three red-zone touchdowns are tied for second-most. Despite the difficult matchup, Kupp is simply seeing too much target volume to even consider benching him right now.
Week 5 at Seattle Seahawks
Cooper Kupp scored 22.9 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR scoring formats in Week 4, a performance that elevated him to the WR3 overall. Any concerns about his late-season injury in 2018 have evaporated, and his target volume should make him a strong WR1 weekly. Kupp was targeted 15 times last week, and he's yet to receive fewer than nine targets in a game. His 46 total targets don't just lead Rams wide receivers, it's the second-highest target total among all wide receivers.
The Seahawks defense has been fairly stingy to opposing wide receivers, with a 29.8 aFPA figure that's sixth-lowest in the NFL. This number was only slightly lower than Arizona's 31.5 aFPA, and that matchup didn't slow down Kupp in Week 4, partly because of his heavy usage in the slot. His matchup with Seattle's slot cornerback Jamar Taylor is one he should be able to take advantage of, and he's a good bet to put up WR1 numbers in Week 5.
Week 4 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cooper Kupp has arguably been the best fantasy asset on the Rams roster this season. He's the overall fantasy WR10 in 0.5 PPR scoring formats, he leads his team in targets, and he's increased his fantasy output each week. Kupp has benefitted somewhat from Jared Goff experiencing a high rate of pressure, as Kupp's 6.7-yard aDOT equates to routes that are quick to develop.
Tampa Bay, the Rams' Week 4 opponent, has allowed an aFPA of 36.0 to wide receivers, 15th-fewest out of 32 teams. This isn't a matchup to shy away from, since regardless of where Kupp lines up, he'll be facing a cornerback who's struggled so far in 2019. This matchup supports a pass-heavy game script, and Vegas gives the Rams the highest implied team total of the week, tied with the Chargers who are facing the defensively-challenged Dolphins. Kupp is quite safe as a WR1 start.
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
Cooper Kupp has come the closest to returning value on his ADP among Rams wide receivers, and he's currently the fantasy WR29 in 0.5 PPR scoring. He's slightly behind Cooks and Woods in snap share, but leads the team in target rate at 14.1%, and leads Los Angeles with 0.22 PPR points per snap.
Kupp draws the softest primary matchup among Rams wide receivers opposite Cleveland's slot cornerback T.J. Carrie. He also has an aDOT of 6.0 yards along with the 5th-most yards after the catch among all wide receivers, and if Cleveland's defense continues its pass-rushing success, Kupp should benefit from quick passes and crossing routes. Kupp is as good bet to return WR2 value in Week 3.
